The horse racing broadcaster picks out his selections for Saturday at Newcastle and Newbury, and adds one choice from Bangor-on-Dee.
A real mix of quality and quantity in this week’s two feature races which form the centrepieces of six races on ITV from Newbury and Newcastle.
The quality comes via the stellar line up for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. Usually just a minor early season foray on the path to the Champion Hurdle, but this year it promises to provide the answers to several burning questions.
Can Constitution Hill bounce back to form? How good is The New Lion and where does Anzadam fit into the Mullins pecking order?
The biggest question mark clearly concerns Constitution Hill. Imperious in his demolition of State Man in the 2023 Champion Hurdle, he looked set to dominate the hurdling scene for years to come. Two years on and niggling injuries, misfiring racecourse gallops and a lack of respect for hurdles see him completely split opinion. This time the preparations seem to have gone more smoothly, including his racecourse gallop at Newbury last week, but it was also clear in his far less exalted galloping companions 12 months earlier, that building up his confidence was also a key objective of the morning. This time he wasn’t crossing swords with Sir Gino but with Therapist (well beaten at Taunton on Thursday) and Act of Innocence (who runs in the opener at Newbury on Friday) and whilst he readily picked up both it also failed to address the concerns as to how he would hurdle at race pace.
What had previously been an asset had turned into an achilles heel after his disdain for the obstacles led to capsizes at Cheltenham and Aintree, and then far more worryingly a seemingly complete loss of confidence in Ireland. Steps will clearly have been taken to address this but there is no home substitute for the pressures of a race. There is also the added concern of a point that I make regularly, that this is not his main target. Christmas at Kempton appeals more as he will be more fully wound up before heading to Cheltenham if things have gone well.
This therefore looks the chance for THE NEW LION (14:00 Newcastle) to take his scalp. Dan Skelton is clearly targeting high value early season prizes as he attempts to this time make his prize money lead over Willie Mullins an unassailable one. The New Lion progressed well last season and the acid tests as to whether he is a potential Champion Hurdler may well face sterner examination later in the campaign. For now, he appeals as the one more certain to give his running on the day so is preferred.
The appearance of the Willie Mullins trained Anzadam adds further spice though, at this stage his form is a long way short of that required to win here. Unbeaten over hurdles, he was expected to line up in last weeks’ Morgiana but instead comes here. The fact he has two quite long breaks now in his profile suggest things have not been straight forward and perhaps this is just a sighter to see where he and therefore other Mullins hopes stand.
The Gold Cup at Newbury has attracted a maximum field of 24 and is it worth noting that there is significant rain forecast during Saturday morning. It is wide open but with his strong travelling nature and ability to handle deep ground, THE DOYEN CHIEF (14.55 Newbury) looks equipped to run well. Traditionally second season chasers have their opportunities in this race, and he has also had the benefit of a run at Bangor so should have no fitness worries if it becomes attritional. There are plenty of other second season candidates, but several have already won major handicaps given the grader a chance to hike them up the ratings – Myretown and Respendent Grey for example. That has led to the top of the weights looking quite compressed and I was tempted by Monty’s Star, who clearly has a touch of class but the steadier of 12 stone in deep ground and a quiet spell for the De Bromhead yard makes Alan King’s chaser appeal more.
Elsewhere on the Newbury card, DOMINIC’S FAULT (13:40 Newbury) was like Constitution Hill amongst the gallopers on display at the track last week. He got brought down three out in a race won by Loverdose at Sandown in January and re-opposes on 13lb better terms. This again could be an example of a horse the handicapper hasn’t had the chance to catch up with yet, up against a few that have been reassessed after victories such as favourite French Ship (up eight), Santos Blue (up seven) and the already mentioned Loverdose.
If the rain does arrive then I very much like the double figure price of HOT FUSS (14:15 Newbury) in the Gerry Feilden (currently at odds of 12-1). A decent Flat horse, he took well to hurdling finishing in the frame in the Fred Winter off just a 2lb lower mark. He had a pipe opener on the level in the November Handicap and conditions could be right up his street here. It would be no surprise if he was sent off a good deal shorter, whilst in the last race JAVERT ALLEN (15:35 Newbury) can continue the good form of trainer Jane Williams (3/10 last 14 days A/E 1.18). He impressed with his jumping here when making all last December and can repeat the feat.
Away from the main action Sam Twiston-Davies heads for Bangor where LAGANHILL (12:37 Bangor) looks to have a decent chance stepping up in trip on only his second run over fences. He handles soft ground, has a course win to his name over hurdles, and the benefit of a run at Carlisle three weeks ago. A mark of 126 looks very reasonable.
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