Our NFL Week 1 TD scorer picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top prop bets across the slate.
Just two games into the NFL season, a few storylines are becoming clear, particularly from a betting perspective.
First, bettors are already taking a second look at the L.A. Rams, with the super-team narrative that dominated offseason discussion now on the shelf after the San Francisco 49ers dismantled the Rams in Australia Thursday night, Eastern Time, 27-7.
The Rams looked vulnerable (or was that sluggishness more about their dumb travel schedule, which got them into Melbourne just 28 hours before kickoff); Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offence looked shockingly quiet; and the 49ers looked more dangerous than advertised. It also became clear that Seattle’s championship defence starts with its defence.
The schedule gets going again tomorrow, with 13 games, followed up by the Monday night matchup between the Denver Broncos and Chiefs in Kansas City.
Here are my NFL Week 1 TD scorer picks.
NFL Week 1 TD Scorer Trends
Player props in Week 1 are unusually sensitive to uncertainty, including workloads, new personnel, and new coaches and coordinators.
Workloads have yet to be established.
One reason to be cautious in Week 1 is quarterbacks, particularly around passing overs. In 2024, passing production plunged during opening weekend. NFL teams averaged just 376.6 combined passing yards per game. The league produced just 35 passing touchdowns, the fewest in Week 1 since 2006. Rushing touchdowns outnumbered passing touchdowns in Week 1 that year.
Brock Purdy threw for 205 yards Thursday night. Stafford threw for 155. Drew Lock threw for 187 yards for the Seahawks in their Wednesday game against Seattle. Drake Maye threw for 178 yards for New England.
That doesn’t mean you run towards running backs on the TD scorer side either. Just be cautious, since rosters haven’t been set yet.
Injuries are another factor. Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out by Atlanta for their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With Michael Penix Jr. unavailable following knee surgery, that means Cooper Rush will start. That could mean implications for Atlanta’s rushing volume if the Falcons take a more conservative approach.
Rookie Jeremiyah Love, the Arizona Cardinals’ No. 3 overall pick, has been dealing with a high ankle sprain for three weeks and is questionable against the Chargers. Even if he plays, his workload is difficult to project.
Best NFL Week 1 Running Back TD Props
David Montgomery, Texans, anytime touchdown, -110
Against Buffalo, Houston could also lean on checkdowns and short passes to counter pressure, keeping Montgomery involved in the passing game despite competition for touches from Woody Marks.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, 2+ touchdowns, +200
In NFL betting at Betway, rather than laying -260 on the anytime touchdown market for Gibbs, I’d take the longer price for two scores against New Orleans. Gibbs scored multiple touchdowns in five games last season. The matchup with the Saints and his rushing/receiving versatility make him a good pick on Sunday’s board for a multi-TD wager, on top of your game picks.
Derrick Henry, Ravens, first touchdown scorer, +350
In terms of my NFL betting picks, this is my favourite first TD scorer play, against the Colts, at a very attractive price. Henry is the Ravens’ goal-line back, scoring 16 rushing touchdowns in 2025, second-most in the NFL. As the Ravens get closer to the end zone, Henry gets fed the ball more. According to ESPN, Henry accounted for 85.7% of Baltimore’s rushing attempts inside the five.
Best NFL Week 1 Wide Receiver TD Props
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals, anytime touchdown, -120
Chase had 17 receiving touchdowns as a major red-zone weapon for the Bengals last season. This year, he’ll be taking passes from a motivated MVP candidate in Joe Burrow.
The Bengals are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose defence struggled in the red zone last season. That Chase number is a nice combination of probability and price.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions, anytime touchdown, -110
The Saints surrendered 25 passing touchdowns last season, and Brown is a key cog in the Lions’ red-zone offence, on home field no less. Brown scored 11 touchdowns in 2025, and the Lions’ offence is stacked.
Best NFL Week 1 Quarterback TD Props
Josh Allen, Bills, anytime touchdown, +125
My best QB bet, since for me Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL. Remember, this market means an Allen rushing or receiving touchdown, not a passing TD.
Allen had 14 rushing touchdowns in 2025, third-most in the NFL. He’s a beast as well when he gets rumbling – 579 yards rushing last season.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles, anytime touchdown, +125
Like Allen, maybe even a better pick here than the Buffalo QB, since Philadelphia treats him almost like a second goal-line running back, as opposed to relying on him to scramble when a passing play breaks down. Hurts scored eight rushing touchdowns inside the 10 last year. The Tush Push comes into play as well, with Hurts becoming one of the Eagles’ primary goal-line backs.
Best Anytime Touchdown Props for Sunday
Take a look at Omarion Hampton of the Chargers, against the Cardinals, at -140. Hampton had five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in just nine games last season. He’s a central piece of the Chargers’ running game, with the Chargers heavily favoured against the Cardinals at -600 on the moneyline.
