Verstappen, Hamilton and changing Spa weather create intriguing betting angles despite Antonelli entering Sunday as the clear favorite
At 19, Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli’s push to become the youngest-ever Formula 1 champion had another boost by scoring the pole position for tomorrow’s Belgian Grand Prix, the eleventh race on the F1 schedule.
In today’s qualifying, it was Antonelli holding off a push from Red Bull teammates Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar, beating Verstappen by 0.317 of a second.
Mercedes teammate George Russell will start third on the grid.
“The gap in qualifying even with a massive tow is still three-tenths, so I don’t really expect to race (Mercedes) tomorrow,” said Verstappen, per the Associated Press.
It was a disappointing day for Ferrari, with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton finishing fifth and sixth. Leclerc is coming off the win at the British Grand Prix. Hamilton was coming off a crash in practice.
In the F1 drivers’ standings, Russell has closed the gap behind Antonelli for the No. 1 spot by just 25 points, going into tomorrow’s race.
The Belgian Grand Prix starts at 2 p.m. BST (9 a.m. EST). In Formula 1 betting at Betway, Antonelli is -250 to win the race, followed by Verstappen (+325), Russell (+850), Hamilton (+2200), Leclerc (+2500), and Lando Norris (+2500).
Norris qualified third fastest but will line up from 13th as he serves a 10-place grid penalty for exceeding his allocated number of engine parts.
Weather is a factor affecting the race. Spa-Francorchamps is known for its changing climate, with many previous editions of the race affected by heavy rainfall.
Rainfall increases the chances of safety cars, strategy gambles and surprise podiums. It reduces the advantage that the fastest cars have.
There’s some potential wet weather in store for tomorrow, as conditions drift away from the heatwaves of recent weeks. But it’s more of a long shot.
The forecast is for seasonably cooler temperatures, with a high of 19 degrees C and a low of 8 degrees C. Any fog that develops should be gone by 9 a.m. BST. A front will move through in the morning and again in the afternoon; however, precipitation is unlikely. Overall, it looks favourable for racing.
Overtaking is easier at Spa, especially because of the long Kemmel Straight.
Knowing that, I’ll take Antonelli to win the race (-225), since Spa-Francorchamps rewards a strong engine package and consistency on its long straights and higher-speed sections of the racetrack.
I was tempted to take Verstappen to win (+300), with Red Bull’s low-drag set-up maximizing straight-line speed. Verstappen, who excels at Spa-Francorchamps (multiple wins), will want to shut down all this chatter that he’s leaving for McLaren. So, I’ll take him for a podium finish (-350).
Ferrari isn’t the fastest car, but Hamilton has a lot of experience here and starts fifth tomorrow, recovering nicely from a crash in practice. Hamilton finishing in the Top 5 is -275 at Betway.
STARTING GRID FOR BELGIAN GRAND PRIX
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
George Russell (Mercedes)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)
Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi)
Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
Franco Colapinto (Alpine)
Nico Hulkenberg (Audi)
Lando Norris (McLaren)
