We single out the biggest underperformers and overachievers in the third tier and discuss who looks set to spring a surprise in 2016
At the top
Such is the level of surprise at their lofty position, the teams who currently make up the division’s top three arguably belong in the ‘Overachievers’ section below – yet at this midway point the time has come to take them seriously as title contenders.
Burton Albion were only promoted from League Two last summer, but have continued their upwards surge to sit three points clear at the top.
It remains to be seen just how much the departure of Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink to QPR will disrupt their momentum, however, with the Brewers 100/30 to secure consecutive championships.
Walsall have also recently lost their manager, but having not lost since Dean Smith was recruited by Brentford and with a game in hand the Saddlers – who finished 14th last season – are 3/1 favourites to finish the season at the summit.
With an average age of just 23, Justin Edinburgh’s Gillingham – who are second top scorers in the league – are another side defying expectations in third after a mid-table finish last season.
Just behind them are Coventry City, who have used the loan system effectively to bring in Joe Cole from Aston Villa, Gael Bigirimana from Newcastle and Jacob Murphy from Norwich.
Still unbeaten at home, Tony Mowbray’s side – who also boast the division’s top marksman in Adam Armstrong – are 5/1 to lift the trophy in May.
Overachievers
Having only been promoted via a penalty shoot-out win over Wycombe at Wembley last summer, Southend United are thriving back in the third tier after a five-year absence.
Phil Brown’s gritty side are currently level on points with the play-offs and are 8/1 to achieve back-to-back promotions.
Port Vale, meanwhile, are just four points behind them.
Having finished in 18th last season and after losing their three top scorers last term to League One rivals in the summer, the Valiants are 9/1 to continue to confound expectations by finishing in the top six.
Look out for
Wigan Athletic took a few weeks to settle following relegation from the Championship and a busy summer of recruitment using a budget their chairman boasted was “five times more than anyone else in League One”.
Yet the Latics have now lost just three matches since the start of September and are 11/2 to storm to the title in the second half of the season.
Peterborough United also endured a slow start to the campaign, and had just eight points to their name when Graham Westley – a manager whose reputation for direct football appeared to clash with the Posh’s recent style – was appointed in September.
His selection appears to have been an inspired one, though, with the division’s top scorers now within the play-off places and 9/2 to go on and be promoted.
Bradford City picked up just 10 points from their first 10 games, but have lost just once since September.
Level on points with Peterborough, the team who narrowly missed out on a play-off spot last time around are 6/1 to return to the second tier this time out.
Last season’s losing play-off finalists Swindon Town, meanwhile, were just outside the relegation zone when they sacked Mark Cooper in mid-October and continued to struggle during the interim period before Martin Ling was hired.
Since then they have won five out of seven to climb into mid-table and look excellent value at 20/1 to finish in the top six.
Underperformers
Now in their fifth season in League One, Sheffield United continue to underwhelm and are currently ninth.
Yet the fact that six of their seven losses have come against sides below them in the table proves that consistency rather than quality is their issue, with the Blades 3/1 to earn Nigel Adkins a fourth promotion from this division in the summer.
Millwall started out as third favourites for the title following relegation last season, and appeared to be heading in the right direction during a nine-match unbeaten run.
But they took four years to bounce back into the Championship last time they found themselves in this division, and four losses in their last six means they could well have to wait a little longer this time around.
Chesterfield made it to the play-off semi-finals last season but have suffered since losing manager Paul Cook to Portsmouth in the summer.
His replacement, Dean Saunders, has also since departed, and having lost their last six in a row the Spireites are 11/4 to cap a miserable season with relegation.
At the bottom
Three teams are currently tied at the foot of the table, with Colchester United – who have conceded a staggering total of 55 goals at an average of 2.5 per game – unsurprisingly propping up the rest.
They have plummeted since a fine run in September which saw them claim 13 of their 20 points to date, and are 10/11 to go down.
Crewe Alexandra’s luck may have finally run out after narrowly surviving for the past two seasons, while things are looking similarly bleak for Oldham Athletic who have won just one home game so far.
The biggest surprise in the battle to avoid the drop is Barnsley who were expected to push on from their mid-table finish last season following a productive summer.
Currently occupying the final relegation spot, the one-time Premier League side are 12/5 to slip into the bottom tier.
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury Town hover just above the dotted line, with even Blackpool in 17th position still in immediate trouble.
The Tangerines may currently be four points clear, but a recent run of seven consecutive defeats and continued turmoil off the pitch means that they still have the potential to implode – with them 4/5 to suffer back-to-back relegations.
READ: Football League review: How do the teams compare in our League Two half-time report?
