Chicago have enjoyed the upper hand over their Green Bay rivals since 1933 - but a tale of two quarterbacks is about to bring that story to an end
NFL records are important.
They give the fans something to celebrate, something for the players to aspire to and an indelible memory on the pages of history.
Since all sporting success is inherently cyclical, perhaps their most important effect is to provide supporters with comfort during barren periods.
Unfortunately for Chicago Bears fans, one page of their history looks set to be torn out.
Since 1933, the Bears have held a winning series record over their arch-rivals the Green Bay Packers – a record stretching back for 82 years.
Despite only winning two of the last 14 meetings and just 12 of the last 47, they could always conceivably claim the historic upper hand.
Their record currently stands at 92-91-6 but, with the Packers 1/4 for the win and the Bears 31/10 – by the end of tomorrow it will likely be level pegging.
And here’s why…
A tale of two quarterbacks
It may seem an obvious point, but historically the side with the best quarterback tends to win the game.
On paper the two going head-to-head on Thursday appear evenly matched – with Chicago’s Jay Cutler already having racked up 11 touchdowns and four interceptions compared to the 13 and 3 registered by Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.
However, the biggest difference between the two comes in their mental toughness.
Aaron Rodgers
Before last weekend, the Packers had lost three morale-sapping games on the spin including a 18-16 defeat to bottom-of-the-barrel division rivals the Detroit Lions.
Yet they came storming back against NFC North rivals the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday after Aaron Rodgers shook off a calf strain to put in his best performance in weeks.
The two-time MVP delivered when it was needed most, at one point firing a 30 yard pass into the arms of James Jones in the corner of the end-zone with just enough pace that the receiver could get both feet in before falling out of bounds.
Even President Obama praised Rodgers’ calmness this week by comparing himself to Rodgers “in the pocket”.
He is 5/6 to produce a similar performance here and lead his team to over 26.5 points.
Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler, on the other hand, is a fine quarterback in his own right but one with a history of promising performances that can disintegrate without warning – and this season it has been the same story.
Positive murmurs started in the summer when Cutler went 11 consecutive practises without throwing an interception, albeit in a training camp.
Yet even at the start of the season, better communication with his receivers meant faster snaps and less hesitation in getting the ball off.
This led to a fall in both turnovers and interceptions, peaking with a passer rating of 100.5 against the Chargers and then 151 against the Rams.
But then last weekend happened, with Cutler once again displaying his mental fragility after throwing two interceptions – one on a sack – no touchdowns and making only 265 yards.
Having started the 2014 season brightly before being benched following a poor spell there is a strong chance that he could be about to embark on a similar run of bad performances – especially against a side that have proved troublesome for the Bears recently.
Consequently, it is evens for the Bears to score under 18 points in the game.
When it comes to mental toughness, Rodgers has it and Cutler does not.
That is why the Bears’ long-standing record will come to an abrupt end tonight.
At least Chicago might have a better chance of reclaiming the historical lead next time around.
