The horse racing ambassador picks out his best bets for this weekend's racing in the UK, with two selections each from Haydock and Ascot.
A varied week with a full range of weather conditions over the past seven days, with the dry period being replaced by first snow and now the prospect of significant rain before and during racing at Haydock.
Dry weather had blighted the card at Exeter on Monday – and Plumpton the same day – with a total of just 27 runners spread over the 7 races. I have always found this sort of day the hardest to commentate on as, in many races, so little happens over such a long period of time, but Freddie Gingell helped provide a decent storyline – following up his success in the Paddy Power Gold Cup by riding a first career treble and providing further evidence that Paul Nicholls’ string are largely up and running.
Next up, the Newbury Gallops morning as part of the build up to the Coral Gold Cup, which featured only one less runner than the card at Exeter! This morning has really gathered momentum in recent years and this was both the largest number of participants and stables involved since its inception. The provision of a good strip of ground and an away day to sharpen the mind is a key component of the final stages of getting horses to their seasonal debuts, and the opportunity for Newbury members to see the horses and hear from the trainers is exactly the sort of ‘added value’ racing should be looking to provide for its more ardent fans.
Deciphering the work can be tricky, though everyone – including the markets – had their say on Constitution Hill coming off second best in his spin with Sir Gino, and it has now become apparent that the Champion Hurdle winner is lame. Sir Gino is reportedly bound for a novice chasing career, and it will be interesting to see whether he does take up his engagement at Kempton on Monday or is held back and declared at the five-day stage for Newcastle.
Often it is the younger horses who can be the most interesting, and one is added to the Stable Tracker below. The morning also concluded with my first ante post bet of the season in an unusual market – Dan Skelton to be Champion Trainer this campaign. This has been on my mind for a while as Dan has adopted the same strategy as he did when given Harry Skelton his jockeys’ title, namely getting up and running very quickly. A quick tot up on the sums made me think that in what is a three-runner race alongside Wilie Mullins and Paul Nicholls, he has a lead that would require Mullins to win a massively high percentage of the feature races to even make it worthwhile attempting a repeat bid. With Henderson likely to be back in the game this Festival, amassing such riches at Cheltenham will be harder and prices like even money for Skelton make plenty of appeal.
Rain could be the feature of the Betfair Chase and that, coupled with an excellent course record, makes ROYAL PAGAILLE 7/2 (15:05 Haydock) the selection. With ground conditions the way they have been, the stable have had very few runners, but a repeat bid in this race is likely to be much more of a target than for a few of his rivals. Grey Dawning is the most interesting runner as last season’s novices face more seasoned campaigners, but he missed his intended prep run at Wetherby due to the ground and if it gets really deep by race time the 3m could stretch him first up.
Elsewhere on the ITV coverage, PUNTA DEL ESTE 17/2 (13:15 Haydock) didn’t get the rub of the green on his reappearance at Carlisle, which showed he could be well handicapped and will have fitness on his side. He is another who would benefit from rain and can hopefully swell the Skelton coffers a bit more!
The inaugural Berkshire National at Ascot can go the way of DUKE OF DECEPTION 11/2 (14:05 Ascot), who had a pipe opener over hurdles in preparation for this last time. The Chase course at Ascot is sharper than it looks so hopefully he will be ridden closer to the pace than his last run over fences at Perth, where he got too far back.
The sharp track angle can play into the hands of SANS BRUIT 3/1 (15:20 Ascot) who just ran out of steam having set a strong gallop in the Haldon Gold Cup last time. Like 12 months ago, Harry Cobden has chosen to ride at Ascot rather than Haydock, and it paid dividends with a four timer. He has plenty of chances again, including Pic D’Orhy, but I remain happier backing Nicholls horses that have had a run under their belts rather than first up.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
Two riders heading for venues where they have tasted success over the course of their careers in terms of winners ridden compared to market expectations.
Huntingdon: Connor Brace (13/54, A/E 2.13). His rides include the hurdling debut of Horace’s Pearl (13:23), who Conor rode to all his three bumper wins including a Grade 2 at Aintree’s National meeting.
Newcastle: Tommie Jakes (16/68, A/E 2.00). Three rides, including the enigmatic Judgement Call (16:10), who was caught in the last strides earlier this month.
STABLE TRACKER
No runners at all this week, and the one addition comes from a slightly unusual source – the gallops morning at Newbury, where Only Way Is Up caught the eye as part of Dan Skelton’s four horses working that morning.
A full list of tracker horses can be found here.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE
(Actual winners v Expected Winners, A/E Ratio Par = 1.00)
Selections: 60/59.19, A/E 1.01
Jockeys For Courses: 58/58.98, A/E 0.98
Stable Tracker: 29/31.31, A/E 0.93
Total Performance: 147/149.48, A/E 0.98
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