The Thunder are heavy betting favourites at home against the Lakers, while the Pistons look to build on their defensive dominance
One thing that’s stood out, when talking NBA betting so far this spring: Adjusting your wagering to the slower pace, physical defence and lower scoring of the playoffs will benefit you more times than not.
Marc Stein detailed it – scoring in the NBA playoffs has seen a huge drop off, the most dramatic ever. Bettors backing star-laden teams like the L.A. Lakers or Cleveland Cavaliers have been getting burned.
Defensive-minded, younger teams with depth, like the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder, have rewarded sharp bettors, more times than not.
That brings us to tonight.
BEST BETS
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. EST, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Detroit leads series 1-0
Pistons ATS -3.5 (-110)
On the NBA betting front, at Betway, Detroit is the favourite, at -160, with Cleveland Moneyline at +130. The Pistons are -3.5 (-110), the Cavaliers +3.5 (-110). Over/Under is 215.5 (Over is -115, Under is -105).
The Pistons are 7-3 in their 10 games, averaging 107.9 points, 47.1 rebounds, 23.6 assists, 9.0 steals, and 8.3 blocks per game, shooting 46% from the field. They’ve held their opponents to 100.6 PPG.
The Cavaliers are 5-5 in their past 10 games, while they’re 0-4 in playoff road games. Cleveland has averaged 111.6 points, 44.7 rebounds, 22.9 assists, 8.1 steals and 4.8 blocks per game, shooting 47.3% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 112.3 points.
No injuries to report for Cleveland, with Kevin Huerter (hip) listed as questionable for tonight for Detroit.
Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons averaging 27.1 points and 5.3 rebounds over the last 10 games. For the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell leads the way, averaging 27.9 points and 5.7 assists.
Detroit forced 19 turnovers in Game 1, and only committed 11, a big edge and something to focus on tonight.
Detroit’s momentum, building off those 19 TOs, outworking the Cavs, controlling the tempo, winning the rebounding battle (45-41), plus as a top-seeded team on home court, gives them a strong edge.
Prop: Cunningham 25+ Points at Betway (-180), and Mitchell 4+ Made Threes (+200).
NBA
L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma Thunder, 9:30 p.m. EST, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
OKC lead series 1-0
LeBron James 20+ Points -200
At Betway, OKC are huge betting favourites, at -800, with Lakers at +550. The Thunder are -15.5 (-105), the Lakers +15.5 (-115). Over/Under is 209.5 (Over is -110, Under is -110).
OKC absolutely dominated the Lakers in Game 1 – 108-90, led by 24 points, and 12 rebounds from Chet Holmgren.
The Thunder are now 5-0 against the Lakers this season and show no signs of slowing down. They’re huge favourites tonight.
Luka Doncic remains out for the Lakers, with a left hamstring injury. Luke Kennard is questionable with neck soreness, and Jarred Vanderbilt is doubtful with a right finger dislocation.
On the Thunder side, Thomas Sorber is out after knee surgery and Jalen Williams is out with a left hamstring strain.
That’s all courtesy of the official NBA injury report as of 7:45 a.m. EST this morning.
So, let’s look at a few props.
James has averaged 23.7 points over seven playoff games, and a 46.9 FG%, with the Lakers offence going through him. James finished Game 1 with 27 points, on 12-of-17 shooting, but Betway has 25+ Points tonight at +150. That’s a little dangerous in my view, the book pricing James’ star power first.
He’s 41 years old and getting a ton of minutes (36 minutes in Game 1). When factoring in OKC’s length and pace, it’s going to be challenging for James to top 25 points two games in a row. The Thunder defence held him to lower points all season – 22 points in their game Feb. 9, and 13 points in their game April 2.
Prop: Holmgren 8+ Rebounds (-260), after controlling the paint Game 1, with plenty of rebounds on the table tonight as the Lakers rely more heavily on jump shooting by James and Austin Reaves.
I thought about 12+ (+250), I really did, but my worry there is an OKC blowout, and they sit Holmgren later in the game.
