This is the non-league preview you have been waiting for, with our expert using his renowned insight to reveal how each club is likely to fare
Saturday’s live BT Sport clash between Maidstone United and York City will kick off the 38th season of what is widely known as the Conference, but now goes by the name of the National League.
The match at the Gallagher Stadium marks a new era for the division as an artificial surface is used for the first time in a league fixture.
There has been a noticeable change elsewhere on the pitch over the last few seasons in the division – the relative ease at which clubs have made quick returns back to the Football League following relegation from League Two.
That is something York will be hoping to continue as they begin their campaign in Kent.
An immediate return for a relegated Football League club used to be a rarity in the ultra-competitive Conference section.
Just Carlisle United – via the play-offs in 2004/05 – and Darlington – the 1989/90 title winners – had managed it in the first 35 seasons of football at this level.
In the last two seasons we’ve seen Bristol Rovers and Cheltenham Town double that.
Throw in the brief two-year stay of 2014/15 champions Barnet and we have strong evidence that the league is not as strong as it once was.
Gary Johnson’s Cheltenham took last season’s title with relative ease. They recorded a +57 goal difference, collected over 100 points and built a gap of 12 back to second placed Forest Green Rovers.
Very few clubs were involved in the title race, and the play-off final was contested by two sides with the worst end-of-season form ever among the four teams competing for a final place in League Two.
Hopefully this season will produce something far more exciting, but losing that final means that Forest Green have a huge statistical hurdle to overcome.
The losing finalist has never gone on to win the title in the following season.
The average position of each the sides that lost in the play-offs in the following season is ninth. So are they worthy favourites?
This is my predicted final table from 1 to 24…
1st – Tranmere Rovers
Just three wins at home to teams in the top half of the table put paid to last season’s promotion challenge for Gary Brabin’s team.
Their final set of results over the 46 games make very little sense, especially home defeats to Boreham Wood and relegated Welling United when they were odds-on to win.
Ninety points should be enough to win the league this season, and they were just 12 points away from that total last year. Now, with a more balanced squad, they surely won’t make the same mistakes again.
After a relatively short stay of two seasons in the division, Brabin’s side have the quality to lift the trophy, particularly if new signings Andy Cook and Connor Jennings fit in with James Norwood.
2nd – Dagenham & Redbridge
Having taken Luton back to the Football League, John Still is chasing his fourth Conference title.
The manager is now back at Victoria Road where he won the title ten seasons ago, and he appears to have built a side capable of making a promotion challenge.
The Daggers were certainly poor last year and deservedly went down, but 21 of their eventual total of 34 points were achieved with Still back at the helm.
The new parachute payment system favours clubs coming down from League Two, even though a couple haven’t needed much help in recent seasons.
A fifth title might be out of reach, but his side will be up there.
3rd – Lincoln City
Have the Imps finally got their act together in the Conference? On the evidence of some great bits of business since May, the answer could well be a resounding ‘yes’.
The first shrewd signing was manager Dan Cowley, who was only minutes from taking Braintree Town to the play-off final.
He had the Iron punching above their weight and is now in charge of a club that should be one of the division’s best.
They’ve massively underachieved in recent seasons, failing to record a top-half finish in five since relegation.
But they look strong in all areas, and the recent signings of Nathan Arnold and Sean Raggett at opposite ends of the pitch will bolster an already sturdy squad.
4th – Wrexham
This time last year I said that the Racecourse Ground faithful might have to be patient with Gary Mills and his team.
They had an odd season, with patches of excellent form cancelled out by three streaks of bad results.
Eradicating just one of those blips would have set them up for a play-off push, something they can definitely achieve now that Mills knows more about his side.
Recruiting fan-favourite Mark Creighton to come in and work on the defence should eliminate errors that saw them concede three goals in nearly 20 per cent of their matches last season, including five home games.
5th – Forest Green Rovers
Before he took over formally at the Nailsworth club, new boss Mark Cooper was in place on the bench at Wembley to advise caretaker manager Scott Bartlett.
He made a sharp exit once the game went out of their reach.
Maybe he was off to make immediate plans for this season, considering the losing play-off finalist often has a tricky time the following year.
Only two teams have managed to bounce back with promotion, and they both had to go through the play-offs.
Punters think Cooper’s team will be the first to go straight back up automatically, though, backing them from early quotes of around 6/1 in to nearly half that price.
That’s bad value, even though big signings have been made again.
That’s never been the problem at the New Lawn, it’s fusing them together and not ending up with players just there for the cash.
Cooper could take a while to get to grips with the pressure of managing the title favourites.
They should make the play-offs again though.
6th – Eastleigh
Going eight games without a win after Christmas really hit Eastleigh hard in the league at a time when they were also on a headline-grabbing FA Cup run.
It would be easy to say that distracted Chris Todd’s team, but even when they had a second chance in the spring they still blew relatively easy chances to get back on track.
I think they will just be short of a points total to extend their season, once again.
7th – Woking
The Cards were hit with some nasty injuries at the start of last season and failed to recover any kind of momentum from their seventh-place finish in 2014/15.
Finishing in the top-half was actually a very good season, with all things considered.
Garry Hill spends his budget wisely, but it will be interesting to see how the new loan rules will impact if Woking – or indeed any other team – are unlucky with early season injuries again.
If Hill keeps the majority of his key players fit, they should get back to the heights they achieved two seasons ago.
8th – York City
York managed to get the majority of their transfer business done early and, at the time, it looked like Jackie McNamara had the basis of a plan to build a squad capable of immediate promotion.
They still might, but better signings have been made elsewhere and the Minstermen might be set for another extended stay in the division, until they find the right balance.
9th – Gateshead
Having a good manager is so important at this level, regardless of budgets thrown at playing staff.
Malcolm Crosby looked the wrong appointment to me last season and the Heed board did well to realise as a bottom-half finish beckoned.
Neil Aspin is an improvement – he had Halifax Town punching above their weight.
A full season of consolidation, replicating their ninth-place finish, might be followed up with a promotion push in 2017/18.
10th – Dover Athletic
They improved on a surprise eighth-place finish in 2014/15 to hit the play-off places in fifth last season.
A great effort from Chris Kinnear and his men.
They can record another top-half finish, but surely last season was the peak of what can be achieved at Crabble?
11th – Macclesfield Town
With the problems they’ve had off the pitch in the last few years, many Macc fans will no doubt be extremely happy with the mid-table side that John Askey has delivered at Moss Rose.
They achieved just five wins in the second half of last season, something that will be of concern going in to this coming campaign.
12th – Barrow
There’s a school of thought that Paul Cox, as a winner of this title with Mansfield in 2012/13, is the right man to lead Barrow to promotion.
But Holker Street and Field Mill are very different places, and although the North West side have a good budget, it’s unlikely to be the kind of funding that helped him finish top with the Stags.
For that reason Barrow, could limp into an underwhelming mid-table finish.
13th – Torquay United
Those fixated on the wrong end of the table last season might have missed the incredible job Kevin Nicholson pulled off at Plainmoor.
The table from February onwards had the Gulls in fifth place, averaging 1.82 points per game – the kind of form that pushes sides towards promotion.
That expectation might be a bit far-fetched, but I’d expect them to achieve mid-table with the minimum of fuss.
14th – Sutton United
Sutton are another side playing their home games on an artificial surface, and they also have the longest-serving manager from the 24 clubs in the division – Paul Doswell.
They’ve recruited well enough to follow previous promotion winners from the South section, who have had no trouble in landing around the middle reaches of the ‘premier’ division.
15th – Aldershot Town
Gary Waddock is back at the club where he won the title at a canter in 2007/08.
It doesn’t look like he has the same level of player at his disposal though, and a struggle in the bottom half of the division could ensue.
16th – Maidstone United
Home advantage on their artificial surface could count for plenty and their sizeable crowds could help sustain a good enough budget to avoid an immediate return to the South division.
It’s very rare for the South play-off winner to go down the very next season. It’s usually the next year that’s far tougher.
They need to enjoy it while they can.
17th – Braintree Town
Iron fans won’t care about this prediction as they’ve often seen their team make a mockery of my pre-season rundown, especially last year as they achieved a fantastic third place.
Jamie Day is a good manager, but I’d expect him to do the kind of job he did with Welling: safety first, rather than achieving the same success Cressing Road witnessed under Dan Cowley last season.
18th – Boreham Wood
One of the smallest clubs in the section and with one of the youngest managers.
It won’t be easy for Luke Garrard and his squad, but they will be buoyed by the way in which they dodged the drop last season.
They know they will be in for a battle at the wrong end of the table, but could make it safe a few weeks earlier this time.
19th – Southport
Swapped managers almost on a monthly basis last season, but eventually Andy Bishop did a good job of steadying the ship.
They look set to do just enough to avoid a return to the North division, but that might be virtue of far worse clubs being involved in the drop zone.
20th – Bromley
The Kent side must cope with that second-season syndrome that often hits clubs coming up from the South division.
They will have to do it without Mark Goldberg, who left the club for the umpteenth time towards the end of last season.
Neil Smith is now in place at Hayes Lane, but might not be able to recruit the kind of player needed to avoid a relegation fight.
A long season beckons.
21st – Chester
Jon McCarthy might find his first full season in a managerial role a tough one at the Deva Stadium.
A hat-trick of wins in easy games to end of the season made their final points tally look more respectable than looked likely.
Long winless stretches across the campaign meant they were always fighting not to get dragged into a scrap at the bottom.
Their home record had them 12th in the table based on just those matches, something they will need to rely on again if they are to beat this prediction of relegation.
22nd – Guiseley
Dodged the drop by just one point last season, although that could, and should, have been even narrower.
Goal difference looked like coming to the rescue after their controversial 1-1 draw at home to Braintree, in which they scored with a ball that should have been played back to the Iron keeper.
They only won three times on the road last season, and look set to end their stay in the top-flight.
23rd – Solihull Moors
Marcus Bignot did a fantastic job in taking the North title with Moors last season, despite some big names and huge budgets around the top of the division.
This looks a bridge too far for their limited resources, though, and they could experience an immediate return.
24th – North Ferriby United
Promotion-winning boss Billy Heath took the decision to stay in the North with relegated Halifax and that speaks volumes about North Ferriby’s chances of survival this season.
Steve Housham comes in as manager, but had just a 40% win rate with Gainsborough Trinity in the North section, with far better budgets on offer to him than here.
A long difficult season ahead at Grange Lane.
