Mercedes is in a position to dominate this weekend's Canadian Grand Prix, both the Sprint Race and tomorrow full Grand Prix
If you’re wondering if summer has not only arrived, this weekend’s cold, rainy weather conditions in Toronto aside, but it’s in fact blowing past us, the arrival of the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal this weekend probably has something to do with that.
Traditionally, the Canadian GP race has been held in mid-June, the 10th race on the F1 calendar, marking the unofficial kick off to summertime.
F1 moved it up a month though, closer to the Miami Grand Prix, for travel reasons, mostly. After this weekend the series heads back overseas for a European stretch of races.
Organizers I am sure were worrying about logistical headaches with the Montreal Canadiens in the NHL’s Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes, with the city consumed by all things Habs right now.
What kind of focus could F1 organizers expect to see on the races today and tomorrow with the Canadiens making a Stanley Cup run, all in the centre of hockey’s universe?
The scheduling gods tossed race organizers a break, though.
Game 2 of the series is tonight in Carolina, with the Canadiens up 1-0. Game 3 is back at the Bell Centre, in Montreal, after F1 leaves town.
BEST BETS
Momentum of the F1 circuit is swinging to the favour of the 19-year-old Italian driver Kim Antonelli, who clinched his third consecutive career race win in the Mercedes car at the Miami Grand Prix, and now leads teammate George Russell by 20 points in the F1 drivers’ championship after four races.
Lando Norris, the reigning F1 champion, finished second at Miami, with teammate Oscar Piastri finishing third.
The Canadian Grand Prix is a little different this year because it’s a Sprint weekend – effectively meaning there are two F1 races instead of one.
Today’s Sprint Race is shorter, around 100 km, and awards points to the top eight finishers.
The Canadian Grand Prix starts at 4 pm. EST tomorrow, to avoid a clash with the Indianapolis 500. The full Grand Prix is 70 laps, with full championship points awarded.
Russell claimed pole position after sprint qualifying yesterday and is -182 at Betway.
Teams will line up on the Montreal grid two-by-two after Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull all claimed a row each during sprint qualifying.
Norris edged his McLaren teammate Piastri to claim third on the grid after Russell and Antonelli.
In Betway odds this morning, for Sunday’s full Grand Prix race, it’s Russell +130, Antonelli +160, Norris +700, Piastri +900, Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) +1200, Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) +1200, Max Verstappen (Red Bull) +1400, then a deep water drop off on odds to Isaak Hadjar (Red Bull) at +40000.
Qualifying for the tomorrow’s Grand Prix is later this afternoon, starting at 4 p.m. EST
Lewis said yesterday it was the “best I’ve felt all year” and is confident so he might be worth a look at +1200 for tomorrow. Hamilton scored his first career F1 win in Montreal, back in 2007, and holds a joint-record total of seven wins at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve track.
But it’s difficult not to go with Antonelli tomorrow, at +160. Mercedes is showing elite pace again in Montreal, and Antonelli topped the lone practice session, coming in on his three-race winning streak.
It’s going to be in the low 50s tomorrow, with a 65% chance of rain, and the wet conditions could also play to Antonelli’s advantage. His teammate Russell is looking to close that gap in the drivers’ standings, but the smart money is on the 19-year-old.
Verstappen might also be worth a look for tomorrow, at +1400, since he is extremely dangerous at Montreal. With the unpredictable weather for tomorrow, this is the type of opportunity where Verstappen could steal a podium without having the fastest car.
Mercedes is the class of the field this weekend in Montreal, looking dominant, on a track that plays to the team’s strengths, mixing long straights and heavy braking, but since it’s a Sprint weekend there’s only one practice, so strategy and reliability will rule.
Mercedes has four wins so far this year, also bringing their first major upgrade package of the 2026 season to Montreal. Rivals like McLaren, Red Bull and Ferrari brought big upgrades to the Miami race, but Mercedes held off until this one, including aerodynamic upgrades like a revised front wing.
