Soccer Picks: NYCFC Home Edge Makes Moneyline the Best Bet vs. Toronto FC

31 Jul | news | BY Mark Keast | MIN READ TIME |
Soccer Picks: NYCFC Home Edge Makes Moneyline the Best Bet vs. Toronto FC

Niklas Dorsch makes his Toronto FC debut, but NYCFC's home form and attacking options provide the most value

Toronto FC made a big signing this week, bolstering their midfield by bringing in Niklas Dorsch from FC Heidenheim 1846 of Germany’s second division.

The midfielder will suit up for tonight’s MLS game in New York, and his signing couldn’t come soon enough – the squad’s midfield problems have been the primary storyline so far this season.

Dorsch, 28, is locked down with TFC through 2030-31 and brings European club-level experience, with 243 appearances in Germany and Belgium.

He’ll team up with Colombia international Nelson Palacio, also acquired recently, to bolster the back line. Dorsch breaks up attacks and wins tackles, and he’s adept at starting attacks with accurate passes. That’s why he is here. TFC has given up 31 goals in 17 games this season.

“We are excited to welcome Niklas to Toronto,” said Toronto FC General Manager Jason Hernandez. “Niklas joins us after several seasons in strong European competition. His skillset, mentality, and work rate will be a welcome addition to our midfield. We look forward to Niklas playing a big role at the club for years to come.”

We’ll see what kind of impact he has tonight, and how that impacts betting choices. He’ll make Toronto tougher to play against on the defensive side of the ball. Goalscoring is another issue – with just 23, Toronto FC ranks among the lowest in MLS.

Toronto FC (3-7-7) is in New York to face New York City FC (7-4-6) tonight at 7:30 p.m. EST at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. In soccer betting at Betway, New York City FC is the -154 favourite, Toronto is +350, and the draw is +300.

New York City FC Moneyline (-154) is the logical play tonight. NYCFC has been strong at home (4-2-3), earning 14 of its 23 points there.

Under 2.5 Goals (+115) offers solid plus-money value, with Toronto FC struggling to generate consistent scoring chances. Despite having just joined the team, Dorsch should help make Toronto FC more sound defensively, impacting the total goals markets.

I’m also going to lean Both Teams to Score (No) at +110, with NYCFC difficult to break down on their home pitch. In fact, tonight feels like an NYCFC 1-0 or 2-0 win.

On the player prop side, what about NYCFC’s Hannes Wolf anytime goalscorer at +160? Wolf scored a hat trick in a 3-0 home win over the Columbus Crew on May 10 and has five goals this season.

Even with Dorsch out there, NYCFC should have the edge in possession, giving Wolf quality looks.

Another NYCFC player, Talles Magno Bacelar, is +130 Anytime Goalscorer at Betway and is also worth a look. Magno averages 3.82 shots and 1.59 shots on target per 90 minutes, according to Footy Stats. He scores once every six shots he takes.

 

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