Rodrigues’ knockout power, de Ridder’s path to a decision and Spivac’s grappling provide three intriguing betting angles tonight
For UFC fans and bettors, UFC Fight Night events, like tonight’s in Sacramento, are tougher plays. The absence of superstar names makes it more interesting for serious bettors, since you have to do more homework.
UFC Fight Night events mostly highlight up-and-coming fighters. For a Conor McGregor, Islam Makhachev, or Ilia Topuria event, for example, the bulk of bettors flock towards the bigger names. With Fight Nights, bettors are weighing quality of opposition, wrestling, striking volume, reach, cardio – all that comes into play.
In UFC betting at Betway, for tonight’s Fight Night, the main card starts at 8 p.m. EST.
Anthony Hernandez, ranked No. 6, takes on Gregory Rodrigues, ranked No. 11, in a middleweight bout. Betway has Hernandez as the -225 favourite, with Rodrigues at +175.
No. 6-ranked Serghei Spivac takes on Vitor Petrino in a heavyweight bout. Petrino is the -138 favourite with Spivac at +110.
Reinier De Ridder fights Roman Dolidze in a light heavyweight bout. De Ridder is the -400 favourite, with Dolidze at +300.
Marquel Mederos takes on Mason Jones in a lightweight bout, with Jones the big favourite at -334, Mederos at +250.
Carli Judice fights Jeisla Chaves in a women’s flyweight bout. Betway has Judice as the big -550 favourite, with Chaves at +400.
And finally on the main card, Anthony Wint goes up against Terrance Chatman in a heavyweight fight. Betway has Wint as the massive -1000 favourite, with Chatman at +600.
So where do we go? Props are more attractive than moneylines in several of these.
Lots of money is going on Rodrigues as the underdog, so the sharps see something there, respect for Rodrigues’ power no doubt.
Rodrigues has a high volume of KO/TKO wins (12 in his career) and enters the fight on a three-fight win streak, most recently a KO win at 1:47 of Round 1 against Brunno Ferreira in March. I see him finishing the fight early before Hernandez’s grappling skills take over.
Take Rodrigues to win at +175, or Rodrigues to win by KO, TKO or disqualification (+175). I am also leaning the Under on Total Rounds (+150), to be honest. Hernandez is a fine grappler, with cardio advantages, who tends to take over later, but he’s coming off a knockout loss to Sean Strickland in February.
Rodrigues by KO is getting a lot of money in the betting markets, a very valuable plus-money play.
Lots of bettor love is going to De Ridder as well, but I’m not going there at -400. He has 13 submission victories and brought his weight up to 205 for this fight, so why not take de Ridder by decision at +120? Dolidze, a capable wrestler, has never been knocked out in his professional MMA career, and four of his five losses have come via decision. De Ridder by submission is at +225 at Betway, since you asked.
Finally, let’s go heavyweight – Spivac as the underdog at +110. Petrino is younger and has power, but Spivac’s strength is takedowns and sustained heavyweight grappling. Petrino has to be very wary of spending extended time underneath Spivac, which can get taxing.
