The horse racing broadcaster makes his selections for Saturday at Sandown, including one tip for the Becher Chase at Aintree.
It is the chasers who hold centre stage this week with two Sandown Grade 1’s amongst the eight ITV races on Saturday, along with a race over the National fences in the Becher Chase and a few clues for the Welsh National in the London equivalent.
A year ago, after his second successive Tingle Creek win, few would have anticipated Jonbon being no better than third best in the market for his hat trick attempt. That, along with fitting of first time cheekpieces, show how his star has fallen and even factoring in any crossed wires he seems to have with Cheltenham, his defeats at the hands of L’eau Du Sud and Il Etait Temps have lacked the fluency and panache of his earlier victories. The application of this type of headgear is interesting as it is an angle the stable use to good effect (19/102 A/E 1.52 when applied for the first time) but with Jonbon previously tending to get too revved up beforehand rather than requiring motivating, it does have the potential to backfire as well.
L’Eau Du Sud jumped impeccably at Cheltenham and that can be a big asset down the back straight at Sandown, but afterwards Dan Skelton blamed himself for a pre–Festival Warwick prep run for his Arkle fourth and said he was better fresh. If so that does mean the turnaround from the Shloer to the Tingle Creek may be sharp enough. IL ETAIT TEMPS (15:00 Sandown) lowered Jonbon’s colours at Sandown on the final day of last season and it may be time to recognise a new star in the 2m division. He is not a flashy horse and hence has been a bit of a slow burn in terms of gaining recognition but has won four times in Grade 1 company, and this race has been targeted by the Mullins camp right from the start of the season. The Tingle Creek marks the first crossing of swords between the Mullins and Skelton yards this domestic campaign after their prolonged struggle to be Champion trainer last season and it can be the Irish handler who comes out on top here.
However Jonbon fares, LULAMBA (13:50 Sandown) should make his class tell in the days other Grade 1 – the Henry VIII Novices Chase. His chasing debut at Exeter, whilst featuring four less fences than normal due to low sun, still showed a decent enough jumping technique. The only real concern came during the preliminaries, when his enthusiasm to get on with things led to a couple of unscheduled circuits of the pre-parade ring. He does face a potentially decent rival in Lump Sum whose impressive chasing debut at Uttoxeter was franked by the second horse Jax Junior winning at Kempton, but that does remain significantly below Lulamba’s top class juvenile hurdling form of last season.
Elsewhere at Sandown KIKIJO (13:20 Sandown) won well at Cheltenham, displaying a fast fluent hurdling technique and can confirm the form with favourite that day Supremely West. A fair bit was made of the latter taking the inner route there but the fact he couldn’t make it past Gowel Road, who was the other one to stay on that part of the track, and the fact Supremely West has already qualified for the Pertemps Final off a mark where he will get a run, are both factors which make Kikijo appeal more. He runs in the colours of former Champion jockey Richard Johnson who went to £60k to buy him to stay in the Hobbs/Johnson yard when he went through the ring in May, suggesting he has always been viewed as a decent prospect by the stable. Conditions on the Sandown hurdles course are going to be gruelling, but Kikijo has shown his ability to handle the mud and a win here would see him gain a guaranteed place in the Pertemps Final at the Festival.
The last race at Sandown is the London National and it features a horse I backed ante post this week for the Welsh equivalent in TANGANYIKA (15:35 Sandown) of Venetia Williams. This was off the back of a Cheltenham return where he got quite an aggressive ride suggesting he was blowing away the cobwebs for another day which I thought would be at Chepstow over Christmas. A win here would involve a 4lb penalty for the Welsh National, which may not be ideal, but he is up against a similar profile horse in O’Connell making a rare Southern foray for the Joel Parkinson/Sue Smith combination. The addition of Joel to the license has coincided with the horses being more forward this season as Konfusion showed when winning at Newcastle last weekend. Venetia’s horses by contrast have been a bit slower to come to hand but Tanganyika is definitely one to keep a close eye on this December and can press his Welsh National claims here.
Away from Sandown, the Becher Chase at Aintree can see GABORIOT (14:40 Aintree) put up another solid run over the National fences after his Grand Sefton 2nd last month. The stable are amassing a good record in these races and he looks a more solid stayer this trip than a few of his other rivals from that race. Mahon’s Glory and Mr Vango look sure to set a good gallop and the fact he won over as far as 4m in his Hunter Chase days is in his favour. He has little chance of a mark this low of getting in the National itself so this would be the most logical target to build his season around.
Visit Betway’s horse racing betting page.
