The horse racing broadcaster offers his best bets for each race on Saturday at Ascot, as the Royal Meeting comes to a close.
14:30 Chesham Stakes
The final day at Royal Ascot kicks off with one of the smaller fields of the week in the 7f Chesham Stakes for two-year-olds. HUMIDITY / (14:30 Ascot) is a full brother to previous Chesham winner Holloway Boy, who won this on debut in 2022 and so was of immediate interest for this race when scoring on his debut at Newbury. He knew his job that day, but the race has worked out really well, with four next time winners and four places from the 10 runners that have had a second run. It looks a very reliable piece of form, so it was no surprise that he was bought by Wathnan Racing after Newbury and he can continue what has been a very good week for Andrew Balding.
15:05 Hardwicke Stakes
The ground is going to be a key factor on this final day and is the decider between choosing REBEL’S ROMANCE / (15:05 Ascot) over Al Riffa in the Hardwicke. It has already had a significant impact in being too fast for the short-priced ante post favourite Kalpana to be declared and this opens the door for the Godolphin globe trotter who has faced similar conditions on those travels several times. He ran third here in the King George behind Goliath and Bluestocking on his sole domestic run last season and whilst successful over further at York last time in the Yorkshire Cup it was won through speed not stamina. At a bigger price Tabletalk will handle the ground and is a really genuine performer so in a shallow renewal could well make the frame.
15:40 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
As mentioned earlier in the week, the domestic sprint division is not strong. Japan are yet to make the impact on Royal Ascot that they have on global events elsewhere, largely because it comes at a time of year when many of the better horses are on breaks for the major domestic events in the autumn. As a result, none of their 10 previous runners at Royal Ascot have even made the frame, but the fast ground means SATONO REVE / (15:40 Ascot) must enter calculations on his two placings in the Hong Kong sprint behind the world’s leading speedster in Ka Ying Riding. He has also won domestically in June, which means he has previously been brought to hand this time of year.
Lazzat is a major player for France, but several of the French horses have found the ground too quick and it is a big worry for him as well. Inisherin heads the domestic challenge, while at a huge price his stable companion Grand Grey should not be completely ruled out. He has run well on both his starts since joining Kevin Ryan but has blown the start on both occasions. If he can jump on terms, he could outrun his massive price.
16:20 Jersey Stakes
COMANCHE BRAVE / (16:20 Ascot) confirmed his much-improved run behind Henri Matisse in the Red Rocks was no fluke with a creditable run behind Field of Gold in the Irish Guineas. The 1m trip just looked to stretch him, and the drop back in trip and grade looks to make him the one to beat. Marvelman was well-backed before chasing home Cosmic Year at Newmarket and that puts him in the mix as well. He blew his handicap mark that day, but it has long been an ambition of the owner to have a Royal Ascot winner and for a 7f horse this represents the best opportunity.
17:00 Wokingham Stakes
With the Hunt Cup and Britannia both going to well-backed favourites, bookmakers will be hoping for some respite in the Wokingham. They may get it, as the drying ground could count against long-time market leader More Thunder, cleverly reinvented as a sprinter by William Haggas but looking to need every yard of this trip. COMPLETELY RANDOM / (17:00 Ascot) is another come-from-behind horse but impressed at both Southwell and Leicester and this big-field handicap could set up nicely for him. A higher draw would have been preferable based on events so far this week, and it brings course specialist Holkham Bay into the mix at a big price.
17:35 Golden Gates Stakes
SERAPH GABRIEL / (17:35 Ascot) got checked at a crucial stage at Sandown last time behind Fifth Column, but the silver lining from that day is that he lines up here a couple of pounds below the mark he could have been off had he had clear passage. As mentioned several times this week, an outside draw on the round course is no disadvantage, and with a strong pace likely he can be brought up the centre from off the pace. Glen to Glen looks an interesting rival based on his stable switch to Joseph O’Brien.
18:10 Queen Alexandra Stakes
And so, the traditional closer, the Queen Alexandra over the marathon 2m 5f. The key here is how much of a stamina test the race becomes. There does not look to be much pace, and Dallas Star could get the run of the race up front, which would count against confirmed stayers like Samui. Willie Mullins saddles the favourite in Sober but he is another whose Flat form comes from France, and so conditions may well be quick enough. This leaves WILD WAVES / (18:10 Ascot) looking the most tactically versatile for Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding. The stable record in the race is good (2/11, A/E ratio 1.99) and hopefully he can add further to that record and round off what has been a great week’s racing with a win.
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