The horse racing broadcaster provides five tips for this weekend's racing at Ayr and Newbury, including his pick for the Scottish Grand National.
A blend of National Hunt and Flat in the nine races on ITV on Saturday, with competitive handicaps rubbing shoulders with Classic trials.
The Scottish National is one of the big betting races of the year, though with a top weight rated just 145 and a field nine below the maximum, it may have suffered slightly this year from its proximity to Aintree. Cheltenham Festival form is well represented, especially the Kim Muir where three of the first four home (Ask Brewster, Road To Home and Kim Roque) all line up in opposition once again. King of Answers ran second in the National Hunt Chase and would be a popular local success, but preference is for another novice in Ultima third, QUEBECOIS 15/2 (15:35 Ayr). Partnered by Harry Cobden, he got into a great jumping rhythm which I always feel is a crucial attribute in this race. There are very few long runs between fences, hence the only opportunity to improve from the back is by consistently jumping solidly. Even though it is likely Quebecois will be ridden close to the pace, if he repeats his metronomic accuracy at the obstacles he could prove hard to run down. In the final weeks of his association with the Nicholls yard, Cobden would no doubt love to land a major prize in these colours after the events around No Drama This End.
The Cobden/Nicholls combination could find themselves in the winners enclosure earlier on in the afternoon with SANS BRUIT 3/1 (13:10 Ayr), who made a valiant attempt at winning the Red Rum at Aintree for the third time just a week ago. It is a quick turnaround, but the structure of the weights suits well with Matata, his chief danger, keeping a few out of the weights. Matata also backs up quickly after last being seen careering the wrong side of the Canal Turn after his tack had slipped in the Topham, and hopefully with a solid pace to help him settle J J Slevin can have a more pleasurable experience this time. He is however still off a mark 4lb higher than his Cheltenham win from earlier in the season and that did not prove strong form, so in receipt of nearly 2 stone Sans Bruit can reward Harry Cobden’s sacrifice in getting down to 10st 2lbs.
Another piece of Festival form well represented at Ayr is the County Hurdle where several from there line up in the Scottish Champion. After meeting varying degrees of trouble, Tellherthename and Gibbs Island will be popular with the form of the Lacey yard – also a plus for the latter. Even though OOH BETTY 12/1 (EW) (14:20 Ayr) finished behind them that day, she ran well for a long way and lines up here off the same mark as when she made the frame in the race last year behind Cracking Rhapsody and Kabral Du Mathan. That race turned out to be very strong form with four next time out winners and just like with Matata, the presence of a highly rated top weight in Tutti Quanti structures the weights nicely for her. Ooh Betty may have to lead up the main body of the field rather than make the running if Tutti Quanti is on better behaviour at the start than she was at Cheltenham. I have made the case of several occasions in this column about how underrated Ben Clarke is as a trainer (54/370 A/E 1.20), and at a double figure price at present she can again make the frame.
Away from Ayr, CATCHING THE MOON 5/1 (13:25 Newbury) looks an interesting contender in the Fred Darling. She looked as if a step up to 7f would suit when winning the Firth of Clyde at Ayr over 6f last September, and the booking of Ryan Moore to ride catches the eye as he has only ridden once for the Fahey yard in the UK since 2021. Richard has recently added his son Peter to the license so would no doubt love to celebrate that with a major victory early in their association.
The big field Flat handicap of the day is the Spring Cup where SHOUT 17/2 (15:10 Newbury) may fare better than he did in the Lincoln with that run under his belt. Unlike the Faheys, the Crisfords announced this week an end to their joint license, with Ed set to take over the reins in his own right of Shiekh Ahmed’s Jebel Ali stables in Dubai later in the year. Shout is reunited with Oisin Murphy, who was in the saddle when he made the frame in last year’s Balmoral at Ascot off the same mark as today and Shout can strip fitter here.
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