NFL betting tips: 4 picks against the spread for Week 13
Guy Giles makes his NFL betting picks for Week 13 of the 2022 season, with four bets against the spread.
ATLANTA FALCONS (+0.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
As shown by the half-point spread, this is set to be a tight game for two teams with similar records.
Pittsburgh is slightly favoured on the road after winning two of its last three, with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett looking much more comfortable under centre in recent weeks.
Atlanta’s loss to Washington in Week 12 means it has lost three of its last four but, unlike the Steelers, who are unlikely to make the playoffs, the Falcons have a legitimate chance to reach the postseason given they’re just half a game back on Tampa Bay in the dire NFC South.
Arthur Smith’s team are a solid 4-2 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium this year and own a top-10 record against the spread at 7-5-0.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has gone 2-4 on the road in 2022, and 5-5-1 against the spread.
The Steelers are on the road again after a Monday night game in Indianapolis, so this could be a tough turnaround for them.
DENVER BRONCOS (+8.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
It may seem silly to back the Broncos considering how badly their season is going, with a 3-8 record behind some poor performances from quarterback Russell Wilson.
Denver has, however, been involved in a lot of tight games this season, with nine of their 11 games decided by a score or less.
The Broncos defense has been stellar all year, with their 17.6 points allowed per game ranking them in the top four in the entire league, but Wilson and the offense have failed to capitalise.
Baltimore is looking good at 7-4 and the top of the AFC North, but the Ravens have been far from convincing, consistently giving up strong positions late in the game.
Lamar Jackson should be able to lead his team to their eighth win in this one, but the Denver defense can be trusted to help them keep this one tight, while Wilson should hopefully find some rhythm against a Ravens defense that ranks in the bottom six for passing yards allowed.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-1.5) @ New York Giants
These are two teams going in opposite directions, and we’re riding the hot hand here.
The Commanders have won three straight, including a 32-21 win in Philadelphia to end the Eagles’ unbeaten run, to climb right back into the playoff race in the NFC.
The Giants are on the slide, losing three of their last four. They remain firmly in the postseason hunt, but need to arrest the slump quickly.
It always felt like a 7-2 record to start the season was slightly fraudulent, and it feels like we’re now seeing that expected regression, although there can be no denying that first-year head coach Brian Daboll is doing a brilliant job.
Washington simply looks a different team with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback and, with Chase Young potentially returning to the pass rush unit, the Commanders can be trusted to continue rolling on in this one.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-0.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Both these teams won tight battles in Week 12, with the Chargers beating the Cardinals thanks to a last-second two-point conversion, while the Raiders overcame the Seahawks in overtime.
It’s been a highly disappointing season for the Raiders and head coach Josh McDaniels, with their recent uptick in form likely to come too late for a late playoff push.
Brandon Staley and the Chargers have also slightly underperformed this year, although their 6-5 record puts them right in the hunt for a wild card spot.
Luckily for Los Angeles, quarterback Justin Herbert looks to be heating up at the right time as he looked back to his best in a three-touchdown show last week.
With the spread giving us nothing here, this one simply comes down to which is the better team, and that is Los Angeles.