Blue Jays' pitcher Kevin Gausman starts today against the Twins in Minnesota as he looks to build on a solid start to the season.
The over-arching storylines that explain three series wins in a row for the Toronto Blue Jays has been starting pitching, the hitting prowess of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the slow, gradual emergence of Kazuma Okamoto.
Those and the steady return of injured players, led this past week by Trey Yesavage and George Springer.
For bettors, looking at futures, does all that mean it’s time to take a flyer on a World Series Jays’ bet, or an American League Winner bet?
The Blue Jays are +800 this morning on Betway to win the American League championship, after the New York Yankees (+275), Seattle Mariners (+500), and Detroit Tigers (+700).
The Jays are tied with the Chicago Cubs and Tigers at +1800 in World Series futures (L.A. Dodgers at +185, Yankees at +700, Atlanta Braves at +1200, Mariners at +1200, then the Cubs, Tigers and Jays).
Yesavage came back and was brilliant against the Red Sox earlier this week. A big what-if is the health of Jose Berrios, rehabbing a stress fracture in his elbow in Triple A Buffalo. Berrios had a rough start earlier this week, giving up five runs in four innings.
He’s pain free, though, which is why it’s a possibility he returns to the Blue Jays rotation early next week. Still, his fastball velocity is down, and the elbow injury gives everyone reasonable concern over what the Blue Jays are getting.
For bettors, assuming Berrios is effective, that pushes with Eric Lauer or Patrick Corbin back to long relief, bolstering the bullpen.
You also have Shane Bieber on the 60-day injured list, out until at least through late May. He’s throwing bullpen sessions now, progressing positively, no setbacks. Next up is facing hitters, then minor league rehab assignments. So, by mid-summer, assuming there are no setbacks, the Jays will have a former Cy Young winner back.
On the hitting and defense side, Alejandro Kirk (broken thumb, out six week as of April 7), Addison Barger (ankle) and Nathan Lukes (hamstring) are on their way back, with Barger (now running the bases and hitting live pitching) and Lukes (10-day IL, MRI being done on his left hamstring) being the closest.
And don’t sleep on a return this summer of relief pitcher Yimi Garcia (elbow), throwing live batting sessions now, and starter Max Scherzer (15-day DL with tendonitis), who won’t be out long.
In yesterday’s 8-1 beatdown over the Boston Red Sox, Guerrero went 2-for-3, taking his batting average to .358, second in MLB.
That’s why the Blue Jays are up there in futures betting, despite a 14-16 record, fourth in the American League East this morning.
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MLB
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, today, 7:40 p.m. EST, Target Field, Minnesota, MN
Blue Jays Moneyline
At Betway this morning, the Blue Jays are the betting favorites, at -135, with the Twins at +115. Toronto is -1.5, +115, on the Runline, Minnesota +1.5, -150. The Over/Under is 7.5. Over is -120, Under +100.
The Blue Jays roll out Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.57 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 38 strikeouts), against Bailey Ober (2-1, 3.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 27 strikeouts) for the Twins.
Twins are 13-18 overall, 8-8 at home, but they’ve struggled lately – 2-8 in their last ten games, a .239 batting average, 5.02 ERA, outscored by 16 runs.
I look for the Jays, 7-3 in their last ten, to keep building their record on the back of one of the American League’s elite starters.
Under +100
This is good value, with two solid right handers on the mound, and colder temps – high of 52 degrees F, and cloudy, is the forecast – keeping the score in check. That pitching matchup supports the Under.
Player to Get 2+ Hits Kazuma Okamoto +375
Okamoto has been steadily creeping back into the conversation after a slow start to the season, understandable as he acclimatized himself to MLB after spending his career in the Japanese pro league.
Blue Jays commentators have been talking about tweaks to his swing that have had positive results as late. Yesterday against he was 1-for-4 against the Red Sox and has that average up to .224 now. He leads the team with 5 homeruns and is second to Andres Gimenez with 15 RBIs. Those strikeouts are high, though – 38 in 107 ABs.
