The horse racing broadcaster offers up his selections from Saturday's racing in the UK, as the Ayr Gold Cup and Silver Cup take centre stage.
You won’t need me to tell you that autumn has arrived. Despite a brief tropical blast in the South on Friday, the rain has returned with a vengeance, and we’re entering that tricky time of year when the consistency of summer fast-ground form gives way to the squelchy specialists.
Ayr sits on the edge of a yellow wet weather warning, so keep an eye on how much rain materialises on race morning as the track hosts the Ayr Gold and Silver Cups as part of the nine-race ITV coverage.
When approaching handicaps, I tend to look for two types of horses:
1. Improvers – those the handicapper is struggling to keep up with.
2. Proven performers – those not being asked to do more than they’ve already shown they’re capable of.
The issue with the first category is that they often advertise their improvement with strong form figures and are well found in the market. Meanwhile, those dropping to marks where they can be competitive again tend to be less obvious.
COMMANCHE FALLS / (15:35 Ayr) is a case in point. A Group 3 winner in his prime, he also has a Stewards’ Cup victory to his name off a mark of 103 on soft ground. His yard has struggled this season (34/405, A/E 0.83), and partly as a result, Commanche Falls has dropped to a mark of 98—nine pounds lower than the 107 he ran off when sixth in this race last year. He recently chased home stablemate and current favourite Northern Ticker at York and is better off at the weights, yet is a significantly bigger price. At his age, he’s not open to the same progression, but he’s a solid, experienced horse who may now be on a mark from which he can still be very competitive.
Unlike Michael Dods’ yard, Karl Burke’s team can hardly be said to have had a disappointing 2025 (101/539, A/E 1.10), but SILKY WILKIE / (14:25 Ayr) hasn’t contributed to that success. It’s now more than two years since he last visited the winners’ enclosure—back in April 2023 at Musselburgh. While it’s possible his form is in terminal decline, it’s worth remembering he was part of the stable’s memorable 1-2-3 in last year’s Ayr Gold Cup, finishing second. His decline has been such that he now lines up well down the weights in the Silver Cup, no less than 13lb lower in the ratings. A reproduction of anything close to last season’s run would put him right in the mix. Drawn in stall 1, he’ll be committed to racing on the far rail, but his third-place finish over 5f at York last time showed—like Commanche Falls—that there’s life in the old horse yet. His trainer will have long identified this as an ideal opportunity to exploit the falling mark.
There is an improver in the field in Nariko, who handles cut in the ground and has progressed steadily under Oisin Murphy. He’s much more prominent in the market, underlining how obvious that type of horse tends to be to punters.
The potential for soft ground was key in the selection of THEORYOFEVERYTHING / (13:15 Ayr) in the 1m handicap that opens the card. He won over course and distance earlier in the season and, while he’s towards the upper end of his capabilities handicap-wise, if the rain arrives, that could more than compensate given his excellent soft-ground record. That tilts the scales in his favour over another Michael Dods-trained horse, Northern Express, who has a similar profile to Commanche Falls—dropping from 105 to 98 this season and showing signs at York last time that he’s on the way back. I had earmarked him off that run for the Balmoral at Ascot on Champions Day, but he could go well here, though the trip might stretch him if it comes up soft.
There have been few more startling debuts I’ve commentated on than that of Into The Sky, who lines up in the Mill Reef at Newbury on Saturday. Sent off at 80/1 at the Berkshire track on debut for Jim Boyle’s yard—who, prior to that day, were 0/146 with two-year-old debutants—he made the running and, rather than folding, just kept going further and further away from a field that included better-fancied runners from the likes of Richard Hannon and Charlie Appleby.
Encouraged by a £50,000 bonus Newbury offered for any juvenile winner at the track who goes on to win the Mill Reef—and with coffers boosted by a part-sale to Doreen Tabor—connections have paid £6,250 to supplement him for the race. It’s a big day for Jim Boyle’s Epsom-based yard, and it would be particularly fitting if he were to win, as the race is named this year in memory of Mill Reef’s jockey Geoff Lewis, who sadly passed away recently and trained in Epsom for many years after retiring from the saddle.
Into The Sky has been well supported in recent days, but in terms of form achieved so far, ROCK ON THUNDER / (15:15 Newbury)—runner-up to Lifeplan in the Gimcrack—has the stronger credentials. Make no mistake, it wasn’t a vintage renewal, but he impressed with the turn of foot he showed, and the pair pulled clear. At the prices, I prefer the proven over the potential, and if I’m honest, I’m still struggling to fully believe what Into The Sky showed that day! The clock backs it up, but the price he was allowed to go off makes me cautious about taking such a short one this time around.
All season I’ve been talking about the open nature of Group sprint races, and big-priced winners continue to oblige—the latest being Big Mojo at Haydock. At a slightly lower level and with a bit more cut in the ground, hopefully GRAND GREY / (13:30 Newbury) can land the Group 3 sprint on the card. He makes life difficult for himself by missing the start, but his second to Sajir in the Abernant on his UK debut earlier this season reads well, and his French form shows he handles soft ground. As he’s often slowly away, it gives him more time to make up lost lengths—and one thing you know for sure with Jamie Spencer is he won’t panic!
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