The horse racing broadcaster runs through the entire Arc field and selects his top five for Sunday's big race at Longchamp.
Here is my runner-by-runner guide to Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, along with my predicted top five.
1. GIAVELOTTO – Downed Kalpana in the September Stakes. Andrea Atzeni flies in from Hong Kong to renew their association from 2023, but Giavelotto has been generally found wanting at this level and horses older than five have a poor record in the Arc. Any rain would be a negative. **
2. WHITE BIRCH – Third in the 2023 Derby and gained revenge over Auguste Rodin in the 2024 Tattersalls Gold Cup. Lightly campaigned since then, and twice behind Los Angeles this season. Returns to 1m 4f for the first time in nearly two years. Any rain would suit. **
3. ARROW EAGLE – Won four of his five races this season but was well held behind Byzantine Dream in the Foy and has drawn badly in 16. It would be a huge surprise if he figured. *
4. SOSIE – Fourth last year and has two successes at Group 1 level this season. Well drawn in stall 3 and found the ground too quick in the Eclipse. His second to Byzantine Dream in the Prix Foy should have put him spot on for this, representing master trainer Andre Fabre who has won the race eight times. *****
5. LOS ANGELES – One place ahead of Sosie when third last year, but two places behind him in the Foy and connections reach for cheekpieces. Stall 14 makes it tougher, and with Ryan Moore still on the sideline he has much more to do this time around. **
6. BYZANTINE DREAM – Bidding to end the Japanese hoodoo in the Arc and had several of the field behind him in the Prix Foy, raising a nation’s expectations. He has, however, not been lucky with the draw in stall 15 and it will need an inventive ride from Oisin Murphy to overcome that negative. Would also not want rain. ***
7. ESTRANGE – Non-runner.
8. QUISISANA – A late bloomer who has been better than ever this year, landing her first Group 1 last time in the Romanet. However, away from her own sex and in a much deeper race it will take another major step forward to be involved. **
9. KALPANA – Cheekpieces are applied after a surprise defeat by Giavelotto in the September Stakes, which the same connections used as the prep race for Enable. Rain will enhance her chances and her King George second to Calandagan is a top level piece of form, but expect her to come up short from stall 10. ***
10. AVENTURE– Runner-up last year to Bluestocking and her only defeat this season came at the hands of Calandagan in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud. Winner of the Vermeille from Gezora, but drawing stall 12 complicates matters for multiple French Champion Maxime Guyon, still waiting to land his first Arc. ****
11. DARYZ – The first of the seven three-year-olds, he sports the famous Aga Khan silks and had shown steady progress, which persuaded connections to supplement him for the Juddmonte International. He found things too much on that occasion, and a better effort last time behind Croix Du Nord still leaves him needing more to figure despite drawing well in stall 2. ***
12. LEFFARD – Has drawn lucky stall 6, which has provided six winners in the last 30 years, but that statistical quirk is not enough to warrant any upgrade here having been well beaten in the Niel behind Cualificar. He did win the Grand Prix De Paris, but that looked a modest renewal. **
13. CUALIFICAR – Second in the French Derby over 10f, he won the Niel on trials day, overcoming trouble to get up close home. He represents Godolphin, so has the assistance of William Buick and is another runner for Andre Fabre, whose first winner of the race – Trempolino back in 1987 – had also finished runner-up in the French Derby. ***
14. HOTAZHELL – Beat Delacroix in the mud at Doncaster in the Futurity at the end of his two-year-old season, but has struggled like a lot of his yard to find his form this campaign. Any rain would be welcome, and Jessie Harrington has been back among the winners in recent days and has the potential to improve at 12f. Drawn wide enough in 11 but could outrun his odds if the rain arrives. ****
15. CROIX DU NORD – Home Derby winner and one of two Japanese three-year-olds. Beat Daryz in the Prince D’Orange, but that race has not thrown up the winner of the Arc since Saumarez in 1990. Coupled with drawing out in the car park in stall 17, he will need an inventive ride to give Japan that elusive Arc. ***
16. ALOHA ALII – Rounds off the three-pronged challenge from Japan. Behind Croix Du Nord in their 2000 Guineas, he is by far the best drawn of the Japanese trio and has also proven he handles soft ground with his win in the D’Ornano. The worry is whether he has the necessary class and can see out the 12f, but there are few better riders in the world than Christophe Lemaire. Dangerous if allowed a soft time up front. ****
17. MINNIE HAUK – This year’s Classic winners have largely proved forgettable, but she comes here with an unblemished record this year including wins in the UK and Irish Oaks in gritty fashion. Looked to show more speed at York when beating Estrange, though the latter did look a bit uncomfortable on the fast ground that day. The concern is whether she will be used up a bit early to get a position from stall 1, and Aidan O’Brien has not won the Arc since 2016. ****
18. GEZORA – A second three-year-old filly who has an Oaks success to her name, winning the Prix De Diane in June. Off since until the Vermeille when she finished second to Aventure, she should strip fitter here but was quite comfortably beaten and the suspicion remains that the French Classics are not strong. ***
Predicted top 5:
1. Sosie
2. Aventure
3. Minnie Hauk
4. Aloha Alii
5. Hotazhell
