The horse racing broadcaster makes his selections for the second day of the Cheltenham November Meeting and adds two from Wetherby.
“It never rains but it pours.”
After Taunton was abandoned on Thursday because of lack of rain, the arrival of Storm Claudia has Cheltenham battening down the hatches and hoping the more extreme levels of predicted rainfall do not materialise.
The ground will be unusually testing, which can upend the early-season form achieved under much faster conditions. For those returning from close-season breaks, it will place far more emphasis on their first-up fitness than their trainers would like.
The feature race of the six currently slated for ITV coverage (with increased content from Wetherby and possibly coverage from Navan as the fallback position if Cheltenham does not race) is the Gold Cup, where topweight Jagwar bids to continue his meteoric rise through the ranks. I called his chasing debut at Wetherby, where he was a bit cumbersome at his fences before asserting on the run-in—a template that was to prove familiar come the end of the season. That initial win was off a mark of 118, no less than 30lb lower than he will line up off on Saturday. He still doesn’t always look a natural jumper, but even in his Festival win he pricked his ears when he got to the front, suggesting it was still coming easily enough to him. There are no ground concerns, just the slight worry about fitness levels off such a lofty mark under a big weight. He is still very much respected.
Venetia Williams’ horses are always said to come into their own in the mud (though in fact they only marginally outperform the market under such conditions, A/E 1.02 Soft and Heavy), and certainly Hunter Legend has plenty of form with cut in the ground. Another improver, this represents a jump in class, but receiving weight from most of his rivals is a plus. This meeting, however, has tended to come early enough for the Williams horses—her last success was way back in 2003, a losing sequence which now numbers over 70. There have been a fair few seconds in that time, but it is pause for thought.
VINCENZO / (14:20 Cheltenham) could be the one to strike the right balance between the two. The stable targets early-season handicaps and have made their usual fast start (7/13 in October and November this season, A/E 2.03). Vincenzo has plenty of form on soft ground. Dylan Johnston can still take a useful 3lb off his back, and as a second-season chaser there is still likely upside in his mark. He could well just be sharper first-up than Jagwar.
One horse who has always loved the mud is BRENTFORD HOPE / (13:45 Cheltenham). Those with long memories may remember a striking Flat debut under Jamie Spencer where he cruised to the front without his jockey moving. Whilst he never quite delivered on that promise, he has reinvented himself a couple of times when there has been lots of juice in the ground, and Saturday gives him the opportunity to do so again on his chasing debut. This is very much a ground-driven selection, as a Cheltenham novice chase would hardly have been the game plan for a son of Camelot after that debut win all those years ago, but the Derham yard are another in great heart (13/47 October and November, A/E 1.43).
There are few tougher horses than GOWEL ROAD / (14:55 Cheltenham), and he bids to go one better than his second in the race last season, again under 12 stone. That day he bumped into a handicap blot in Doyen Quest, and whilst he is 3lb higher, there doesn’t look to be another horse of that potential in this season’s line-up. Likely to get his own way in front, he has his own way of getting from one side of his hurdles to the other, but is tremendously tough in a finish, as he showed when winning the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle in the mud on Trials Day. He has to give away a lot of weight, but don’t be deterred as his class can pull him through.
Away from Cheltenham, a couple of Joel Parkinson/Sue Smith horses catch the eye. With Joel now added to the licence, the horses have seemed a bit further forward this season, as usually December was the time they began to fire. GLEN ROAD / (14:35 Wetherby) and CERENDIPITY / (15:43 Wetherby) both shaped well on their returns and will strip fitter here.
Glen Road very much caught my eye at Wetherby last time, closing off steadily having been forced to switch approaching the last. He has done well since going handicapping and is one to keep a close eye on in the weeks ahead.
Cerendipity’s race is part of the ITV coverage, and he has proved admirably consistent and versatile ground-wise since going chasing. He has plenty of form off his current mark, and the booking of Gavin Sheehan catches the eye (3/16 for the yard, A/E 1.46), those winners including Konfusion at Wetherby at the Charlie Hall meeting. Sheehan rides up North quite a bit as Jamie Snowden sends his horses far and wide, and this looks to be a blossoming link-up.
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