The former Counter-Strike professional previews the series between fnatic and astralis, with the winner poised to pocket a €4,000 prize
This week Fight Night returns, powered by Betway.
The Swedes of fnatic won the two previous ones last year, beating TSM (now astralis) and EnVyUs in the best-of-five series.
This time they will go up against astralis, the team they defeated 2-0 in what was basically the grand final of ESL Barcelona Invitational on Sunday.
The current fnatic roster has won all five tournaments they have attended since adding dennis in late 2015, and thus will obviously go into this series as the favorites to win the €4,000 prize.
astralis, on the other hand, have struggled for nearly six months – though their play has recently improved, coming very close to defeating fnatic on map one before another near-collapse at the end of dust2 in Barcelona.
With five maps being played, map pools play a key part in determining the winner. astralis will not play cobblestone, so their sole veto is already known.
However, fnatic will most likely ban mirage against the Danes, giving us a map pool of dust2, train, inferno, cache and overpass.
Let’s break the series down on a map-by-map basis.
Overpass is a map astralis plays far more than fnatic, who have only played two games on it offline with dennis – including a loss to SK, a far weaker Danish side than astralis.
It was also fnatic who vetoed the map in both games on Sunday.
But astralis’s record is not stellar on the map, either, which suggests it is going to be up for grabs.
While dust2 is not a bad map for either team – and astralis were within an inch of beating fnatic on it on Sunday – fnatic has yet to lose on it offline in 2016. Advantage, fnatic.
The Black and Orange side’s offline record on train is bad – the only team they have bested on it with dennis are EnVyUs and NiP. It was also vetoed by them both times at ESL, making astralis slightly favoured.
Cache is olofmeister’s home. They have only lost on the map once with dennis, wheras astralis’s spotty record includes losses to EnVyUs, SK, fnatic and an overtime win over G2. Clear advantage, fnatic.
Finally, inferno. fnatic beat astralis 16-13 on it and are generally stronger on the map – as seen by their good record ever since dennis joined.
To sum up: fnatic are favoured cache, inferno and dust2. astralis have a slightly better record on train, and overpass is up for grabs.
Technically that would lead to a 3-1-1 record and, considering each team’s form over the past few months, it would be impossible not to favour the team led by flusha and vuggo in this series – even if a showmatch for money will not warrant the same kind of preparation as a real tournament.
That is key, though – this is still a showmatch at the end of the day, even with a large sum of money on the line.
It is not the same as playing a grand final of a big tournament, and fnatic have lost games, and even series, to other teams in group stages – simply not when it matters the most.
That is astralis’s chance here and it is something they could snowball into real confidence in the match-up in the future.
If you agree with me, you might want to consider the following: place bets on fnatic to win with a -1.5 map handicap at 1.65 times money and hedge that with 1.25 on astralis with +2.5 maps.
Finally, wager a bet on the series taking over 3.5 maps at 1.32 times money.
It is as close to a safe bet as fnatic winning the series, because five-map games hardly ever finish 3-0.
