The horse racing commentator offers up his best bets for the second day of the Festival, including a selection in the feature race of the day, the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
13:20 Turners Novices’ Hurdle
The key here was both Final Demand and The Yellow Clay being declared for this race rather than the more attritional test of the Albert Bartlett on the New Course on Friday.
My first impression after their last performances was that this trip on decent ground would be sharp enough for both, as in the past this has been more of a speed test. The roll of honour includes several like Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Faugheen, who all dropped back down to win Champion Hurdles later on in their careers.
To oppose them means it is likely something has to give on the stats front. The New Lion is the obvious first port of call but he is bidding to defy one of the most quoted Festival stats in that Challow Hurdle winners are 0-21 when coming on to this race. The most obvious reason for this is that the Challow is often run on desperate ground ,but this year that was not the case and The New Lion was a very impressive winner, so he could well lay the bogey but I am not sure the Challow had much depth.
Instead, a small involvement each-way on a couple of bigger priced horses who may be more speed oriented appeals more. A chance is taken firstly with KISS WILL / , who made all to rout his field in a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle. It is a massive step up in grade to come here and, as mentioned yesterday, the stat he has to overcome is that Paul Townend rarely gets beaten by another Mullins horse in Grade 1 novices.
There is the potential in a small field for he and SIXMILEBRIDGE / to boss a steady gallop and utilise their turn of foot, the latter doing for Potters Charm on Trials Day. Hopefully Kiss Will is not in there to ensure a solid pace for Final Demand, and with both he and Sixmilebridge at double-figure prices they appeal as a speculative angle.
14:00 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
A sad indictment that no British-trained novice lines up in the seven-strong field, which sadly also reduces the each-way angle. I am still with DANCING CITY / but it has to be said recent events have watered down my enthusiasm. Dancing City really impressed me with his jumping last time when beating Bioluminescence and it looked as if that could throw up two Festival winners, but the latter then backed up quickly and got beaten.
Ballyburn saw the trip out well in Ireland last time and was an impressive enough winner on this day 12 months ago. His defeat at the hands of Sir Gino may well have been down to the 2m trip and Rubaud has boosted the form subsequently, but there could be some pressure on the lead from another previous Festival winner in Stellar Story. I expect Ballyburn to be all the rage on the day, especially if lots of favourites oblige on the day one.
Dancing City is a multiple Grade 1 winner and is often not given the credit he deserves. If he is within striking distance at the last there are very few horses I would prefer to be carrying my money up the hill.
14:40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
There may be a big field, but BALLYADAM’s / excellent Festival record makes plenty of appeal. Second to the well-handicapped Langer Dan in the race last year, he has also finished runner-up in a Supreme and fifth in two County Hurdles – once behind a ridiculously well-treated State Man. The relentless nature of Festival handicaps make them pretty much unique tests so previous form in the hurly burly is a big plus.
Ballyadam is slightly higher than last year after winning a three-runner race on his return, but the De Bromhead yard were quiet at the time and he may have achieved more than it appeared. The yard always seem to be brought to the boil at Festival time. Few horses would deserve a Cheltenham victory more and he looks very solid each-way in a race where there appear to be fewer handicap blots than usual.
15:20 Cross Country Chase
One of my big disappointments of the week here as Iceo Madrik (second reserve) does not look like getting a run. It is my belief that in the Cross Country handicaps the UK handicapper is underestimating the chances of French horses, and this looked the ideal vehicle to test the theory – sadly, however, he needed to be a couple of pounds higher to guarantee a run.
If, by some chance, a couple do come out in time then he will definitely be the way to go but in his absence I will go with the horse I expected to win a year ago (when the race was abandoned) in GALVIN / . His task is made harder this year by the race becoming a handicap, but he could still be too classy for this field.
16:00 Queen Mother Champion Chase
The feature race of the day and a chance for JONBON / to gain compensation for being forced to miss the race last season, when after El Fabiolo’s departure it surely would have been at his mercy.
He is a much more settled horse these days, to the extent that he actually looked as if he would come on for the run on his seasonal debut in the Shloer, whereas in the past his nervous nature had meant keeping condition on rather than off him was the issue. He is one of the most consistent top-level horses of recent seasons and would very much deserve a Festival victory, which his form going into the race fully entitles him to.
This race does have the dead eight runners for now at least and for those wanting each way alternatives then Found A Fifty and last year’s winner Captain Guinness (another De Bromhead horse likely to show much more) look the ones to focus on.
The race has had plenty of expensive failures for favourites in recent seasons, but Jonbon can prove the class act of Day 2.
16:40 Grand Annual
During a run of Cheltenham preview nights where Paul Jones was unfortunate enough to cross paths with me regularly, his arguments regarding SO SCOTTISH / have proved persuasive in a race where I have not had a strong view ever since the entries came out.
The angle revolves jointly about him being the only JP McManus entry in a race where he has an excellent record, and the fact his chasing mark has dropped based on a long series of hurdles starts. His last chase run was in the 2023 December Gold Cup when he came down when still going well four out.
The market could prove informative here and if there is strong market support that would reinforce confidence.
17:20 Champion Bumper
Unexposed horses largely coming from Ireland mean this is a race I will rarely get heavily involved in, but there are a few more UK horses with a squeak this year that I have come across during the season.
FORTUNE DE MER / was a winner at the track in November before fluffing his lines at Huntingdon where he pulled far too hard in a steadily run race. This should play to his strengths a lot more.
NO DRAMA THIS END / was the beneficiary of a steadily run affair at Warwick on New Years Eve where, significantly, all his group of well-known owners were in attendance. This is much tougher, but he made a good impression.
Last but certainly not least, EL CAIROS / showed a stunning turn of foot to win at Newbury for Gary and Josh Moore and he could be anything. Amateur David Maxwell will need to plot his way round carefully but at a very big price he could prove a diamond Giza.
