The horse racing broadcaster offers up his best bets for Tuesday at Cheltenham, including a pick in the feature race of the day, the Champion Hurdle.
And so it begins. Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival, likely starting on mainly good to soft ground, with a longer‑than‑usual run from the last on the hurdles course and a 75th birthday for J. P. McManus, whose troops seem to have been assembled for a first‑day assault.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (13:20)
This includes one of the most hyped horses of the week, Mighty Park, who comes to the Supreme rather than the Turners, with his trainer making lofty comparisons to past stable stars. He locks horns with the major British hope Old Park Star from the yard that has given us Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill. He has been a little more visible than Mighty Park, having moved from Paul Nicholls at the end of last season, but at the prevailing prices TALK THE TALK 7/2 (13:20 Cheltenham) is preferred. His form lines with the likes of Skylight Hustle, Ballyfad and El Rasko Grey will be well tested this week, and it was his defeat of the latter pair at the Dublin Racing Festival that caught the eye. Poorly placed in a steadily run race, he produced a very taking turn of foot to lead on the line — a performance which deserves upgrading — and his claims look to have more substance than some of his rivals at this stage.
The Arkle looks to be an Anglo‑Irish clash between LULAMBA 6/4 (14:00 Cheltenham) for the home team, up against Irish pair Kopek Des Bordes and Kargese, both of whom won at last year’s Festival. Kopek Des Bordes won the Supreme and at that stage looked a real potential star, but suffered defeat afterwards at Punchestown and comes here off the back of just one run over fences in November. Connections opted to miss the Dublin Racing Festival due to the deep ground, and the connections of Kargese may wish they had done the same, as she seemed to have a very gruelling race when narrowly beaten by Romeo Coolio (who goes for the Brown Advisory). They walked home that day, and how she fares could be an early indicator as to whether those who ran at Leopardstown may find that races there have left a mark. Lulamba has the five‑year‑old stat (0–12 since the allowances were changed) to overcome, but has followed a well‑trodden path for Henderson horses, including a run outside novice company when winning the Game Spirit at Newbury. By his trainer’s own admission he is likely to prove more of a Ryanair/King George horse down the line, so the first four fences will be crucial, but his strength in the finish up the hill can prove decisive.
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (14:40)
The first handicap of the week is the repositioned Fred Winter, where only 10 lb cover the 22 runners, and one of the leading fancies, Munsif, finds himself as first reserve, so he will need something to come out before 13:00 on Friday to get a run. This is a bit of a minefield, but it could be the first of a couple of birthday wins for the Green and Gold courtesy of MANLAGA 13/2 (14:40 Cheltenham). He first caught my attention when he appeared at the Newbury gallops morning in November, accompanying some higher‑profile stablemates, including Constitution Hill. A winner in France, he made his ground quite quickly when beating the re‑opposing Pourquoi Pas Papa at Haydock, with The Mighty Celt in third, and he can confirm the form here.
The McManus silks can also be to the fore in the first handicap chase of the week, the Ultima. The surprising decision to bypass Kelso with Grand National favourite Iroko and run here instead sets a bit of a poser. Up until that point, JAGWAR 7/2 (15:20 Cheltenham) had been a solid favourite, so why is a backup deemed necessary? It may well be that connections simply want two strings to their bow as part of the birthday battalions, and Jagwar still has plenty going for him. Rapidly progressive last season and winner of the Plate at the Festival, it was felt earlier in the campaign that he could be running in Graded races by now. Instead, he has twice placed in handicaps: the first time undone by a steady pace, and latterly, somewhat surprisingly, not getting past Donnacha despite travelling strongly. He steps up in trip for the first time (a top‑four finish would qualify him for the Grand National, for which he holds an entry) and that can bring further improvement. Traditionally this is a race for the home team, but the Irish‑trained The Short Go deserves a mention, having finished fifth last year despite a bad error halfway. Repeat performers tend to do well in this.
The feature race on Day 1 is the Champion Hurdle, a division which has endured a chaotic 12 months since this day last year, when the falls of Constitution Hill and State Man presented the race to Golden Ace. She is the only one of the trio to make it back this year and is joined, as last year, by Brighterdaysahead (who ran poorly last season), but this time also by Lossiemouth, who arrives with cheekpieces applied for the first time. Her record at the track and faster ground can see her competitive, but THE NEW LION 3/1 (16:00 Cheltenham) can give away the 7 lb to the mares. He laid the infamous Challow bogey to rest when winning the Turners at last year’s Festival and won the International here last time when ridden for a turn of foot, in a race marred by the injury to another absentee today, Sir Gino. Dan Skelton has only ever had two big‑priced runners in the race before but is represented in all four feature races this week, and success here would virtually seal his first trainers’ title. Last season the head‑to‑head clashes with Willie Mullins all went Closutton’s way, but the tables can be turned.
The last two races on the opening day can again see Skelton on the mark with MADARA 7/2 (16:40 Cheltenham), for whom the reapplication of cheekpieces could be a big help. Off for over a year before running at Wetherby in December, he looked to be given a prep for this last time at Kempton. Placed off this mark here in the past, he looks to hold a leading chance.
Finally, in the National Hunt Chase, ONE BIG BANG 8/1 (EW) (17:20 Cheltenham) can gain a reward for his consistency. Fifth in the Pertemps Final over hurdles last year, he needs producing late in his races as he can think the job is done, but the test of stamina looks right up his street. The slight concern about his desire to win makes him more of an each‑way angle.
