Sprint handicap to go the way of Andrew Balding veteran for third year running
Possibly the toughest handicap of the weekend is the 2.35 at Doncaster where 18 runners compete over 5f.
Demora is likely to be popular after bouncing back to form last time out, beating the very progressive Maljaa in the process. He won’t find it as easy to dominate this bigger field though and front runners don’t tend to do so well at this venue.
The winner of this race could end up being a horse that was beaten 6.5 lengths in that race.
Strictly speaking an 8lb turnaround in the weights shouldn’t see Dungannon get the better of Demora here but it’s interesting that the 8yo veteran Dungannon normally peaks around this time of year and he is now back down to the mark off which he won this race last year.
He also won this race two years ago off a 4lb higher mark. Admittedly, he has hit form ahead of this race for the past two years and hasn’t done so this term but he has shown glimmers of improvement recently, particularly at Haydock two starts ago.
He’s dropped 7lbs in the handicap since that effort and will undoubtedly have been aimed at this race for some time and he’s fancied to gain a 4th course success.
Confessional is a big danger, he’s run really well on his last three starts and is still 5lbs below his last winning mark.
He does find getting his head in front difficult though (has finished 2nd five times since his last win) so appeals more as an each way play or as a forecast bet.
Moon can land Newbury’s feature handicap
Newbury has it’s own big field handicap to solve at 3.00 and again we could be looking at an 8yo winner.
Some might argue that something more unexposed should be winning this race but there are only two 3yos in the field and both of those struggled to beat a rival on their latest start.
Silvery Moon has been running well of late, he took advantage of a dropping handicap mark when winning easily 4 starts ago and has since run well in defeat off this sort of mark.
He hasn’t really had his conditions though, he is best served by 10f and a bit of cut these days and he has exactly that here. He should go very well at a decent price.
Examiner has more obvious claims based on his third in the Cambridgeshire last time out but he’s not the most consistent and is 3 from 6 on the all weather compared to 0 from 10 on turf.
Foundation fancied to enhance Derby credentials in Racing Post Trophy
The class race of the day is the Racing Post Trophy and there is a fair chance we’ll see next year’s Derby winner with the front two in the betting facing off here.
Foundation is the 4/5 favourite to win this and extend his unbeaten record to 4. He is closely matched with Deauville (7/2) based on their Royal Lodge 1-2 but Foundation was a bit better than the bare result that day and the softer ground here is likely to suit him more than Deauville.
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