The horse racing broadcaster picks out his best bets for Saturday's racing around the UK, including one in the feature race at Haydock.
Haydock’s Sprint Cup is the Group 1 finale of nine live races on ITV this Saturday, and once again the domestic set of sprinters look set to be put in their place by an overseas interloper in LAZZAT 2/1 (15:35 Haydock). His performance in beating Satono Reve at Royal Ascot rates as the best sprinting performance in this country all season. Even though he fluffed his lines when attempting a repeat victory in the Maurice de Gheest in France last time, that run will have taken the freshness out of him. Lazzat had been given a break after Ascot and was just too keen in the early stages, but with trailblazer Diligent Harry drawn just to his left, conditions look set up perfectly for him to win another Group 1.
There are plenty of Group 1 winners in opposition in a large field of 19, but in most cases their successes have seemed opportunistic – Time For Sandals’ 25-1 Commonwealth Cup and No Half Measures’ 66-1 July Cup wins are cases in point. Meanwhile, Inisherin and Kind Of Blue have largely struggled to regain their form this campaign, though the latter did shape better in Ireland last time and was only narrowly beaten in this race last season.
At the time of writing (Friday morning), Haydock had avoided the potential deluge of rain on Thursday. While there were a few peppy showers overnight, the ground on the fresh outside track should only be just on the soft side of good. One fact worth pointing out is that the going stick readings suggest the stands side (high numbers) is the place to be on the straight course. There have been significant draw advantages in the past at the track – last year low numbers dominated (2, 5, 6, 4 being the first four stalls home from a field of 16) – but the stick figures suggest there may be a chance of a stands-side Golden Highway, similar to when Little Big Bear won the Sandy Lane here in May 2023.
That shouldn’t significantly impact Lazzat, but if you’re looking for a longer-priced horse to continue the series of surprise sprint results, then Flora Of Bermuda, drawn in 16, is worth considering. She returned to her slow-starting ways last time but ran well in this race last season. Up until that sleepy beginning in the July Cup, she had been breaking and running better. Any cut in the ground will be no issue, and while she is never the fastest into stride, she looks over the odds compared to her fellow domestic sprinters.
There is also a large field lining up for the Old Borough Cup, where MASTER BUILDER 10/1 (15:00 Haydock), who won the race last season, can once again sweep down the outside under William Buick. Alongside a few of his stablemates, it was a quiet beginning to the season for a horse who last campaign looked likely to be a force in the major staying handicaps. As a result, he is only 4lb higher than his win last season. On the face of it, stall 17 is not a plus, but he was very lethargic early on last year, so I expect William Buick will be happy enough to cross behind the field and again look to come with a prolonged run up the centre of the track.
There could also be a hint from 12 months ago in the opening race, the Superior Mile, where it would be no surprise to see significant market support for PRAGUE 5/1 (13:15 Haydock), who was very heavily backed when runner-up in the race last season. He was far too keen last time, and prior to that, ground conditions had been too quick for the bargain-buy Coolmore cast-off. Dylan Cunha is an excellent trainer, and Prague is one to take an early price about – if this has been the objective, it is highly likely to be coupled with market support. Ice Max looks the main threat, as he is also suited by cut in the ground and got no run at Goodwood last time.
Away from Haydock, most eyes will be on Kalpana in the Unibet September Stakes as she looks to put the finishing touches to a potential Arc bid. She avoids a penalty in a much lower-grade contest than when she was second to Calandagan in the King George, with connections opting to take the route they used with Enable for her Arc prep. However, there is a far better opponent in the field than she ever encountered in GIOVELLOTTO 11/4 (13:35 Kempton), and he could well turn over the favourite. He returns to Kempton for the first time since winning on his debut here at odds of 100-1 in 2021 and has since proved a wonderful flag bearer for Marco Botti. He goes well fresh, and I am never comfortable taking a really short price about a horse such as Kalpana in a race that is, in effect, a trial for something better down the line. If things go slightly awry, the future can often act as a detriment to the effort in the present – not ideal for punters. Juddmonte has employed a pacemaker to avoid a crawl, but Satavia seems a somewhat strange choice given she is rated just 60, so she doesn’t exactly look a Qirat!
There are also a couple of races that, while not especially appealing as betting races, are worth pointing out. The clash between Bow Echo and Publish in the 13:50 at Haydock could see impressive performances from either, potentially featuring prominently in ante-post quotes for next season’s 2000 Guineas. Bow Echo was very impressive in demolishing a field at Newbury on debut, while Publish caught the eye with a luckless defeat on debut at Sandown before winning there last time, defeating a solid performer in Catullus who came from a very strong form race.
Regular readers will also note that our flagship bearer and hat-trick lander Tenability does not feature in the selections this week despite running in Ascot’s 15:15. This is solely due to concerns about the soft ground – he is by Frankel and wears a tongue tie – and the presence of a rival I respect in Daiquiri Bay. Tenability could well land the four-timer, but on this occasion I won’t be burdening him with a selection.
A winner from my tracker saved the day last weekend, and another crops up this week in the shape of RUSSET GOLD / (16:25 Ascot), who finally has his preferred soft ground on his return to handicap company. He clocked the fastest final two furlongs of the whole field when finishing off strongly at Chester despite only finishing seventh and hanging as if feeling the ground. Warren Fentiman claims a handy 5lb and was placed in Group company over course and distance last season. He would like the ground to be genuinely soft – the straight course at Ascot can dry very quickly – but is one to keep an eye on between now and the end of the season.
