The horse racing broadcaster picks out his five best bets from Sandown and Musselburgh on Saturday, and delivers the next instalment of Cheltenham Corner looking ahead to the Festival.
A big weekend in Ireland with both days of the Dublin Racing Festival forming part of ITV’s Saturday and Sunday coverage, but with the meeting seeming to hang in the balance.
Galopin Des Champs, Gaelic Warrior, Inothewayurthinkin, Romeo Coolio, Narciso Has, Final Demand, Lossiemouth and Marine Nationale are all high‑profile horses featuring prominently in Festival markets, due to be in action at a meeting which two years ago produced 11 Festival winners.
Unlike last year, when Leopardstown had to water – so dry had the build‑up to the meeting been – this time a midweek deluge left the track flooded. Even though the ground staff worked wonders to pump off the standing water, with more rain forecast (and, since writing, an inspection now announced for Saturday’s card on Friday afternoon), it makes finding betting opportunities tricky due to the potential for non‑runners and the fact that several may be mindful of horses having hard races if their main targets are just five weeks away.
Sandown has also had its weather issues, and the hurdles course will ride particularly testing, but that won’t bother HENRI THE SECOND 100/30 (15:10 Sandown), who was runner-up to another of today’s runners, Red Dirt Road, in this race a year ago. An 8lb pull and no prep run for Red Dirt Road tilt things in favour of Henri The Second, who showed his wellbeing when a narrow second at Sandown last time over a trip too short and on ground that was fast enough. His hurdles form at the track reads 1P4122, all in races that have worked out well, and he will take plenty of beating here.
Gary Moore also has an excellent overall Sandown National Hunt record (93/690, A/E 1.24), and RIP WHEELER 6/1 (13:25 Sandown) can be forgiven his blip last time at Wincanton, where he was badly hampered early in the race and never got back involved. He had looked very progressive when winning lower‑grade races at Huntingdon and Lingfield and, with his stable’s record at the track (the yard also saddle Lylian) and recency bias improving the odds on offer, he can regain the winning thread here.
A likely strong pace and a drop back to 2m sees DENEMETHY 14/1 (EW) (14:02 Sandown) looking over the odds in the Handicap Chase. With at least four horses who usually go from the front, it could play into the hands of this strong traveller, who can be keen in the early stages. He does need a good tow into the race, as he doesn’t always find what looks likely, but that could be partly explained by his stamina being stretched, and a strongly run 2m could set things up perfectly. Given his profile, and in case he once again doesn’t fully deliver, the each-way angle (or back-to-lay in running) appeals more than a straight win selection.
Musselburgh’s two-day card provides supporting action on ITV on both Saturday and Sunday, and in the first live race it was a surprise to see WONDERFULWONDERFUL 9/1 (13:10 Musselburgh) priced up as the outsider of the field. She did too much too soon at Newbury in a Listed Mares’ race and, with Lord likely to force the issue, if she is ridden more conservatively she can outrun her odds. The two fillies in this race (Made U Blush of Dan Skelton’s the other) both look to have been underestimated, and it would be no surprise to see this market change significantly between now and the off.
Two previous winners line up in the Scottish County Hurdle, where preference is just given to AFADIL 3/1 (13:43 Musselburgh), the 2024 winner, over the horse he chased home last year, Welsh Charger. There does not look to be a massive amount of pace here, which tilts the scales in his favour, as Welsh Charger can hit a flat spot before rallying, as he did 12 months ago. Freddie Gingell knows Afadil well, and the stable of Paul Nicholls has a good record here (34/102 A/E 1.24), whilst Afadil’s own form figures at the track read 13124.
CHELTENHAM CORNER
Many Cheltenham betting markets will undergo significant changes this weekend, with so many contenders in action at the Dublin Racing Festival, but here are a few of the more significant moves after Cheltenham Trials Day and results this week.
Champion Hurdle
The sad injury to Sir Gino once again threw this division wide open. The New Lion did enough to win a race that turned into a sprint and looked to bear little resemblance to what he will encounter in March. As a result, Lossiemouth (due to run in Ireland on Sunday) was promoted to favourite in most ante-post lists.
It was good news that the injury to Sir Gino, whilst significant, appears not quite as bad as it looked at the time, and it may well open the door for Constitution Hill – who has a run on the Flat at Southwell on Friday – to come back into calculations.
There is also the added complication of several mares being prominent in the market, which will no doubt lead to similar dilemmas as to whether to run in the Champion—so richly rewarded for Golden Ace last season – or to take in the Mares, as Lossiemouth did. The Mares is now on the Thursday, on the stiffer New Course, which may also impact decision‑making.
Gold Cup
The Cotswold Chase was another small‑field trial spoiled by a slow pace. It was good to see Spillane’s Tower get back to winning ways for Jimmy Mangan, but his Festival target is likely to be determined by how other JP McManus horses such as Fact To File and Inothewayurthinkin perform at Leopardstown. Grey Dawning was not as well placed tactically in the Cotswold, made a blunder at a crucial stage (not the first time his jumping has caused issues late in a race), and was not given anything like a hard time.
Stayers’ Hurdle
The biggest impact of Saturday’s Trials Day results was the arrival of Ma Shantou on the staying scene. He ran right away from Impose Toi, whose suspect stamina finally gave out in a truer run race, and he may now, along with Strong Leader, be kept for Aintree. Ma Shantou certainly surprised me, but I still think it is easy enough to pick holes in the form, and the likes of Teahupoo and Honesty Policy look to have had their chances significantly enhanced. Impose Toi’s defeat makes it highly likely that the latter will now head here as the McManus number one and, with neither in action at the DRF, this market is pretty much formed now.
Visit Betway’s horse racing betting page.
