Using six criteria from the last 17 years, we establish the players likeliest to triumph at golf's third major...
Old man’s game
The windy conditions at links courses make the Open a unique test, and one that it typically takes players a few years to master.
It’s no surprise that the more experienced heads have had much more success in this event than any other major in recent years.
Nine of the last 13 Open champions have been at least 35-years-old, and five of the last six have been 39 or above.
That means young guns like Jordan Spieth and Irish Open winner Jon Rahm can be ruled out, while Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler will also have to buck that recent trend to triumph.
You can, however, be too old to win the Open.
No one over the age of 43 has lifted the Claret Jug in the past 17 years, so it’s fair to write off 47-year-old Phil Mickelson, 45-year-old Padraig Harrington and 44-year-old Lee Westwood’s chances.
A good result in a previous Open is also a must for any potential winner, as 12 of the last 13 champions had already placed inside the top six.
Back the best
There have been very few shock winners at the Open in recent years.
Darren Clarke and Louis Oosthuizen are the only champions in the last 12 editions of the tournament to win while being ranked outside of the world’s top 40, and three of the last four winners were top-10 players at the time of their success.
It’s especially difficult for an outsider to win at Royal Birkdale, where eight of the nine Open winners are in the World Golf Hall of Fame, and the ninth – Harrington – is soon to be.
Career wins are a good barometer for top-quality, experienced players, and 13 of the last 17 winners at the Open had triumphed at least six times on the PGA and European Tours before taking the title.
That means emerging talents like Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood and US Open champion Brooks Koepka should be avoided.
Making links
Links form heading into the Open is hugely important.
Six of the last seven winners played in the Scottish Open the week before they won the claret jug, five of whom managed to make the cut.
That’s good news for Rickie Fowler, who finished ninth at Dundonald a week ago, along with Henrik Stenson and Adam Scott.
Joint-favourites Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth, meanwhile, both shirked the chance to play on a links course heading into this championship, and could be short of form as a result.
Of the last 17 winners, 15 made the cut in their last start before the Open, with Oosthuizen and Stewart Cink the only anomalies.
So while Rory McIlroy took the chance to play in the Scottish Open, it’s difficult to back him given that he missed out on the final two days.
Profile of a winner
Taking all of these criteria into consideration, only two players fit the bill.
Reigning champion Henrik Stenson finished 26th at the Scottish Open last week, and looks to have shaken off his poor form from the start of the year.
The world No. 8 has 14 career wins to date, and is good value at {ODDS:99873553:25/1}.
The same goes for Adam Scott, who finished second to Ernie Els at the Open in 2012.
The Australian made the cut at Dundonald last week, has racked up 20 wins over the course of his career and can be backed at {ODDS:99873555:28/1}.
Aside from those few, a handful of players fit all but one of our criteria, including Masters champion Sergio Garcia.
His lack of links form is a concern, given that he missed the Scottish Open, but the Spaniard did finish second at the Open in 2014.
It’s no surprise to see him among the favourites at {ODDS:99873556:18/1}.
Paul Casey also elected not to play in Scotland, but fits the rest of the criteria and looks a good each-way bet at {ODDS:99873583:33/1}.
Finally, Americans Matt Kuchar and Brandt Snedeker are intriguing outsiders who can be backed at big each-way prices of {ODDS:99873572:50/1} and {ODDS:99873575:80/1} respectively.
Insider knowledge
Who designed Royal Birkdale?
Royal Birkdale was founded in 1889 but was extensively redesigned by Frederick Hawtree and JH Taylor, who are responsible for the current layout.
The course has been worked on by three generations of the Hawtree family of golf course architects. In 1993, Martin Hawtree – the grandson of Frederick – modernised the layout and rebuilt all 18 of the greens.
