Using six criteria from the last 17 years, we establish the players likeliest to triumph at Erin Hills 2017…
Young man’s game
Of all US Open winners since 2000, 13 were younger than 33 at the time of their victory and none were older than 37.
That rules out 41-year-old Henrik Stenson, 38-year-old Matt Kuchar and 39-year-old Paul Casey in this year’s tournament, while Sergio Garcia (37) and Justin Rose (36) are also perhaps too old.
The US hasn’t really been an event for the young guns, either, with Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth – all special talents – the only under-25 winners since 2000.
Twenty-four-year-old Daniel Berger has little chance of winning, then, while Jon Rahm – gifted though he is – should be avoided.
Nationality is more of a toss-up, but it’s worth noting that just four of the last 17 winners of this event have been European.
Been here before
The fact that the US Open is held at a different course every year might suggest that previous performance at the event shouldn’t matter too much.
The USGA tend to set up the venues in a similar way, though, with very penal rough and narrow fairways.
History says that previous success in the US Open is a must for a potential winner, as 15 of the last 17 winners had finished inside the top 20 at least once before.
That bodes poorly for Alex Noren, Francesco Molinari and Berger, all of whom have had numerous cracks at the tournament but never reached the top 20.
Thomas Pieters, meanwhile, would be the first debutant to win the US Open should he top the standings on Sunday night.
Because this event is traditionally so tough, the top players tend to shine.
That is reflected in the fact that 11 of the last 17 winners were inside the top 20 of the world rankings at the time of their triumph.
Coming on strong
Much is made of golfers needing peak at the right time for a major, and there is certainly some truth to that idea at the US Open.
Of the last 17 winners, 13 came into the event on the back of a top-20 finish in their previous start, and only Webb Simpson bounced back from a missed cut to win.
That means Dustin Johnson’s missed cut at the Memorial Tournament is a major concern for his backers, and the same applies to Rahm and Rickie Fowler.
Fellow contenders Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama and Henrik Stenson are all also coming off disappointing results, and don’t appear to be in the form to win this weekend.
It’s also possible to peak too early, with only Tiger Woods and Graeme McDowell following up a win in their previous start to become the US Open champion.
So while Berger and Jason Dufner will be confident after their recent wins, it’s unlikely either will go back-to-back.
Picking a champion
A few players fit the majority of our main criteria this weekend.
Spieth – the 2015 winner – might seem an obvious pick at {ODDS:95519760:12/1}.
The world No. 5 simply has to be backed, though, given that he made the cut in this event last year and picked up a top-20 spot in his last start.
That he reached the quarter-finals of the US Amateur at this course in 2011 is a nice little bonus, too.
Day also fits the bill, having finished eighth at Oakmont last year and 15th in his last start. His sketchy recent form means he’s not quite as appealing to back at {ODDS:95519736:14/1}, however.
Justin Thomas has enjoyed a breakthrough year on the PGA Tour and is worth a look at {ODDS:95519950:33/1}, despite never having finished higher than 32nd at this event.
Kevin Kisner, meanwhile, would fit all our criteria had he been born just four months later. He should be backed at {ODDS:95519964:50/1}.
Charl Schwartzel is a fine outside shout at {ODDS:95519940:60/1}.
The 2011 Masters champion finished second in his last start at the St Jude Classic, 23rd at last year’s US Open and has placed inside the top-10 at this event before.
Finally, Billy Horschel is worth backing at {ODDS:95519945:80/1}. The American’s world ranking lets him down, but he fits the remainder of our criteria and is a four-time winner on the PGA Tour.
