#BetYourWay Builder: 5 NFL tips for the Super Bowl
Jack Green's NFL tips for Sunday night's season finale in Miami include the money line, first-half result, points total and two player props.
Chiefs to win
With the Chiefs currently favoured by a point, this is an extremely tough Super Bowl to call. The spread has only ever been this close on one other occasion, and that was all the way back in 1983.
But it’s no surprise that the handicap is so tight given how evenly-matched the two teams are.
The Chiefs are seemingly unstoppable on offense and have become much better defensively over the last few weeks, while the 49ers have an incredible defence and rely upon a rushing attack that has torched teams all season.
Ultimately, this bet comes down to the fact that one team has Patrick Mahomes and one doesn’t.
The Kansas City quarterback has rediscovered his 2018 MVP-winning form in the playoffs, having struggled with injuries earlier in the season.
He was almost flawless in the AFC championship win over the Tennessee Titans and it’s hard to see how he can be stopped, even by the 49ers’ excellent defence.
San Francisco’s running game was dominant in their NFC championship win over the Green Bay Packers, but the Chiefs held Titans running back Derrick Henry – who was on a run of three successive 180-yard games – to just 69 yards last time out.
If they can slow down the Niners’ rushing attack, this will become a quarterback duel between Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo, giving Kansas City a major advantage.
49ers to lead at half-time
The Chiefs have struggled to get going early on throughout the playoffs. They were 24-0 down to the Houston Texans in the divisional round and trailed 17-7 to the Titans a week later.
They battled back to lead at half-time in both of those games, but the 49ers are a tougher test.
Defences usually come out fired up at the Super Bowl, so it’s fair to expect an early onslaught from Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ dangerous pass rush.
They should give San Francisco the early advantage, setting up the customary Kansas City comeback.
Over 54.5 points
Five of the last seven Super Bowls have gone over the points total, and, even though the line is very high, this one should be the same.
These teams both averaged over 28 points per game during the regular season, so there’s little chance of this game being a stinker like last year’s.
Despite Kansas City’s first-quarter struggles, they’ve scored 86 points across two playoff games, while the 49ers have scored 64.
Damien Williams to score a touchdown
After a sluggish season, Williams has come alive in the playoffs, scoring four touchdowns.
The Kansas City running back has now scored eight times across five career postseason games.
Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions
The 49ers’ cornerbacks sit off receivers more than most teams in the NFL, and they’ll be terrified of being burned deep by Kansas City speedster Tyreek Hill.
That should open up room in the middle for Kelce, who is Mahomes’ favourite target. The tight end had at least six catches in 11 of his 18 games this season and made 11 grabs in the playoff win over the Texans.
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