Our NFL Week 5 player prop picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate
Some big storylines heading into today’s 13-game slate in NFL Week 5, followed by tomorrow’s titanic Bills-Rams Monday night tilt.
The Seahawks (3-1) host the San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Lumen Field, at 4:25 p.m., an opportunity for Brock Purdy and the 49ers to avenge last season’s results against the Seahawks, who went on to win the Super Bowl. The 49ers were outscored 54-9 in both games, a Week 18 showdown and the divisional round of the playoffs.
Purdy is playing at an MVP clip, so that one is a must-watch today.
“They (Seahawks defence) fly around; their scheme is really good too,” he told reporters this week. “They are all really well coached, with their great defensive line, their secondary, everyone is tied in together. It feels like it’s a bend-but-not-break kind of defence, and you gotta earn every yard. They have played together for a good amount of time, so they understand what each guy does really well.”
Another must-watch is the Denver Broncos (2-2), at SoFi Stadium in California to play the Chargers (0-4), after Broncos’ head coach Sean Payton announced he was taking over offensive play-calling duties. That game is at 4:05 p.m. EST.
Same deal in Houston with the Texans: a shocking 0-4 on the road in Tennessee against the Titans. Head coach DeMeco Ryans took over defensive play-calling duties after a unit that ranked No. 1 last season in yards allowed (277.2) now sits at 343.7 yards allowed in 2026.
Player props are popular with bettors because it’s a fun way to go beyond simply picking a team to win. Markets like rushing totals, passing yards, receptions and touchdowns lets bettors engage more deeply in games, especially with storylines like I touched on, impacting players like Purdy, QB Bo Nix in Denver, QB CJ Stroud in Houston.
Here are my NFL Week 5 player prop picks.
NFL Week 5 Player Prop Trends
Injuries are a huge focus in Week 5. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Jets RB Breece Hall are out, while Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are questionable, which will affect your prop picks.
That makes it hard to weigh passing volume against rushing efficiency, since teams like the Ravens, for example, will look more to running back Derrick Henry with Jackson out, rather than relying on backup QB Tyler Huntley’s arm.
Speaking of injuries, here is where we are going into Sunday’s slate of games, according to NFL.com:
Falcons OT Jake Matthews (groin) expected to play; Ravens WR Zay Flowers (foot) questionable but expected to play; CB Marlon Humphrey (hamstring) expected to play. Colts WR Keenan Allen (groin) expected to play; Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (foot) questionable, not expected to play; Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (ankle) is going to play; Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) expected to play; Saints RB Alvin Kamara (back) expected to play; Steelers RB Rico Dowdle (toe) questionable, unlikely to play; Titans WR Carnell Tate (back) trending towards playing.
Snap counts, targets, and carries are becoming more meaningful indicators of prop value than a player’s biggest performance of the season. A receiver might have 120 yards and two TDs one week, but he may have only seen five targets – a performance difficult to repeat.
Best NFL Week 5 Running Back Props
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens, 80+ rushing yards (-120)
I like this market over 70+ (-180), given the extra work Henry will get with Jackson out and the Falcons’ strong run defence.
First touchdown for Henry (+400) is intriguing, given the fact that Henry has seven TD scores this season, and Baltimore will be relying more on him on the goal line.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills, anytime touchdown (-115)
Monday night’s game should be a shootout, and Cook has scored in three consecutive games, handling 57.1% of Buffalo’s red-zone carries, according to Fox Sports.
Best NFL Week 5 Wide Receiver Props
Nico Collins, Houston Texans, anytime touchdown (+140)
With their defensive struggles, Stroud will get the ball out a lot, and Collins is coming off a huge game: seven catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas. Collins accounts for 43% of Houston’s red-zone opportunities, according to Covers, with a favourable matchup against the Titans.
Bettors are increasingly targeting Collins when making NFL betting picks.
Davante Adams, L.A. Rams, 70+ receiving yards (+110)
Buffalo’s corners are banged up – Dee Alford (ankle) and Te’Cory Couch (hamstring) are questionable; Jordan Hancock (hamstring) is out.
The last time these two teams met at SoFi, the Rams won 44-42 in a shootout, so these are high-powered offences, perhaps a Super Bowl preview.
In NFL betting, Betway is offering 60+ yards at -135, but I like plus money for just ten additional yards, nice balance between risk and reward there.
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals, 7+ receptions (-120)
Thirty targets in two games, 17 in Week 3 against the Eagles and 13 last week against the Giants, put him among the NFL leaders. Betway also offers 6+ at -225 and 8+ at 150. Arizona will be without Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s about to be traded, which could open up more opportunities for Wilson.
Best NFL Week 5 Quarterback Props
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, anytime touchdown (-120)
Back to Allen, because he’s been money for me every week, rushing for seven TDs in Buffalo’s first four games. Monday night’s game carries a 54.5-point total – going to be a barnburner.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 3+ touchdown passes (+140)
Goff has tossed nine TDs through four games, and Arizona’s pass defence ranks 31st in defence-adjusted value over average, an advanced NFL stat, meaning Arizona has one of the NFL’s least efficient pass defences, accounting for opponent strength and game situations. That’s according to Pride of Detroit.
