The horse racing broadcaster provides his five picks for Day 2 of the York Ebor Festival.
The first sign of rain and the field sizes explode with 92 runners initially declared for the five races on ITV on Thursday, and all of the races offering at least three EW places.
The Group 2 Lowther for juveniles is first up and has attracted one of the largest fields in its history with 19 slated to line up after decs. That does complicate matters for LIBERTANGO 7/4 (13:50 York) who likes to come from off the pace, so will have a bigger field to negotiate and has been handed a high enough draw in stall 15. There are a couple of things that are very much in her favour, the first being the strong likelihood that she is the best horse in the race. She was very impressive at Ascot in the Albany and with five next time out the race has worked out solidly. Libertango could not add to that tally when beaten by Senorita Bonita at Newmarket, but the winner is a very smart filly and the third horse Alwaysanangel won a Listed race in Ireland next time out. The other factor in her favour is that two of her main rivals Moonrise and Livenka are also drawn high and can give her a good trail into the race. Confidence would be increased if no obvious draw bias is evident on Wednesday (writing before racing), but that matters more in handicaps where there is a more equal level of ability than juvenile races.
The Albany form is once again in the spotlight in the stampede for the valuable sales race, courtesy of SUN GODDESS 10/11 (14:25 York) who is one of those five horses who won next time out and then took her form to a new level when winning the Group 1 Phoenix at the Curragh. She backs up quickly and carries a 7lb penalty for that win, but she beat the colts that day so there are no worries on that score here. Like Libertango she has a high draw to overcome but again has a clear class edge. The main dangers are from the stable that have won the last three renewals of this race, Clive Cox, headed by Satellite of Love especially as he is drawn over on the other side in stall 6. At a bigger price, Pride of Toledo made more appeal from an each way perspective but he, like Sun Goddess, is drawn high so it is hard to see him making sufficient improvement to beat the favourite who sets a high bar for a race of this type.
The first of the handicaps up next where Bullet Point and POINT LYNAS 12/1 (15:00 York) look the two against the field. Bullet Point was bound for Australia when running twice in quick succession at this meeting last season and is one of the most physically imposing horses in training. Things did not work out Down Under, but he showed signs of a resurgence in first time cheekpieces at Ascot and should go close, but the form of the Ed Bethell yard coupled with the excellent track record of Point Lynas tips the scales in his favour. The Bethell yard are 13/31 (A/E 1.62) in August whilst Point Lynas York form figures read 512214. There does not look to be massive competition for the lead, and he can once again prove hard to get by.
The feature race of the day is the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks where the main question will be how Kalpana has come out of a career best effort in the King George. She has looked an improved horse this season and on form looks the clear pick, but that effort must have taken a fair bit out of her and the yard are quieter than they were heading into Ascot. Her chief rival Minnie Hauk also has a hard race however, and the rest of the line up is made up of three-year-olds and the classic generation of fillies, Diamond Necklace aside, have looked a modest bunch. Best of them looks to be LEGACY LINK (EW) 12/1 (15:35 York) and a plausible case can be made for backing her each way at a double figure price. Given she is also Juddmonte owned, it is interesting she runs in opposition to Kalpana and her Ascot run can be forgiven as coming both too quick and a tack issue which resulted in her running without her crossed nose band. She was strong at the finish here in the Musidora and recency bias could result in her going off over the odds.
Finally the Oaks form is again in the spotlight via A LA PROCHAINE 5/1 (16:10 York) who finished fourth at Epsom on only her third career run. Sensibly given time to recover from her exertions, the rain of the last 48 hours is very much in her favour and dropped in grade she can regain the winning thread in the Henry Cecil Galtres. She performed well in a race that was not run to suit her hold up style at Chester and there could well be more improvement to come.
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