With a style perfectly suited to the long, open course, the Northern Irishman is poised to win his second successive FedEx Cup event - just as he did in 2012
Winner: Rory McIlroy – {ODDS:106239947:5/1}
It’s hard to look past McIlroy here, a week after his first PGA Tour win in 15 months.
The Northern Irishman has the perfect game for Crooked Stick, and he won the BMW by two strokes the last time it was held at this course.
The top player off the tee this year, he has the best par-five scoring average on the PGA Tour and tends to play well in clusters.
That is certainly the case at present, considering he won at TPC Boston despite a four-over-par start from the first three holes.
McIlroy won two of the FedEx Cup’s four events, including this one, in 2012 – a feat that other players have emulated in each of the three years since.
Considering his form and history on this course, the 27-year-old is on track to continue that trend.
Top five finish: Patrick Reed – {ODDS:106239872:7/2}
Reed is the current FedEx Cup points leader after he won the Barclays at Bethpage Black by a single shot two weeks ago.
The American followed that up by tying for fifth in the Deutsche Bank, and another high finish would put him in a strong position to win the entire competition.
Reed is playing as well as anyone at the moment: he has placed outside of the top 13 in just one of his last seven starts and only Dustin Johnson has recorded more top-10 finishes this year.
Reed is playing his best golf at the end of a season in which he has ranked 13th in total shots gained, and he will again be in contention to win this weekend.
Top 10 finish: Russell Knox – {ODDS:106239886:9/2}
Knox was our longshot at the Deutsche Bank, and he almost got himself into contention with a six-under-par front nine on the final day in Boston.
The Scotsman ultimately finished eight shots behind McIlroy in a tie for 15th place, but it was another solid outing for the player who has prioritised this competition after missing out on the Ryder Cup team.
Knox now has now finished in the top 15 three times in six starts, and that includes his impressive win at the Travelers Championship last month.
The 31-year-old may lack the distance off the tee to match bombers like McIlroy around this 7,516-yard course.
But he is an accurate ball-striker, ranking fourth in greens in regulation percentage this season, and that should be an advantage when approaching Crooked Stick’s small putting surfaces.
Longshot: J.B. Holmes – {ODDS:106240090:66/1}
Currently 42nd in the FedEx Cup standings, Holmes faces elimination from the competition if he fails to record a high finish this weekend.
That would be disastrous for his Ryder Cup hopes, as he battles Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson, Matt Kuchar and Jim Furyk for the wildcard spots.
A strong performance is needed at the BMW, then, and Holmes has the power game to navigate the challenges of this course.
The 34-year-old is averaging the third-longest drive on the PGA Tour this year, and he is fifth in shots gained off the tee.
First round leader: Justin Rose – {ODDS:106239920:28/1}
Rose’s T57 finish at the Deutsche Bank may not look impressive at first glance.
The Olympic champion was in contention until he reached the 64th hole at TPC Boston, though, and dropped 10 shots in a miserable six-hole stretch.
Rose was in contention before then, and should put that ill-timed blip behind him with a fast start at Crooked Stick.
The Englishman ranks sixth in total shots gained this season, ninth from tee to green, and – crucially for this market – fourth in round-one scoring average.
