Big Bet Manifesto: 20 Premier League betting rules to live by
Make the smart bets and avoid the silly ones with these gambling guidelines for the new season in the top flight.
1. Back a Golden Boot outsider each-way
In five of the last six seasons, at least one player has finished inside the top four in the Golden Boot race at odds of 66/1 or better.
Mohamed Salah won the award at 66/1 last season, so it’s worth having a punt on a couple of big prices this time around, too.
2. Stay away from Harry Kane in August…
The hoodoo is overblown, but Kane has never scored in the first month of the Premier League season.
He is likely start slowly once again, having only trained for less than a week following his post-World Cup holiday.
3. … but back him to score braces from September onwards
Kane scores in clusters, with two thirds of his 30 league goals last season coming in braces and hat-tricks.
So, if you’re going to back him to find the net, then you may as well trust him to do so more than once.
4. Lay promoted teams on the opening day
Premier League new boys often endure a tough time in their opening match of the season.
Of the 21 teams to have been promoted from the Championship since 2011/12, only three have managed to win.
5. Wait for Bournemouth to wake up
Eddie Howe’s side have lost on the opening weekend in each of their three Premier League seasons, twice to teams that went on to be relegated.
After the Cherries were beaten in each of their first four games last term, they are best avoided until the middle of September.
6. Back against Burnley while they remain in Europe
Cumulatively, Premier League clubs outside the traditional top six have won just 20 of their last 63 matches following a Europa League tie, with Everton winning just one of eight last season.
Should Burnley qualify for the group stages this term, it'd be no surprise if they experience something similar.
7. Never back Arsenal against the big six
Arsenal have won just five and lost 14 of their last 30 league matches against their top-six rivals.
Even if Unai Emery makes them more competitive, that’s still a huge gulf to close on the big occasions.
8. Trust Chelsea to keep clean sheets
Maurizio Sarri is renowned for his thrilling brand of football, but the new Chelsea manager is just as good at building a strong defence.
Sarri’s Napoli side conceded just 29 goals in 38 Serie A games last season, so expect the Blues to be one of the most reliable teams for win-to-nil backers.
9. Back Manchester United to lead at half-time and win
If you fancy Jose Mourinho’s side to win, then back them to be ahead after 45 minutes, too.
United led at half-time on 16 occasions last season and won every single time.
10. Always go over 3.5 goals in Manchester City matches
Exactly half of City’s league matches last season produced at least four goals, including six of their 10 against fellow top-six sides.
The average price of over 3.5 in all City’s matches last season was just over 11/10, so you should be comfortably in profit if you back it every week.
11. Always back unders when Brighton are on the road
Brighton had the worst away record in the division last season, but they never got spanked.
Only five of their 19 away games exceeded 2.5 goals, two of which came during the last week of the season against Man City and Liverpool when safety had already been secured.
12. Never back Watford to score away
The Hornets’ failed to score a single goal in all of their eight away games under Javi Gracia last season.
Having not signed a striker during the summer, Gracia will once again be relying on the same profligate forwards this time around.
13. Don’t back Javi Gracia to be the first manager to go
But that’s not to say that Gracia will necessarily be the first manager to leave his post, despite being favourite to do so.
Watford have a reputation for hiring and firing, but Crystal Palace, Everton, Southampton and Wolves have had the same number of managers during the last three years.
It was only the exceptional circumstances surrounding Marco Silva that convinced the Hornets' owners to veer from their usual policy of waiting until the summer to make a change in the dugout last season.
14. Focus on Fulham for BTTS
Fulham were involved in the second-most BTTS games in the Championship last season, and ended the league campaign by scoring in 24 successive matches.
Slavisa Jokanovic’s side should be just as prolific this term following the signings of Andre Schurrle and Jean Michael Seri.
15. Everton = goals
Ten of Everton’s final 15 league games last season were BTTS, and they should be even more open with Marco Silva in charge.
There were an average of 3.2 goals in the Portuguese's 24 matches in charge of Watford last term.
16. Back Jamie Vardy to score in the big games…
Vardy found the net against every side in the top six last season, becoming the first player ever to do so in a single campaign.
17. … but don’t back Leicester to win them
Vardy was also the first player ever to lose nine games in which he scored last season, while the Foxes lost eight of their 12 matches against top-six sides.
18. Bet against Palace if Wilfried Zaha is out
Palace were as close to a one-man team as you can get in the Premier League last term, losing all nine of their games when Zaha didn’t play.
The 25-year-old has missed an average of 5.5 games over the last four seasons, so there should be a few opportunities to take advantage of his absence this time around.
19. Only back Huddersfield in-play
The Terriers took 2.31 points per game from matches in which they scored first last season – the seventh-highest average in the Premier League.
They also took just two points in total from the 20 occasions in which they conceded first, so hold your fire until the first goal goes in.
20. Go low on cards when Lee Probert referees
Probert only handed out 21 cards in 14 matches last season at an average rate of just 1.5 per game – by far the lowest of any official.
He also only showed more than one card four times, so beware adding bookings into your #BetYourWays if he’s in charge.
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