Former Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith dives deep into the 2026 NFL Draft, discussing his favourite prospects, the top quarterbacks and which direction his former team should take.
Former Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith says Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey is the best overall player in the 2026 NFL Draft class, regardless of position.
Bailey is widely projected to be a top-five pick in this year’s draft, and according to the NFL odds he’s the joint-favourite to be selected at No. 2 overall by the New York Jets, along with Arvell Reese.
In our exclusive interview, Smith explains why Bailey is such a good prospect, and also discusses the top quarterbacks in the draft, why Carnell Tate stands out among the wide receivers, and which direction he expects the Atlanta Falcons to go in.
The Quarterbacks
Fernando Mendoza is going to be the first-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. What do you make of his game?
Fernando Mendoza’s story has been amazing. Like a lot of guys in the college game right now, he’s moved around. That’s the world of NIL. But what a season he had to win the national championship with the Indiana Hoosiers and win the Heisman Trophy.
There will be no surprises on draft night. He’ll be the number one pick in the draft by the Las Vegas Raiders.
At 6′ 5″, 236 pounds, he has the stature that you want for a starting NFL quarterback. He has elite accuracy, and he’s very, very smart. His mental preparation is outstanding.
His stats last season were off the charts for college football. He threw for over 3,500 yards and had 41 passing touchdowns to just six interceptions. His quarterback rating of 90.3 was the highest in college football. So, it was an amazing season, and it was fun to watch.
I’m really high on Fernando. He just does some things extremely well. He gets an A+ for his decision-making. He doesn’t have elite arm strength, but he has great pocket presence. He’s calm and composed in the pocket.
He’s not a traditional playmaker, but he is still functional when the play breaks down. He’s really good when he plays in the structure. He’s not going to make that many plays with his feet in the NFL.
He’s more of a system-based quarterback, and I like that about him. His accuracy is outstanding, and that was reflected in his 72% completion rate last season. He’s a high-level processor. He plays the game pre- and post-snap. Before the snap, he understands where the ball needs to go.
He’s got great anticipation. He’s a strong leader, too. He can come in and command a locker room. He’s a proven winner, and I really think he is the real deal.
There are a lot of comparables out there. I compare him to someone who was an outstanding quarterback in Matt Ryan. I think that’s the comparable you have to go with. I also see elements of Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff too.
People are talking because Mendoza has informed the NFL that he won’t attend the draft. That’s not a big deal at all. It’s great for Fernando that he wants to spend that moment with his family and friends.
What are Mendoza’s potential weaknesses as a starting quarterback in the NFL?
He’s got very few weaknesses.
If you had to mention them, you could say he doesn’t necessarily have the arm talent that some of the top NFL quarterbacks have. But guys without elite arm talent like Matt Ryan and Drew Brees have still had extremely successful careers and will end up in the Hall of Fame.
He’s a little limited when the play breaks down too. But overall, I think his ceiling is really high, and the Kubiak system is perfect for him.
Why do you think the fit is perfect between Mendoza and new Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak?
In my opinion, Klint Kubiak has a great offensive approach. It’s heavy on the play-action, and he likes to set everything up with the run. When you do that, you define the reads for the quarterback, which makes it a lot easier.
Everybody agrees that Mendoza’s skill set is perfect for Kubiak’s system and the Las Vegas Raiders.
Kubiak has a great offensive mind. He’s known for developing quarterbacks like the reigning Super Bowl champion Sam Darnold. He’s also worked with Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and Brock Purdy. All these guys have been under his tutelage.
The Raiders signed Cousins, but I don’t think that changes a lot. It’s more for insurance, and it was a move they had to make because they got such a good, discounted deal.
That signing creates conversations about Fernando and his path to playing. But I’m a firm believer that if you draft a guy at number one or in the top five, he should be the starter on day one. That’s why I think the Cousins signing was more just for insurance, and he’ll be the backup ready to step in if need be.
You mentioned how Kubiak likes to set up everything with the run, and we saw the success Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III had last season. Could this be promising for Ashton Jeanty, who didn’t have the rookie year many expected?
It is absolutely promising for Jeanty. He did not have that banner year in his rookie season, but I think he will adjust in year two.
He is a very talented guy. Some people knock his size, but I think he will be a great match with Coach Kubiak.
Kubiak comes from way back, and he wants to run the ball first to set up the pass. He wants opposing defenses to load the box to free things up on the edge.
So, Jeanty will have a chance to show improvement this year, and it will be a much better year two, simply because of the system he will be playing in.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson’s stock has been rising in recent weeks. What do you make of his game? How high do you think he should go?
Ty Simpson is a one-year starter, and I think that’s going to be the biggest knock on him. He doesn’t have a deep resume.
He is very highly skilled, though. He does a great job mentally of processing information, and he’s got a good arm.
At 6’ 1″, 211 pounds, he’s not necessarily physically overwhelming. But he has this uncanny ability to read the pressure and to make accurate throws on the run. He does an outstanding job.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a pure scrambler who is going to take off and scramble for 20 yards multiple times. But he has the ability to evade the pressure while keeping his eyes downfield.
He avoids the pressure and slides in the pocket to allow routes to develop, which can lead to chunk plays. That’s what stands out to me.
I think he’s probably going to go late in the first round.
While Mendoza and Simpson seem to be the consensus top two quarterbacks, what are your thoughts on the rest of the quarterback class?
This is not a deep class. It’s probably on the lower end of quarterback drafts. A lot of the talk will be about Mendoza and Simpson, but as you go beyond those two, it’s not as good.
That doesn’t mean the rest don’t have a chance of being successful in the NFL, but they will not go in the first round, and they potentially won’t even go in the second round. There are some interesting prospects, though.
The first one is LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
He’s a second-generation quarterback, and his dad, Doug Nussmeier, is the current offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints.
He really had an interesting season. He had a problem with his abdomen and probably shouldn’t have been playing. He should’ve been on the sidelines, but he battled as much as he could until they made the change.
He was 5-4 as a starter and didn’t look his best, but a lot of that was because of his injury. That does complicate his evaluation.
He did play in the Senior Bowl, and he had a very good Senior Bowl week. That reaffirmed that he has the arm talent to play in the NFL. There was a lot of buzz about his Senior Bowl performance, and that was because he had gotten some rest. He wasn’t trying to play through an injury.
He had a great career at LSU. He’s in the top five in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and completions.
Quarterbacks get over-drafted sometimes, but I don’t think he’s going to be a day-one pick. He’s going to be a day two or three pick, but there’s no doubt in my mind that he has talent and he is better than what he showed last season.
The other guy that’s very interesting, especially when you talk about resumes, is Carson Beck. He’s always been on winning teams, and he might be the most accomplished quarterback in this draft.
Even though he wasn’t the starter, he’s got two national championship wins. At Georgia, he started 27 games and only lost three of them. He threw for almost 8,000 yards and had 58 passing touchdowns to 20 interceptions.
After transferring to Miami in 2025, he led them to the national championship game. So, his numbers are fantastic, and he has big-game experience. He knows what it takes.
He’s got the size you want in a quarterback at 6’5″. Some people are knocking him by saying he’s just a game manager. But even if that’s the case, he’s a game manager with tons of high-level experience.
He may be more talented than what a lot of people give him credit for. When you’re at the University of Georgia with the roster they had, it’s easy to get overshadowed because they were stacked.
Beck has done a great job everywhere he has been. Usually, if you win in college, then get to go to a good organization with a good structure, you have a good chance to be successful.
I’m a little miffed that he’s not being touted as a first-round pick. People are saying he will be a high-end backup or a low-end starter, but I think they might be missing the boat on this. With his size and what he’s done in college, I think he’s a guy who could have a great NFL career.
People are writing off another prospect in Drew Allar because he didn’t have the type of season he needed prior to entering the draft. Before the season, a lot of scouts would’ve said he was a lock to be a first-round pick.
He’s got the size. He’s 6’5″ and 228 pounds. His stock fell because he broke his ankle around mid-season.
The draft is probably the most secretive thing in the NFL, but there’s some people in the league who think he’s the number-two-rated quarterback in this class. And he very well could be. It’s just unfortunate that he got the injury.
Even though he’s highly rated by some people in the league, he still has some real issues with some of the core skills of being a starting NFL quarterback. His footwork is one of them. Footwork is important, but as long as he can spin the ball, I’m not too worried about the footwork. It’s definitely something he can improve on, though.
If he’s drafted by the right organization and coach, he could be a really good player.
One thing that has really surprised me is how Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has fallen off the face of the earth, so to speak.
Two years ago, he was touted as a potential first-overall draft pick. But he has been very inconsistent in the last couple of seasons, and Clemson has fallen down quite a bit as a team. That led to Klubnik falling down the board quite a lot.
The quarterback prospect that interests me the most is Taylen Green from Arkansas. He spent time under Bobby Petrino, who is a great coach for quarterbacks and has a great reputation.
Green is a freak athlete. He ran a 4.36 and set records with his speed and jumps. He is very, very raw, but he’s the true meaning of a dual-threat quarterback.
He’s not a drop-back guy like Mendoza. He’s like the new wave of modern NFL quarterbacks, so there’s going to be a place for a guy like him in the league next year. So, remember the name Taylen Green from Arkansas.
People talk about Michael Vick and all the things he could do. Green has even better numbers than Vick in terms of the measurables. He needs to develop a little bit, but he has the potential to be a very explosive dual-threat NFL quarterback.
The Top Prospects
Arvell Reese is currently tipped to be the first player taken after Mendoza. What do you make of his game? How good can he be in the NFL?
Well, Ohio State has just been loaded from top to bottom in recent years.
Arvell Reese is versatile. There’s a reason he’s a consensus top five pick. He’s one of those hybrid defenders where you can’t really pigeonhole them and say what position they are. He can play outside linebacker, and he can line up and be a true edge rusher as well. He can do all kinds of things. He’s like the queen on the chessboard because he can move anywhere.
He is a Micah Parsons-type of defender. He’s going to rush the quarterback. He is a freak athlete at 6’4″ and 241 pounds. He could excel playing either outside linebacker or edge rusher, but elite pass rushers are hard to find. There’s much more upside in playing him as a rusher rather than having him drop into coverage.
He might rarely drop back into coverage just to give offensive coordinators something to think about, and he probably could do this quite well. He might line up everywhere, but this guy is going to be a pass rusher in the NFL. If he faces 1,000 pass plays in the NFL, he’s going to be rushing on about 975 of them.
When you watch the tape, he’s the most violent prospect in the draft. When I say violent, I mean he’s got great explosion. He can explode in short areas. He’s got a fast playstyle. He’s got great range and length. His measurables are just unbelievable.
He was the centerpiece of that Buckeyes defense. And, in the NFL, he will walk in and be the centerpiece of whichever team picks him, similar to how Parsons was when he was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys.
He’s not going to be on the board very long because he is a stud. He’s a ‘sure-enough’ type of prospect, so bank on him. He’s a tremendous football player.
Reese’s teammate at Ohio State, Caleb Downs, is also a highly touted prospect. What do you make of his playstyle, and what do you think of him as a prospect?
He’s fun to watch, and I love his game.
We talked about Arvell Reese and how he is one of those hybrid outside linebackers/edge rushers. Well, this is the other trend happening right now. In the NFL, you have these multi-purpose safeties who can rotate, disguise, and play downhill.
Coaches like Vic Fangio and Bill Belichick started doing this with their safeties and revolutionized the position. Now, you see it happening quite a bit.
In recent years, Budda Baker, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Derwin James are good examples of this. The game is so spread out. We don’t line up and play base defense anymore. We’re playing in dime and quarter situations. So, teams are making adjustments where they play a safety in sub-packages.
The Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, and Green Bay Packers have used their safeties like this a lot in the last few years.
Belichick and Nick Saban were doing this sort of thing 15 years ago too. Maybe not to the extent it’s done now, but they were the first ones to play these hybrid safeties.
It gives you so much flexibility as a playcaller. That’s why the guys I mentioned have had great success.
Having a safety who can do it all and line up everywhere allows you to have heavy disguises, which makes it very tough for the quarterback. The quarterback has to react post-snap as he doesn’t get an e-mail or text message pre-snap. Downs is elite at being this kind of player. He’s the perfect guy to come in and do it like Baker, Fitzpatrick, and James did.
It’s not an easy thing to do either. You have to be a good tackler, and a lot of defensive backs are not good tacklers. They think tackling is optional, but it is not. Downs loves to tackle. I love that he is an elite tackler.
If you go through the tape, you can see that he hardly misses. When he commits to making a tackle, he makes it. That usually means he’s taking perfect angles, and he’s finishing through the contact. When you can take those perfect angles in pursuit of the football and you can finish through contact, you’re going to be an elite defensive player.
Teams that value the position will want him to be part of their defense. They’re going to make Downs the star defender who can play close to the box if needed.
He’s going to play that second-level, traditional linebacker role based on down, distance, tendencies, and score of the game. Can he do it for a full game? Probably not. If they’re lining up in 21 personnel, you don’t want him that close to the line of scrimmage. If they’re lining up in 11 personnel, you want him there.
Some people question whether he has the strength to survive in the box, as he’s not a 230-pound linebacker. But he plays with leverage, balance, low pad level, and violent hands. You can see it on the tape.
He diagnoses close to the line of scrimmage as well as anybody, and he’s shown he’s able to do it consistently at Ohio State. You need that in today’s NFL when offenses are running these screen passes, RPOs, and mesh concepts. You have to be able to read and play in space, and he can absolutely do that.
He’s a perfect fit for modern NFL defenses. Whichever team drafts him will have a very happy defensive coordinator.
He doesn’t necessarily have the long speed, but he has great instincts, a nose for the football, and a short-area burst. I think he’s going to be a great player who will thrive in today’s NFL.
Rueben Bain Jr. had an impressive season with the Miami Hurricanes. Can he dominate in the NFL the same way he did in college? What do you think about the concerns over his arm length?
I’ve had the opportunity to see him play a couple of times, and I’m really impressed.
He reminds me a little bit of former Indianapolis Colts pass rusher Dwight Freeney, who was a great player. I say that because Bain Jr. has a very good first step and can quickly beat you off the line of scrimmage. He also plays all the time on all three downs. He plays with toughness and power off the edge. He was a game-wrecker this past season in Miami.
This is the time of year that there are always rumors about strength, speed, and in this case, arm length. This kind of talk is always popular at draft time. At the end of the day, I think he’s an outstanding player who will dominate.
I think the arm-length issue is overplayed. Tape does not lie, and his tape is very good. I think he has to be a top 10 pick. Some even say he’s the best pass rusher in this draft.
The arm-length talk is mind-boggling to me because people can take one thing and say this guy can’t succeed, but ignore all the other things that suggest he will succeed. This talk is a bit of a red flag to me because I suspect some people are trying to get Bain Jr. to fall so that they can pick him.
In your opinion, which prospect in this year’s draft is the best overall player, regardless of position?
This might be a biased answer because I’m a defensive-minded coach. I like guys with high motors who can change the complexion of the game with one play. Edge rusher David Bailey from Texas Tech has a great shot at being an outstanding NFL player.
What’s not to like about David Bailey?
He’s 6′ 4″ and 251 pounds. He has elite speed, and he was a unanimous All-American for Texas Tech. He had 14.5 sacks this year, which was tied first alongside Western Michigan’s Nadame Tucker, who is also a good rusher but not to the level of Bailey.
There’s a lot of speculation that this guy is not going to be on the board very long, and I can see why. He might go to the Jets second overall as it will probably come down to him or Arvell Reese.
The Jets have to go for one of those two guys. They have to go pass rush. They had 26 sacks in 2025, which was 31st overall. They have to get some pressure on quarterbacks, so the defensive backs don’t have to cover for long periods of time every single play.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is the number one running back on most boards. How good can he be in the NFL?
Love has had a great career at Notre Dame.
The running back position has been devalued a little. Since 2018, the only running backs taken in the top 10 are Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson and Ashton Jeanty. Barkley was the last one taken top five when he was selected second overall in 2018.
So, for Love to be talked about like a top five pick, it speaks volumes about his upside.
Last year’s top running back in Jeanty is a true running back. He’s not a guy who will move around much and catch passes out of the backfield. Whereas Bijan is like a queen on the chessboard, who can move anywhere. He can line up in the slot and at wide receiver too.
Love is in the mold of a Bijan. He is a walking chunk play with his 4.36 speed. He will get you chunks of yards. In his career at Notre Dame, he had 433 rushing attempts, and 43 went for 15+ yards. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry in his two seasons as a starter. That is extremely impressive.
He is a stud. He has good size to him, and he can catch the ball out of the backfield, too. He’s not a Michael Turner, who I coached in Atlanta, who we would just run 300+ times a season. And that’s no disrespect to Michael. He was a very good player, but we weren’t throwing him the ball. But Love has good hands and can run routes well. He’s special.
He’s going to get a lot of touches in his rookie season. I guarantee that the first thing opposing teams will think about as they prepare for the game during the week is how they can stop Love, because they cannot let him get going.
In terms of a pro comparison for him, I don’t have one. Which is a compliment in itself. There haven’t been too many guys that have his skill set and measurables.
Are there any wide receivers in this year’s draft who could be game-changers at the next level?
Yes, there is one, and he’s another prospect from that stacked Ohio State team. At the top of this year’s draft, they have three ‘sure-enough’ players (Reese, Downs, Tate).
They’ve done a great job of recruiting and developing talent there, and the wide receiver I’m talking about is Carnell Tate. He is by far the best wide receiver prospect in this draft.
Tate has a stat which really stands out to me, and it’s an important stat. He had zero drops on 66 targets in 2025. That’s incredible. He’s also one of the most polished route runners I’ve seen coming out of college. He is for real.
I know a team like the New Orleans Saints will be all over him, but there are a lot of other teams that will want to pick him as well. I’m not sure he makes it to number 8. He dominated his pro day, and this is not a deep draft for wide receivers, which makes him even more valuable to those teams at the top who need a receiver.
It’s a bit of a down year for receivers, which is why everyone is talking about Tate. In previous years, there’s been a debate about two or three different receivers, but this year, it’s all about Tate. It’s a thin receiver class, and I think that’s why we’ve seen so many receivers move and get paid in free agency.
The Atlanta Falcons
How do you expect new general manager Ian Cunningham and the Atlanta Falcons to attack this draft?
Things can change, but right now, the Atlanta Falcons only have five picks, and they don’t have a first-rounder. They don’t have a lot of capital. That’s an issue. It’s not down to them, as it was the previous administration that put them in this situation. And it’s a tough situation.
Despite the tough situation, I’m fired up about the new administration led by Matt Ryan. I’m excited to see how new general manager Ian Cunningham will play this draft. Word around the league is that he’s one of the most data-driven personnel men in all of football. So, he’ll use the data to make decisions, and he won’t go off gut feelings.
There’s so much data out there that if you use it correctly, then you’re probably going to get it right more often than not. They need to be spot on this year because of their situation. They are going to need to hit on all of their picks. They can’t miss. If they miss on one pick, that’s 20% of their total picks.
Because Ian is so data-driven and value-oriented in his approach, he might prioritize accumulating more draft picks in the future. There could be some trades and surprises. Even with the limitations they’re working with, they’re going to do everything in their power to solidify Atlanta’s foundation moving forward.
Cunningham knows how to do it as well. He has worked with some great people. He worked with Ozzie Newsome at the Baltimore Ravens, who I think is one of the best general managers the NFL has ever seen. I will put Ozzie’s track record up against anybody.
When I worked with Ozzie, we were never just focused on positions when we were looking at the draft. We were taking the best player available approach. I’m sure that’s something Ian has taken from Ozzie and his time in Baltimore. So, expect the Falcons to implement that strategy going forward.
I’m excited to see where Ryan, Cunningham, and new head coach Kevin Stefanski can lead this team.
There are some areas of the team that definitely need looking at, and they’ve already done a good job so far in retooling the roster a little. But let’s not forget the Falcons already have a lot of really good pieces in place, at a lot of positions.
