20 betting rules to live by for the Premier League restart
Make the smart bets and avoid the silly ones with these golden rules, which cover every Premier League club.
1. Back Arsenal to lose their discipline
Arsenal have the Premier League’s joint-worst disciplinary record and have averaged 2.3 yellow cards per game at home.
2. Bet on opposition midfielders to be carded against Villa
Jack Grealish is fouled far more than any other Premier League player – 4.9 times per game, with second-placed Wilfried Zaha fouled 3.2 times per match.
An opposition midfielder has been carded in five of Aston Villa’s last seven games.
3. Don’t back Bournemouth to score
Bournemouth have scored 29 goals after 29 matches, easily their fewest at this stage of the season since promotion. Just 12 of those have come from open play.
4. Trust Brighton to behave themselves
Brighton have the fourth-best disciplinary record in the Premier League, with Liverpool and Leicester being two of the three teams with fewer cards.
5. Avoid Burnley’s slow starts
Burnley have the Premier League’s second-worst record in the first half of matches, and the league’s sixth-best second-half record.
6. Back Jorginho to be carded
Jorginho is the most carded player in the Premier League this season, with 10 bookings in 26 appearances.
7. Go low on goals at Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace’s 15 home matches this season have produced just 25 goals, the lowest goals-per-game ratio of all teams at home in the Premier League.
8. Back DCL to score and get booked
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Everton’s top goalscorer, but also their most carded player – he has been booked in three of his last four games at Goodison Park.
9. Look to Barnes for Leicester goals
Jamie Vardy has only scored two Premier League goals in 2020, while Harvey Barnes has scored five.
10. Back against Liverpool bookings
Liverpool have the Premier League’s best disciplinary record, with just one red card and 26 yellows – five fewer than the next-lowest tally.
11. Be wary of Manchester City
City have lost more games in 2019/20 than they did in the 2018/19 and 2017/18 seasons combined.
12. Go HT/FT with Manchester United
Manchester United led at half time in 11 of their 12 Premier League victories this season.
13. Don’t trust Newcastle to score
No team has scored fewer goals than Newcastle (25), or fewer from open play (12) this season.
14. Back BTTS at Carrow Road
Norwich’s 71 per cent BTTS ratio at home is the highest of any team in the Premier League.
Away from home, that drops all the way down to 26 per cent, the lowest of all 20 teams.
15. Expect narrow wins for Sheffield United
Eight of Sheffield United’s 11 wins this season have come by a one-goal margin, including each of their last five.
16. Back against Southampton at St. Mary’s
Southampton have the worst home record in the Premier League, taking 14 of their 34 points from 15 matches at St Mary’s.
17. Bet on goals if you fancy Spurs
There were over 2.5 goals scored in 10 of the 11 matches that Tottenham have won this season, comfortably the highest proportion in the league.
18. Trust Watford to keep it tight at home
Only Liverpool have conceded fewer goals at home than Watford since Nigel Pearson’s appointment in December.
19. Don’t bet against Moyes’ Hammers at home
West Ham have only lost to Liverpool in five home Premier League matches since David Moyes’ return in December.
20. Wait until half-time to back Wolves
Wolves have the worst first-half record in the Premier League, and the fourth-best second-half record.
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