Spain, Portugal and Switzerland headline today’s knockout betting card, with injuries, heat and upset potential shaping the board
The biggest World Cup story yesterday was the controversial red card handed to dominant U.S. striker Folarin Balogun during a Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina, meaning he’s now unavailable for the Round of 16 match against Belgium Monday, putting the U.S.’s entire World Cup in doubt. Malicious? No, not at all, which is why it’s the major point of discussion on social media and legacy sports media platforms around the continent today.
Balogun had the first goal during last night’s 2-0 U.S. win over Bosnia and Herzegovina.
At Betway, that pushes the U.S. tournament winner odds to +3300.
Toronto is about to be taken over by soccer madness, with Portugal and Croatia meeting tonight in a Round of 32 match at Toronto Stadium — and two legends of the game, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modrić, possibly playing their final World Cup match.
Spain takes on Austria at 3 p.m. EST at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. In World Cup betting at Betway, Spain is a heavy -350 favourite, Austria is +1000, and the draw is priced at +425.
What kind of impact will 18-year-old Lamine Yamal have for Spain, eased back into the lineup from a tore hamstring, where he had his minutes limited during group play, scoring twice.
Spain is still a solid betting favorite to win the tournament, at +750, following France priced at +187, and Argentina at +450.
“They play very attractive football,” said Austria captain David Alaba, per Reuters. “They have enormous quality and individual players that can make a difference. But we don’t want to hide. We really want to play forward and try to be successful.”
Austria will be without defender Phillipp Mwene for the match, due to injury.
Spain has been hit by the injury bug as well – Nico Williams is out with groin issue, Yeremy Pino sidelined with a shoulder/collarbone issue, and Victor Munoz is also in doubt with a thigh issue, although news reports this morning have him fit to play. In part, that puts more of an onus on Yamal.
Spain, though, has yet to give up a goal in the tournament. There backline is organized, and that’s where their edge over Austria really sits.
Even with the attacking injuries, it’s tempting to go with Spain outright, since they have the tools to control possession, but the value is more in the Under 2.5 Total Goals (+115). Both Teams to Score (No), at -150 at Betway, with Spain’s defensive form, combined with Austria’s struggles against organized sides, makes a clean sheet for La Roja a very realistic outcome.
Portugal versus Croatia, 7 p.m. EST, BMO Field, Toronto. Portugal is a -143 favorite at Betway this morning, Croatia +375, and a draw is priced at +260.
Why does this feel like it has upset potential? I am looking at all the upsets we’ve seen so far, led by Germany falling to Paraguay Monday night.
Portugal has underwhelmed – finishing second in Group K, after two draws and a win. It’s going to touch 90 degrees F, with severe humidity, and a heat warning in place, when they step on the pitch at BMO Field (Toronto Stadium) tonight, and while there will be the emotional push behind Ronaldo, 41, and Modrić, 40, pace/fitness in the heat will be a big issue.
Still, Portugal, with the deeper attacking squad, to advance feels like the safer pick. So that’s where I am going, plus the Under 2.5 Total Goals (+105), since Croatia can slow matches down.
Switzerland versus Algeria kicks off at 11 p.m. EST at BC Place in Vancouver. Switzerland is a +100 favourite, Algeria is +300, and the draw is priced at +220.
Switzerland is in the driver seat, after going unbeaten so far, with two wins, one draw), scoring seven goals while showing discipline. Johan Manzambi, with three goals, Breel Embolo and Ruben Vargas leading the charge. Algeria gave up seven goals in their three group stage games.
Switzerland has minimal injury issues, while Algeria is dealing with doubts on forward Mohamed El Amine Amoura (hamstring) and the unstable goalkeeper rotation of Oussama Benbot or Luca Zidane, marked by inconsistent performances.
Both teams showed an attacking bent in group play, but Algeria leaked goals defensively, conceding seven in the group stage. Switzerland’s unbeaten run, superior depth and organization give the Swiss the edge in Vancouver tonight, so I like Switzerland to win. Given Algeria’s defensive issues, I’m also leaning Over 2.5 Total Goals (+110), with Over 3.5 (+260) worth a smaller, higher-risk look.
