FIFA's Balogun eligibility saga clouds USA-Belgium betting, while Spain looks to continue its dominant World Cup run against Portugal
There’s a FIFA mess raging this morning, over the availability of U.S. striker Folarin Balogun for tonight’s Round of 16 match in Seattle between the U.S. and Belgium.
Balogun was given a red card during the team’s Round of 32 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, a call deemed a bad challenge on defender Tarik Muharemovic, which Balogun and many others felt was a bad call, since both men, they said, were battling for position.
As per the rules, the red card meant Balogun couldn’t play tonight. After a review, though, FIFA reversed the decision, and deferred Balogun’s suspension. Queue outrage from the Belgium side. Media news reporting detailed a call between U.S. President Donald Trump and FIFA president Gianni Infantino where Trump protested the decision. Trump then issued a social media missive lauding the reversal.
This morning, there are news reports that FIFA has asked both football federations to make their case as to why Balogun should play or shouldn’t play, suggesting the case isn’t closed yet. So we have a mess of FIFA’s making playing out, with big impacts on betting for tonight’s match.
Portugal versus Spain, 3 p.m. EST, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas. In World Cup betting at Betway, Spain is the betting favorite at -115, Portugal is +300, and the draw is priced at +260.
Spain is a powerhouse, +600 to win the tournament, after France (+187), Argentina (+450), and England (+550). Remember, Spain hasn’t given up a goal the entire tournament, led by the emergence of Lamine Yamal.
This could the final World Cup match for Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, who, even at 41, looked brilliant during Portugal’s epic Round of 32 win over Croatia in Toronto last week. That win was determined by a controversial VAR decision and make of that what you will from a betting perspective.
This morning, bettors are weighing whether the world class individual talent on Portugal – Ronaldo, Goncalo Ramos, Bruno Fernandes and others – can overcome Spain.
My money this morning is on Spain to Win (-115), coming off that strong 3-0 win over Austria, and after seeing Croatia push Portugal to the edge.
Ronaldo will put everything on the line tonight, so go 1+ Shots on Target (-267 at Betway). He has three goals in the tournament and remains central to Portugal’s attack.
United States versus Belgium, 8 p.m. EST, Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington. This one is tight at Betway – USA +140, Belgium +175, and the draw priced at +240.
Whatever comes out of the Folarin Balogun situation today is going to move the betting market as we get closer to kickoff.
As of now, he is playing. Balogun is an elite, European-based striker with three goals in three World Cup matches, and his availability changes how Belgium prepares defensively. If he is cleared to play, the U.S. attack looks far more dangerous.
I’m expecting goals, so Over 2.5 (-163) is the play here. But with uncertainty still hanging over Balogun’s status as of 10 a.m. EST, Christian Pulisic Anytime Goalscorer (+175) is the safer U.S. player prop. Pulisic 1+ Assist as well, at +375.
The Balogun situation makes me wary of taking a firm moneyline position.
