The horse racing broadcaster offers his best bets for the final Saturday before Royal Ascot, and picks out some important trends ahead of next week's major meeting.
With Royal Ascot so close, the racing on Saturday has a low-key feel with seven races on ITV split between York, Chester and Sandown.
One of the two Listed races is Sandown’s Scurry Stakes for three-year-olds over the straight 5f, and here the speedy STAR OF MEHMAS / (14:40 Sandown) can bag the rail and prove tough to pass. She stamped herself as speedy when she clocked a 10.58-second penultimate furlong while breaking her maiden at Lingfield. Only just caught in similar company at York last time, she should prove hard to run down.
Early speed coupled with a good gate could also be the key to a better effort from TATTIE BOGLE / (15:20 Chester). Ability to get into gear quickly – rather than hitting a highest top speed – is much more of an asset at Chester as if you can get a position early, others need to cover ground to improve their positions. Joe Fanning has always excelled with this type of ride and if Tattie Bogle can show his usual gate speed then Charlie Johnston’s grey can dominate the race and reverse recent form with Milford, who looks the chief danger.
At York, it may be worth a speculative throw at the stumps with GREEN PURSUIT / (13:50 York), who has been priced up among the outsiders, which does not do justice to his chances. He improved for a stable change to Adrian Keatley and his stable were in a quiet spell when he ran in a competitive York handicap last time, which also featured Tattie Bogle and Milford. The yard are 3/10 in June (A/E ratio of 1.93) with another two finishing second, and he has a postage stamp weight due to his age allowance.
One to check out away from the ITV coverage is SIRIUS A / (18:20 Leicester), who shaped very well on debut in a race at Newbury that is working out particularly well. Beaten less than three lengths that day, the winner, Humidity, has been purchased by Wathnan and heads for the Chesham at Royal Ascot, while the 7th, 10th and 11th all won next time with three of the other four to have run making the frame. This represents a drop in class into a Restricted maiden from an open Maiden, and he looks the bet of the day.
STATS ALL FOLKS
There will be blogs every day for Royal Ascot, so with that in mind here are a few stats that might help shape some of the views during the week. These relate specifically to the Royal meeting, so the sample sizes aren’t always the biggest but there are still a few in here that raised an eyebrow or two.
Trainers
This is the category I always believe to be the most influential, and Kevin Ryan (11/157, A/E 1.60) and Karl Burke (7/81, A/E 1.52) are the two that stand out. The latter can be narrowed down to two- and three- year-olds, but Ryan has also chipped in with his share of handicap winners, as well as sprinters both young and old.
On the negative front, Charlie Appleby has fared surprisingly poorly with 15/186 (A/E 0.84) but that has been worse over the last five years (6/75, A/E 0.66). Blanks in the last two seasons reflect that Godolphin are just 1/38 in the last two years at Royal Ascot, with Wild Tiger the sole success in the Hunt Cup for Saeed Bin Suroor. Of those 38 runners, 22 went off at single-figure prices.
Jockeys
It has been a quieter season for Danny Tudhope (11/132, A/E 1.91) but past Royal Ascots have proved very fruitful, twice riding four winners in 2019 and 2022. Hollie Doyle (6/94, A/E 1.85) has had plenty of big-priced winners – Bradsell at 8/1 the shortest with the rest being 12/1,14/1, 22/1 and 33/1 twice.
It certainly gives Hollie the family bragging rights for the time being, as Tom Marquand (7/132, A/E 0.77) has, despite two winners in each of the last two seasons, not a great overall career record here, while Kieran Shoemark (1/63, A/E 0.42) will be hoping for a change in fortune with his only winner coming in 2017, now 60 rides ago. While he has a reasonable career record at Royal Ascot, Richard Kingscote is another jockey who will be looking to snap a losing run of 66 since winning on The Grand Visir in 2019.
Sires
Despite Godolphin’s modest record, Dubawi (24/198, A/E 1.30) remains the daddy on the sire front. Fast ground looks likely, which should be in his favour of maintaining that good record, and he has both lead Artist and Notable Speech running for him in the Queen Anne.
The surprising negative is for a sire who is renowned for early season juveniles – Mehmas. He himself was only just beaten at the Royal meeting by Caravaggio in the Coventry, but he is yet to sire a Royal Ascot winner from 53 runners, though in fairness most have gone of biggish prices with just five in single figures. Given how well his progeny often sell at the Breeze Ups, it remains a striking statistic that few of them make it to Royal Ascot with a leading chance. This year, Zelaina is a short-priced favourite for the Queen Mary for Karl Burke, representing his best ever chance of breaking the hoodoo.
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