NFL betting tips: 4 picks against the spread for Week 12
Guy Giles makes his NFL betting picks for Week 12 of the 2022 season, with four bets against the spread.
CHICAGO BEARS (+6.5) @ New York Jets
The Bears lost their fourth straight game in Week 11 as they fell 27-24 to the Atlanta Falcons, but can count themselves unlucky, with their last three losses coming by a field goal or less.
The Chicago offense is firing on all cylinders at the moment, averaging 29.6 points per game over their last five.
Much of that has been down to the play of Justin Fields, who has been breaking rushing records from quarterback, but a left shoulder injury could potentially mean he misses out this weekend.
If he does, Trevor Siemian would be under center for Chicago, and their offensive output would take a significant hit, but they can still be trusted to keep pace with a Jets franchise that has quarterback issues of its own.
Following a dire nine-completion, 77-yard performance from Zach Wilson in a 10-3 loss to New England in Week 11, head coach Robert Saleh announced in midweek that Mike White will be taking over as starter.
White has performed well when called upon previously, but it’s a big ask to instantly revive an offense averaging just 16.6 points over their last five games.
In what could be quite a low-scoring game, take the Bears and the points.
TENNESSEE TITANS (+2.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals
After quite a slow start to the season, the Titans are beginning to look like serious contenders in the AFC, with four wins in their last five taking them to 7-3 on the season.
They are perfect at home since a 21-20 defeat by the New York Giants on opening day, and now host a Cincinnati team which has lost three times on the road this season.
The Bengals are beginning to heat up themselves, winning four of their last five to climb to 6-4 and second place in the AFC North.
However, a heavy loss to the Browns in Week 8 and a tight game against the 3-7 Steelers last weekend suggest Cincinnati has some work to do as we head towards the playoffs.
As suggested by the spread, this should be a tight game, but the Titans and the points looks like the play. Tennessee is an NFL-best 8-2-0 against the spread this season, including 3-1-0 at home and 1-0-0 as a home underdog.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-13.5) vs Houston Texans
Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from concussion protocol in the midst of a three-game losing streak, the Miami Dolphins have reeled off four straight wins to rise to the top of a competitive AFC East.
Now, coming off their bye, they face a Houston franchise which owns the worst record in the NFL at 1-8-1, with its only win coming nearly two months ago.
Houston’s struggles have now prompted a change from head coach Lovie Smith, with Kyle Allen set to replace Davis Mills under center from Week 12 onwards.
Whether a change at quarterback will make much difference is debatable, particularly when you look at Allen’s NFL career. In 17 starts, the 26-year-old has thrown for 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
The spread in this one is big, but the gulf in quality between these two teams is even bigger, and the Dolphins should blow out the Texans on Sunday.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5) vs New Orleans Saints
This is another big spread that reflects another game this weekend with a significant difference in quality.
The 49ers have looked incredible since they acquired Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers, brushing off a 44-23 defeat by the Kansas City Chiefs in his debut with three straight wins to take their record to 6-4.
Their 38-10 demolition of the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City on Monday night was rather ominous for the rest of the NFC, with San Francisco’s offense finally looking a worthy match for their defense, which leads the league in yards allowed per game (283.9).
The Saints are somehow keeping pace in a poor NFC South, with their 27-20 win over the Rams in Week 11 taking them to 4-7 and third place in the division.
New Orleans has won just once on the road and is 0-4-0 against the spread away this season. They are the only team in the NFL to fail to cover once as the away team.
Don’t overthink this one – the 49ers should keep things rolling with a big win on Sunday.