Our research proves why Kane will not defend his title, which strikers cannot catch up, and who will claim the award...
Starting fast
Of the 17 Golden Boot winners since 2000, 10 had scored at least eight times after their club’s first 11 Premier League games.
That is good news for Diego Costa ({ODDS:96636694:11/4}) and Sergio Aguero ({ODDS:96636690:9/4}) – the only players to have reached that mark this season.
Conversely, only four players in the history of the Premier League have won the Golden Boot after scoring fewer than four times in the first 11 games, and just one has done so since 1999.
That was Cristiano Ronaldo, who netted three times despite being banned for three games.
Interestingly, each of the top scorers from the last six seasons had scored a hat-trick after 11 games.
Romelu Lukaku ({ODDS:96636693:9/1}) is well-placed, then, as he is the only player to have bagged a treble so far this season.
Big-club bias
Don’t lump all your money on the Everton striker just yet, though.
A club’s league position has proved an important factor in deciding the Premier League’s top scorer.
The last 16 winners of the Golden Boot played for a side that finished in the top four in that year, and seven of those won the title.
Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United have produced the most winners over that period, with a combined total of 12.
This year’s award, then, will most likely be claimed by a forward from one of the division’s elite sides.
No player in Premier League history has won the Golden Boot and finished lower than 11th in the table.
So you can forget about Jermain Defoe ({ODDS:96636704:28/1}) of 20th-placed Sunderland.
History repeats?
The Premier League has had plenty of fantastic forwards, so Golden Boot awards have been spread thin.
Only two of the last 11 winners had claimed the award previously, and just six players in history have topped the charts in more than one season.
Hope remains, then, for Costa, Eden Hazard ({ODDS:96636707:22/1}) and Alexis Sanchez ({ODDS:96636698:14/1}), who are yet to win the award.
A player’s scoring total, however, has proven to be a good indicator of their Golden Boot chances in the following year.
Only two top scorers in history failed to hit double figures in the season before taking top spot, while 13 of the 17 winners since 2000 had scored 17 goals or more in the previous campaign.
Know your role
A goal-leeching team-mate can prove fatal to a striker’s Golden Boot chances.
On average, winners have netted 34 per cent of their team’s goals.
Only Dimitar Berbatov has dipped below the 30 per cent mark in the past seven seasons, while Dwight Yorke is the sole player to claim the award after bagging less than a quarter of his side’s strikes.
So Roberto Firmino ({ODDS:96636711:33/1}), Sadio Mane ({ODDS:96636725:20/1}) and Phillippe Coutinho ({ODDS:96636734:50/1}) – who have each scored at least five times this season – will all likely fall short.
Unsurprisingly, staying fit and being a key member of the first team is another must for a Golden Boot winner.
Berbatov aside, no player has ever claimed the award after starting less than 79 per cent of his side’s matches.
And being a team’s primary penalty taker also benefits a Golden Boot hopeful.
Of the last 18 winners of the award, 12 took penalties regularly, and seven of those scored at least six spot kicks in their winning season.
What makes a winner?
Looking at the average Golden Boot winner from the Premier League’s 24 years, a few of this season’s top contenders can already be written off.
Jamie Vardy ({ODDS:96636695:66/1}) and Harry Kane ({ODDS:96636691:25/1}) were excellent last season, tallying 24 and 25 goals respectively in the Premier League.
But considering they have combined for just five goals in the campaign’s first 11 games, their chances of reaching similar numbers are slim.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic ({ODDS:96636692:10/1}), meanwhile, was the most prolific of anyone last season by some distance.
His age is an obvious warning sign, though.
The Swede would be the oldest winner ever if he topped the scoring charts this year, as well as the first player to win the Golden Boot in his first season in England.
Sanchez and Firmino have made good starts in unfamiliar centre-forward roles, but their teams spread the goals around too much for them to stand a chance.
The same is true of Hazard, who will surely defer to his Chelsea team-mate Costa in the goal-scoring stakes.
And the Belgian’s role as penalty taker means Costa is also unlikely to maintain a challenge.
Which leaves the Aguero and Lukaku as the likeliest pair.
The Argentine fits the profile of a winner and has claimed the award once before.
That he has started over 30 games just once in the Premier League, though, is worrying.
Lukaku, meanwhile, has proven his durability, enjoyed a productive campaign last season and has bagged that elusive hat-trick early on.
Providing Everton can continue to provide scoring opportunities for him, he has the ability to extend the recent run of first-time winners.
