The horse racing broadcaster provides his four best bets for Thursday's racing at the July Newmarket meeting.
The continued dry spell means small fields for the six races that make up ITV’s six race coverage on Day 1 of the Debenhams July Festival, supported by two races from Doncaster but the focus is very much on HQ.
The ground rode very fast on the July Course last Saturday and the emphasis will be both on speed and the ability to handle such a surface. That could mean NIL BUA GAN DUA 17/2 (13:50 Newmarket) may have a better chance than his current price suggests, having been the outsider of the field at the time of writing.. His Royal Ascot run was in the 10f Golden Gates Handicap and he has yet to try this far but he is also the only likely speed in the race and if Ryan Moore can either set his own steady gallop or sit passively if someone else wishes to do so, his turn of foot could prove a very handy asset. By American Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, the fast ground should hold no fears (sire 12/52 A/E 1.54 on Good to Firm or quicker) and whilst there is some doubt about his stamina it doesn’t seem likely, given the way the race will be run, that will be taxed too severely. Three of his four opponents come from the traditional stepping stone to this race, the Queen’s Vase at Ascot and both Del Maro’s and Point of Law’s trainers, Charlie Appleby and John Gosden have excellent records in this race. Del Maro came out best that day and again looks the main threat as he also has a reasonable turn of foot and came closest to giving his yard an elusive Royal Ascot winner as they were emerging from a spell in the doldrums.
However Del Maro fares Charlie Appleby will be hoping that the much-touted Inner City Blues can land the four runner July Stakes. He has a lofty reputation which saw William Buick ride at York rather than Sandown a few Saturdays ago. A 900k Euros Breeze Up purchase, he was sent off as short as 4-9f and seemed likely in the manner that he won to progress for the experience. In line with the travails of the rest of the yard, Appleby had only saddled 10 juvenile runners by the end of June, it was as many as 34 and 30 in the last two seasons, but the shackles may be about to be released with two winners from three runners already in July and four more entered on Thursday (including two in the Doncaster 2.10 also on ITV). Inner City Blues is however clearly priced on potential and does face a potent challenger in ADAAY OF SCARLETT 15/8 (14:25 Newmarket) who has held his form remarkably well since a debut victory over on the Rowley Mile and put up a career best effort when a 40-1 second in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. There is little doubt that Inner City Blues is the better long-term prospect of the two, but in a small field the tactical nous of Adaay of Scarlett could prove decisive. Inner City Blues sire Blue Point has also not proved a natural sire of two-year-olds (A/E 0.86) versus Adaay fo Scarlett’s sire Mehmas (A/E 1.04) and Hugo Palmer’s juveniles are having an excellent season (11/52 A/E 1.33) though the overall yard form has taken a dip in recent weeks.
The three-year-old Betway Handicap over 6f features the biggest field of the afternoon and is a really competitive heat with several progressive horses. A 6lb rise may not be enough to stop THUNDER CALL 100/30 (15:00 Newmarket) who once again locks horns with Red Spells Danger, who chased him home at York having had to change course when beginning his challenge. Thunder Call seemed to pick up a bit more quickly than his rider anticipated that day and was in front for quite a while and so even on worse terms can confirm the form. This is by no means a two-horse race however, with Ten Carat Harry, Calico Blue and Starmade the first three domestic challengers’ home behind handicap blot Bacio at Royal Ascot, whilst Sea Cookie is another progressive type for in-form Tom Clover. A strong looking race which should work out well in the weeks to come.
Having spent the early part of the afternoon taking on Godolphin I want to be with them for the last live race, the 1m 4f Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes with REBEL’S ROMANCE 10/11 (15:35 Newmarket). The globe trotting star has amassed over £12m in career earnings, amassed in seven different countries, and returns to his home track for the first time since June 2022. With a pacemaker Arabian Crown employed, the race should be honestly run and crucially the ground is likely to favour him far more than chief market rival Convergent who has yet to encounter conditions this fast. It is a big query based on his sire Fascinating Rock who is 5/58 (A/E 0.65) on ground good to firm or quicker, whilst Rebel’s Romance has proved in his Stateside forays that it is right up his street.
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