Our Patriots vs Bears betting picks for NFL Week 7 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same-game parlay
One of the more intriguing NFL matchups kicks off Week 7 tomorrow night: The New England Patriots visit Soldier Field to play the Chicago Bears.
Many in New England left the Patriots for dead after a 1-2 start, including a 35-6 blowout at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. New England has now won three straight and is nipping at the heels of the first-place Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.
Then there are the Bears, also 4-2, who got their starting quarterback, Caleb Williams, back from a hamstring injury last week in Atlanta, leading them to a huge 31-23 win, with Williams going 30 for 36, 305 yards passing and one touchdown.
Tomorrow night’s game is at 8:15 p.m. EST on Prime Video, with a sunny forecast and temperatures around 60 degrees F.
Key matchups start with Patriots’ quarterback Drake Maye against the Bears pass rush. Maye has thrown 10 touchdown passes during the Patriots’ three-game winning streak, with just one interception, and averages 292.7 yards per game.
He has returned to the MVP conversation, with NFL betting at Betway having Maye at +1400, behind Josh Allen (+175), Brock Purdy (+200), Patrick Mahomes (+800), Trevor Lawrence (+900), and Joe Burrow (+1200).
Chicago’s defence presents a major challenge for Maye, ranking fifth in the NFL with 17 sacks and second in third-down efficiency, allowing opponents to convert just 25.8% of their opportunities.
Williams versus the Patriots’ defence is another one. New England’s defence ranks among the NFL’s fifth-best in points allowed (18.8) and sixth in yards allowed (300.8). Williams can extend plays with his legs, though.
Keep an eye on Patriots wide receiver A.J. Brown versus cornerback Jaylon Johnson, especially with the Pats dealing with injuries at receiver.
Brown returned from an injury against the New York Jets last weekend but struggled, catching just three of ten targets. According to the Patriots’ official game preview, Johnson has allowed a 73.1% completion rate when targeted.
Speaking of injuries, for the Bears, S Anthony Johnson Jr. (undisclosed), DE Dayo Odeyingbo (quadriceps), and OT Braxton Jones (knee) are out, while LB Jack Sanborn (concussion), RB Kyle Monangai (thumb), G Jonah Jackson (hip flexor), and LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) are questionable.
On the Patriots’ side of the ball, OT Marcus Bryant (ankle), WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder), FB Reggie Gilliam (ankle), and WR Mack Hollins (calf) are all out, while OT Morgan Moses (ankle), G Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), C Ben Brown (knee), CB Carlton Davis III (neck), CB Karon Prunty (undisclosed), and CB Channing Canada (undisclosed) are questionable.
Here are my Patriots vs Bears picks.
Patriots vs Bears Betting Trends
Chicago is 4-2 against the spread this season, including 2-1 ATS at Soldier Field. New England is 3-2-1 ATS overall and 1-1-1 ATS on the road.
The Under has hit in all three Bears home games this season.
Patriots vs Bears Odds
In NFL picks at Betway, the Bears are -165 moneyline favourites, with the Patriots +135. Chicago is giving 3.5 points (+105), while New England is getting 3.5 points (-125). The total is set at 50.5, with the Over at -115, and Under at -105.
The most intriguing number for bettors is Chicago -3.5 at +105 – you’re getting plus money on the Bears at home, but they must win by at least four points. The 50.5 total suggests the market expects both Maye and Williams to move the football.
Patriots vs Bears Betting Picks
The weather looks good, so I’m taking the over 50.5 (-115). Both defences are legit. Last time these two teams met, it was a 19-7 snoozer.
But both offences have explosive potential, with the Patriots averaging 33.3 points over their three-game winning streak, while Chicago scored 31 points in Week 6
I’m also looking at Maye 2+ passing touchdowns (-120). Maye slumped at the start of the season, but he’s thrown at least three scores in each of his last three games. Chicago’s secondary has been shaky.
D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown, at -150, also has appeal, being the most likely scorer on the board. The Bears have the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack, 160.7 yards per game, and Swift had two touchdowns last week against Atlanta.
Patriots vs Bears Same Game Parlay
I like the Bears moneyline, plus Over 50.5 points, and Williams 2+ passing touchdowns (+275 total), since the Patriots are missing several cornerbacks, which opens up opportunities for Williams to attack the secondary.
