The horse racing broadcaster offers up his best bets from the start of the turf season at Doncaster and an All-Weather card at Kempton.
Flat racing takes centre stage on ITV this weekend with the start of the turf season at Doncaster, complemented by a strong All-Weather card at Kempton. These make up the eight races shown on ITV before coverage switches to Meydan for the Sheema Classic and the Dubai World Cup on ITV4.
The main focus at Doncaster will be the first big handicap of the season – the Lincoln – which looks set to be run on ground with some cut in it. At the front of the market are two leading contenders. La Botte could hardly have produced a more eye‑catching run at Wolverhampton when caught well out of his ground before storming home up the straight. That, unsurprisingly, propelled him to the top of the betting, and his central draw gives Jamie Spencer options, though at the price it might be a white‑knuckle ride. The other obvious contender is Eternal Force, who rattled off three victories after being gelded and represents the William Haggas stable, which has a strong record in the race with three victories since 2010.
Both have been well found in the market, though, and Thunder Roar and GALERON 14/1 (EW) (15:32 Doncaster) appeal more at bigger prices. Thunder Roar was very unfortunate to be disqualified in the Spring Mile last season and is proven under the conditions. He has risen in the weights but placed off just 2lb lower at York at the end of last season and had a run to blow away the cobwebs at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. Preference is marginally for Galeron because of how far he has dropped in the weights since finishing fifth in this race last year. That effort came off a mark of 102, and he is 7lb lower here, coupled with the booking of capable claimer Jack Callan, who can take off another 5lb. His record at Doncaster reads 4‑5‑3‑2, with three of those runs at double‑figure prices, which he is again at the time of writing.
In the Spring Mile, INTRUSIVELY 16/1 (14:25 Doncaster) catches the eye on his first run for Mick Appleby, who initially built his reputation on improving horses that moved to his yard. These days he is a far more complete trainer in terms of the quality he commands, but a first‑up run for the stable still warrants close inspection. Intrusively’s handicap mark was inflated by a big‑priced, heavily tempo‑aided third in the Group 2 Richmond at Goodwood, and it has taken a long time for him to fall to a more realistic level. A second at the end of last season on his final start for Ed Bethell suggested that equilibrium may finally have been reached. With a wind operation, being gelded, and the stable switch, he looks worth chancing.
Fresh is definitely best for SPYCATCHER 4/1 (13:50 Doncaster), who looks to repeat his victory of 12 months ago in the Cammidge Stakes over 6f. His record off breaks longer than 100 days (including debut) reads 4‑1‑1‑1‑3‑1, and he will be well suited by cut in the ground. He ended last campaign with a course‑and‑distance win at a similar level, and this has likely been the early‑season target. He should get a nice lead into the race from Art Power and very much looks the one to beat given his first‑up record.
Over at Kempton, WHITCOMBE ROCKSTAR 15/2 (14:42 Kempton) has a course record of seven wins from 12 starts and lines up here on a hat‑trick after wins off marks of 86 and 88. His form tends to come in bursts, and a rise of 5lb may not be enough to stop him now he is on a roll. He gets the nod over El Burhan, who certainly looks the type to win races this season.
At what could be a surprisingly soggy Meydan, the Sheema Classic looks to have a good each‑way shape, and GIAVELLOTTO 17/2 (EW) (16:10 Meydan) looks worth supporting as he appears the better prospect to chase home Calandagan than Ethical Diamond. He has his work cut out to reverse last season’s form with Calandagan but has no fitness concerns, having run well enough in Qatar last time when the sit‑and‑sprint nature of the race did not suit. His defeat of Kalpana and second to Sosie in Hong Kong are both solid pieces of form, and hopefully the pace will not be too muddling here.
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