Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

As quarterback match-ups go, this might be the most one-sided in Conference Championship history.

With a career quarterback rating of 80.8 and a total of just two playoff appearances to date, Blake Bortles shouldn’t really stand a chance of beating five-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady.

The Jaguars have made it this far, however, thanks to their fantastic defence, which conceded the second-fewest points in the regular season and generated the second-most turnovers.

They proved against the Steelers last week that they can overpower the league’s elite offenses, but the Patriots are clearly their toughest opponents to date.

The Super Bowl champions have won 12 of their last 13 games and haven’t lost at home in the playoffs since 2012.

It’s no surprise that they’re the favourites, but there isn’t much value in backing them to reach the Super Bowl at that price.

Instead, back the Jaguars to keep this game close.

Their fast, relentless defence should cause problems early on against Brady, whose career record of 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in the Conference round with a passer rating of 81.1 is hardly dominant.

Jacksonville ranked fifth in points scored and second in points against this season, and, if they can take the load off Bortles with their excellent running game, they should stay in touch of the Patriots and maybe even cause another upset.

Back the Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
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Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

After beating the Saints last weekend in arguably the most incredible finish to an NFL playoff game ever, the Vikings have to go again in what should be a tough trip to Philadelphia.

The Eagles are coming off perhaps their best defensive performance of the season, having held the Falcons to just 10 points last week, and will fancy their chances against a Vikings offense that struggled in the second half of their win over New Orleans.

Minnesota QB Case Keenum didn’t have much joy in the final two quarters against the Saints until his game-winning touchdown pass to Stephon Diggs, but, while the 29-year-old isn’t a star who can win a game on his own, he is the better of the two quarterbacks playing on Sunday night.

Nick Foles played well for the Eagles last weekend but has been shaky since replacing the injured Carson Wentz in Week 14.

The Vikings’ defence were the league’s best in the regular season and are fast starters – they didn’t allow a single point in the first half last week – and Philadelphia could find themselves in trouble if Foles is put under early pressure.

New Orleans needed an almost perfect second half to have a chance against the Vikings last Sunday, and Philadelphia just don’t have the offensive firepower under Foles to mount a similar comeback if required.

A clear win for the visitors is the right bet.

Back the Minnesota Vikings (-3)
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*Odds subject to change.