What is the Netherlands’ route to the World Cup final? Discover who their potential opponents are whether they top their group or finish as runners-up instead!
The Netherlands, who are three-time World Cup finalists, head into the 2026 tournament with high hopes and a talented squad that they can hope will get them over the line. Under new management since the 2022 edition, they can have a fresh outlook with Ronald Koeman returning to lead his team out once again. With captain Virgil van Dijk also heading to his last World Cup, Oranje have every motivation to go on to become the World Cup winner this summer. Now that the tournament is almost here, let’s take a look at what the Netherlands’ possible route to the World Cup final could be.
After the Dutch narrowly lost in the quarter-finals against the previous winners, Argentina, in 2022, they would likely be disappointed if they didn’t at least reach the same stage this year. Considering they also reached the semi-finals against England in Euro 2024, the Netherlands have a strong record of deep runs in international tournaments as of late.
Within this blog, we’ll discuss the Netherlands’ potential World Cup routes and the expected dates for each match. If the Netherlands fail to top their group, we’ve also considered the different paths they could end up taking if they end as runners-up instead.
As the tournament goes on, you can also follow all the Netherlands’ games with the latest World Cup betting odds.
The Netherlands’ chances of progressing through each round
Before we get into the Netherlands’ route to the World Cup final, let’s have a look at their chances of reaching each round (at the minimum).
Round | Odds of reaching the round |
Round of 16 | 750/1000 |
Quarter final | 1400/1000 |
Semi final | 3330/1000 |
Final | 7000/1000 |
Who do the Netherlands play in the group phase?
Though the Netherlands are one of the strongest competitors in this year’s tournament, their World Cup group could present a tough challenge. Oranje have been placed into Group F, with Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia joining them in what looks to be one of the toughest groups. Though the expectation is that they’ll beat their opponents, Japan and Sweden in particular have more than enough quality to impact their chances of progressing to the round of 32.
Looking at the FIFA rankings, Japan (18th) sit only ten positions behind the Netherlands (8th) and are in good form as of late. Sweden (38th) are not as close in the rankings, however, with attackers like Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, they certainly pose a threat. Regardless, on paper the Netherlands are the best side in this group, meaning that they should be finishing top of the pile after playing all teams.
The Netherlands’ route to the final should they win their group
So, let’s say that the Netherlands do progress past the group stage. If they manage to end up first in Group F, then what could the Netherlands’ World Cup route to the final be?
Round | Potential opponent |
Round of 32 | Morocco |
Round of 16 | Canada |
Quarter final | France |
Semi final | Spain |
Final | England |
Round of 32
June 29th vs Morocco
If the Netherlands can finish first in the Group F table, beating Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia, then it’s likely that they’ll face the runner-up of Group C. Though this means it could be one of Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, and Haiti, the odds suggest Morocco will place behind Brazil.
As the African outfit reached the semi-finals in 2022 and only lost narrowly to France, they’ve shown real quality as of late, even winning the 2026 AFCON tournament.
Round of 16
July 4th vs Canada
If the Netherlands manage to overcome Morocco in the round of 32, then the round of 16 looks like it will put them up against co-hosts Canada.
Canada are placed up against South Korea in the first knockout round and are expected to win when looking at the latest odds. However, the Asian side could still prove to be a tough challenge, so there’s a good chance that the Dutch face them instead.
Quarter-final
July 9th vs France
This is now the business-end of the tournament with the Netherlands seeming like they’ll be facing France in the quarter-finals. The round of 16 looks like it’ll have Les Bleus playing Germany, which, despite being a tough match, they’re favourites to win.
The Netherlands and France also faced each other in the Euro 2024 group stage, with the score finishing 0-0, meaning we could have a very close matchup on our hands if this game occurs!
Semi-final
July 14th vs Spain
If Oranje manage to get past France in the previous round, then the Euro 2024 champions, Spain, are their likely semi-final opponents. After losing the 2010 World Cup final to La Roja, the Netherlands will certainly want to get their own back and defeat Spain to reach the final.
Should Spain be unable to get to the semi-finals, then the Netherlands might play Belgium instead. The two nations previously faced off in the 1998 World Cup in what turned out to be a 0-0 draw, which means it’s all to play for should they face each other again.
World Cup final
July 19th vs England
Now for the greatest part of the entire tournament – the World Cup final. The Netherlands have recreated their run of 2010 and reached the final for the fourth time in their history. Who’s likely to be the final obstacle in their way?
In order for the Netherlands to win the World Cup title for the first time in their history, they’re most likely going to have to beat England. This summer’s World Cup presents both teams with the chance to win much sought-after silverware, with the Three Lions chasing a first trophy since 1966 and the Netherlands looking to finally get over the line after reaching three World Cup finals in the past.
The last time these two met was in the semi-finals of Euro 2024, where a late Oli Watkins goal was the difference in a tight game. Though, with England also being under new management after hiring Thomas Tuchel, it could be an entirely different game this time around – especially with a trophy on the line!
Should England not make it to the final, the Netherlands could play the World Cup holders, Argentina instead in what would be a replay of the 2022 quarter-final.
The Netherlands’ route to the final should they not win their group
Since football never has any guarantees, we should also be taking a look at the Netherlands’ possible World Cup route to the final if they don’t top their group.
Round | Potential opponent |
Round of 32 | Brazil |
Round of 16 | Norway |
Quarter final | England |
Semi final | Argentina |
Final | Spain |
Round of 32
June 29th vs Brazil
So, in a scenario where the Netherlands are unable to win Group F and finish as runner-up instead, then it’s most likely that they’ll play the winners of Group C. The latest odds suggest that it will be Brazil finishing first in this group, beating Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland to top spot.
This would be a great watch at such an early stage of the tournament, putting two giants of world football up against each other. The last game between the two teams was at the 2014 World Cup during the third-place playoff final. With the scoreline finishing 3-0 to the Dutch, this is a positive sign should they cross each other’s paths again. However, as serial winner Carlo Ancelotti has now taken the reins, the Netherlands are likely to have a tough game here.
If the Netherlands finished third in their group instead, they could potentially play one of the winners of Groups E, I, A, D, or B. So, the chances are this will be one of Germany, France, Mexico, USA, or Switzerland.
Round of 16
July 5th vs Norway
If the Netherlands go on to defeat the Selecao, then what does the round of 16 have in store for them?
Looking at the odds, it’s most likely that they will come across Norway at this stage. However, if they face defeat in their round of 32 match, then Ecuador could be their opposition instead.
The Netherlands last played Norway in a friendly match at the end of March, with Oranje coming out on top as 2-1 victors. Despite going 1-0 down, the Dutch fought back with goals from Virgil van Dijk and Tijani Reijnders, showing the resolve necessary to be successful at the World Cup.
Quarter-final
July 11th vs England
Now, should the Netherlands progress to the later stages of the tournament, it’s quite possible that they play England in the quarter-finals. The Three Lions are set to play Mexico in the round of 16, who, though they’re co-hosts and have some home advantage, aren’t expected to be too much of a challenge for them.
So, not finishing first in the group changes what was previously a final into a quarter-final game instead!
Semi-final
July 15th vs Argentina
If the Netherlands are able to beat Thomas Tuchel’s side, then it’s likely they will play Argentina in the semi-finals. These two sides have a great history after the 1978 World Cup final, meaning we could be in for an intense matchup!
If the Albiceleste fail to make it to the semi-final, it’s likely Portugal would take their place instead.
World Cup final
July 19th vs Spain
Now, if the Netherlands can battle through into the World Cup final despite failing to top their group, Spain are most likely to be their opponents. This would be a thrilling rematch of the 2010 final, presenting the Netherlands with an opportunity to rewrite the wrongs of their loss 16 years ago. Considering La Roja are chasing a second international trophy in a row, this will arguably be the Netherlands’ toughest challenge of all!
