The horse racing broadcaster offers his best bets for each race on Friday at Royal Ascot, including two Group 1s.
On to Day 4 at Royal Ascot, where top billing is held by the three-year-olds with five of the seven races for the classic generation, including both the Group 1s.
14:30 Albany Stakes
First up, though, are the juveniles in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, which features a clash between Aidan O’Brien’s SIGNORA 17/10 (14:30 Ascot) and Karl Burke’s Venetian Sun. Both have the potential to be well above this grade, especially Signora, who is the juvenile I have most been looking forward to seeing this week after an extremely promising debut at Naas. The stable’s second string that day, she ran a race packed full of potential in finishing just behind Lady Iman, with Green Sense – who is also in the field – in second.
She was the only unraced runner in the line-up but finished very strongly, having taken a while to understand what was required. She also has Royal Ascot pedigree as her dam Heartache won the 2017 Queen Mary. Venetian Sun is a fine-looking filly and Karl Burke often introduces his juveniles at Carlisle (40/152, A/E ratio 1.35). The market said plenty about her work at home as she was sent off as 1/2f and she got a solid workout, beating a horse who went on to win the Hilary Needler. Preference has to be for the O’Brien filly, however, given the promise of that debut.
15:05 Commonwealth Cup
The first of two Group 1s is the Commonwealth Cup, and here SHADOW OF LIGHT 7/4 (15:05 Ascot) could turn Charlie Appleby’s week around. His 2000 Guineas third in a steadily run race screamed sprinter as he put in an 11:04 penultimate furlong. Much was made about Ruling Court picking up better than Field Of Gold, but Shadow Of Light took a length out of Ruling Court at the same point, a move that was slightly hidden from the cameras as it occurred on the outer of the field. After Shadow Of Light won the 6f Group 1 Middle Park as a juvenile, Appleby said this race would be the target and he would be put away, but the temptation of what proved a sub-standard Dewhurst was too strong and prompted an attempt at the Guineas, where he looked to get outstayed. This is no easy option – though clearly he wouldn’t have won the St. James’s Palace – with the fast ground and big field the main concerns, but in an open division he has the chance to stake his claim to be the season’s leading sprinter.
15:40 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
The day’s first handicap is over 1m 4f, where ETHICAL DIAMOND 4/1 (15:40 Ascot) looks to have been set for a repeat bid after getting run out of the race close to home last season. He was caught wide early that day and it just seemed to take its toll late on. An inside draw does require luck off the home bend and I am sure he will be ridden for it towards the inner, but he has clear claims in what otherwise looks an open event. Mount Atlas won over course and distance last July but is now 15lb higher, while French Duke is a real threat but may be tricky to settle on the early downhill run. Willie Mullins has a good Royal Ascot record (10/61, A/E 1.26) and can add to it here with Ethical Diamond.
16:20 Coronation Stakes
The second Group 1 of the day features the hugely promising FALAKEYAH 13/5 (16:20 Ascot), who made such a big impression when tanking to victory the Pretty Polly at Newmarket. She has huge scope, coupled with a desire just to get on with things, and connections sensibly resisted the lure of the Oaks at Epsom where both her physique and free going nature would have counted against her. Bypassing the French equivalent will have been a more difficult decision, but Chantilly’s loss is very much Ascot’s gain and the uphill early stages of the Coronation on the Round Mile can hopefully help her get into a nice rhythm. I doubt Jim Crowley will have much choice but to let her stride on, and in a weak year for the three-year-old fillies she can emerge as the star performer.
17:00 Sandringham Handicap
This handicap for three-year-old fillies over the straight mile is one of the hardest races of the week. Effectively a female Britannia, there are lots of fast-improving fillies with chances, including Supermodel and Miss Nightfall along with a Royal hope in Purple Rainbow. Having been largely to the front of the market with selections so far, it is time to open the shoulders with a couple of bigger prices, starting with CAJOLE 14/1 (17:00 Ascot), who makes her handicap debut having only first seen a racecourse in April.
She comes from a yard in the Gosdens who are having a great week, and I like the booking of Saffie Osborne, who has an excellent Ascot record (16/106, A/E 1.95) but is yet to ride a Royal Ascot winner, having twice come very close on Random Harvest. This may come too soon in Cajole’s development, but at the same time the handicapper has had to try and assess her ability off three quick runs, which include being runner-up to a really nice prospect in Nahraan at Wolves last time out.
17:35 Kind Edward VII Stakes
The ‘Ascot Derby’ is next up and here I really like ZAHRANN 12/5 (17:35 Ascot), who made a big impression on me when producing a telling burst of speed to win at Leopardstown last time on only his third career start. He still looked raw and a work in progress, but I much prefer him to Amiloc, who ultimately was well on top at Goodwood last time but raced very lethargically early on and may have been sucked home by the tempo. Rightly or wrongly, I am firmly in the Zahrann camp here.
18:10 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes
The finale is another big-field handicap, this time over just 5f, and is the fifth race of the day for the three-year-olds. The Epsom Dash form is well represented via Stormy Impact, Lexington Blitz and the very speedy Ruby’s Profit, who can get upset in the preliminaries. In such an open contest, though, a throw at the stumps again looks the order of the day with MAW LAM 33/1 (18:10 Ascot). Third in last year’s Queen Mary, she returns to 5f for the first time this season and chose the wrong day to try going forward over 6f last time, going too hard and just setting it up for those behind. It will be a big day for the Nicholls family with Adrian’s son Jack having his first Royal Ascot ride, but if he can just let her find her feet the helter-skelter of this race should suit her well. Jack is a name to keep an eye on, having made a good start to his career (14/92, A/E 1.26).
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