Attempting to predict how this week's Monday Night Football will pan out statistically could lead to false positives
Sometimes you watch an NFL game and have a very good idea of how it is going to end before you start.
Take, for instance, the Cincinnati Bengals v Cleveland Browns last time out.
This writer predicted that the Browns would lose, and lose hard.
That was down to a mixture of gut feeling and the fact that the Browns are currently terrible. They duly got hammered 31-10.
There are a few times in the season, however, where it can be almost impossible to pick a winner before the game.
Not just in the standard ‘anything-can-happen-in-football’ kind of way, but in the sense that a historical record of success may conflict with recent performances, injuries and player form.
This is the situation for Cincinnati Bengals v Houston Texans in this week’s Monday Night Football.
Bengals
Statistically, the Bengals justify their mile-long 2/13 favourites tag.
As previously mentioned, they mauled the Browns last time out to reach 8-0 for the first time in their franchise’s history.
On-fire Quarterback Andy Dalton completed 21 of his 27 passes for 234 yards, while his key running back Jeremy Hill has four touchdowns in his last five games.
Monster tight-end Tyler Eifert, meanwhile, has nine receiving touchdowns – the highest in the NFL.
One more will see him become the first Bengals TE to run in 10 in a single season.
The Texans are 10/11 to score over 18 points – it seems a steal.
The one caveat being that much of those impressive, imposing statistics were inflated from just the previous game, since the Browns offered so little in the way of defence.
Three of Eifert’s TD’s and a large chunk of Dalton’s passing numbers came out of it.
What’s more, of Jeremy Hill’s four TD’s, three were in the same game against the Chiefs, meaning you could also say he has had no touchdowns in his last two games despite making more yards.
The point is not to suggest that Cincinnati are not as good a team as they seem they are. They are one of only three teams still unbeaten in the NFL, after all.
The point is that trying to decide how a match will pan out statistically can often be selective and lead to false positives.
Stats may not accurately suggest how they or the Texans will fare.
Texans
Texans QB Brian Hoyer is having a pretty decent season himself, even if the results haven’t always reflected that.
He has completed 111 of 181 passes in his last five games, with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions for his troubles.
Demolition man and fan favourite J.J. Watt has 19.5 QB sacks in his last 13 games – with two just against the Titans last time out.
Add in three forced fumbles, seven pass deflections and a TD reception and you can see where their strength comes from.
Despite Watt, the Texans still don’t seem statistically on the same level at 19/4 for the win – even when considering they have beaten Cincinnati five of the last six times they’ve met.
So where do the non-numerical factors come in?
Well, the biggest one has to be motivation.
Despite being 3-5, Houston still have a good chance at making the playoffs.
The long-term awfulness of the Jaguars and Titans mean they remain second in the AFC South, one win behind the Colts.
So for the Texans, it is, to once again borrow popular football parlance, all still to play for.
What’s more, they have just come off a bye week, hence why they’re a game behind the Colts.
Not only are teams re-energised after a week off, but the extra time enables Houston to have Duane Brown and rookie linebacker Benardrick McKinney available after completing the league’s concussion protocol.
Taking the numbers out of the equation shows us that the game is in fact a lot tighter than it first appeared.
Hence why, for the first time in a while, it is so hard to predict a winner with ease.
With everyone backing the Bengals, perhaps an upset might prove the point.
