The racing broadcaster has four selections for the third day at Glorious Goodwood - including one of his tracked horses - and another at Newcastle.
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GOODWOOD SELECTIONS
The chaos factor could be quite high on day three of Goodwood. The rain of Wednesday – on ground already opened up – will undoubtedly lead to many seeking the ground less trod. The cutaway will certainly be moving up the track to the 3½f point, giving a fresh strip of ground on the inside between there and the 2f pole, but will potentially be removed completely (from the 6f pole) if there is plenty of rain during racing on Wednesday. This would at least initially counteract the traditional lure of the stands side when conditions are testing at Goodwood.
In such circumstances, it is best not to spend too long trying to predict the random but just stick to choosing horses who will handle soft conditions.
The feature race is the clash between NASHWA {ODDS:1188140156:2/1} (15:35 Goodwood) and three-year-old French 1000 Guineas and Oaks winner Blue Rose Cen in the Qatar Nassau Stakes. Nashwa bounced back to her very best at Newmarket last time after an underwhelming defeat at Newcastle at the hands of Al Husn. She gets the vote as she is proven at the track and on soft ground, while the travelling aspect and the lack of course experience for jockey Aurelian Lemaitre are both factors for Blue Rose Cen to overcome. It has been really refreshing to hear trainer Christopher Head talk so enthusiastically about the importance of international competition, but from a betting perspective Nashwa has to be the percentage call.
The best of ESPIONAGE’s {ODDS:1188139191:7/4} (15:00 Goodwood) three runs last season was a second on heavy ground in a Group 1 at Saint Cloud. He returned with a win at Roscommon and lines up in the Gordon Stakes possibly en route to a crack at the St.Leger, where he is prominent in ante post markets. Artistic Star, who still has the potential for more and is also a winner on soft, rates the main danger, but at this stage his form is a step below that of Espionage.
Later on in the card, ORNELLAIA {ODDS:1188140594:9/2} (17:20 Goodwood) is a big robust juvenile who shaped with abundant promise on her debut at Newmarket. The winner that day, Sacred Angel, followed up in a better race at Ascot next time, and with even a modest amount of progress from that run Ornellaia will be very competitive here. I have largely steered clear of the juvenile races this week because of the ground, but she is the exception having nearly made the stable tracker after her debut.
STABLE TRACKER HORSE
One who did make the tracker is PERFUSE {ODDS:1188140023:13/5} (13:50 Goodwood) who raced too close to the strong pace in the King George V stakes at Ascot. Despite that, he was still in the mix at the furlong pole and looks a handicapper to follow. He has been given a bit of time to recover after having four races in comparatively quick succession, one of which was a victory on heavy ground at Nottingham.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
- Goodwood – William Buick (A/E 1.27. A standing dish this week)
- Newcastle – David Nolan (A/E 1.29 over a very long period)
- Epsom – Benoit De La Sayette (A/E 1.47. Smaller sample, but six wins and eight placings from just 28 rides at the track)
FAR FROM THE MADDING CROWD
The all-weather provides a refuge from wildly changing ground conditions, and after finishing runner-up over course and distance last time ORIGINAL THINKER (18:40 Newcastle) can get off the mark for Harriet Bethell. She just lost out to Powerful Response, who has since followed up at Hamilton, and she now takes the opportunity of racing against her own sex which can often be a hidden drop in class.
SELECTIONS
PERFUSE {ODDS:1188140156:2/1} (13:50 Goodwood)
ESPIONAGE {ODDS:1188139191:7/4} (15:00 Goodwood)
NASHWA {ODDS:1188140594:9/2} (15:35 Goodwood)
ORNELLAIA {ODDS:1188140023:13/5} (17:20 Goodwood)
ORIGINAL THINKER (18:40 Newcastle)
