The Analyst believes that the tourists can take control by making the most of their lower-order batting and learning lessons from their bowling
The third Test and therefore the series is beautifully poised: England 75 behind with five wickets in hand.
They will have to bat last, so a lead of at least 50 on first innings is imperative.
England have the counter-attacking lower order who, in company with Joe Root, can make this happen. It should be a lively first session on Saturday.
A par score on this lively pitch is 300.
The ball moves and bounces enough to keep the fast bowlers interested, but if they get carried away – as South Africa’s did on the second afternoon, overdoing the short stuff against Ben Stokes and Root – the scoreboard whirrs round, with England scoring at almost six an over in that period.
Discipline – as mentioned in the preview – is crucial, both for bowlers to try and maintain a full length, and batters to know which balls to leave early on and which to attack.
There have been a lot of scores in the match between 20 and 40 suggesting that you are never quite ‘in’. A ball with your name on it can come along at any time.
What you don’t want to do is give your wicket away. At least four South Africans did exactly that in the first innings.
England bowled poorly at the start of the match.
It is sometimes hard to immediately adapt to a new ground and it took them a session to understand that you need to bowl a fuller length on this surface.
Once the message sunk in they were much better, and they have one bowler in Steve Finn who is in fantastic rhythm and due to pick up a hatful shortly. He has been consistently England’s best bowler on this tour and cruelly unlucky so far.
When England get to bowl again on the pivotal third day you sense they won’t make the same mistakes as on the first morning.
They will harass South Africa’s top order into mistakes.
And, crucially, South Africa only have one batsman – AB de Villiers – who can really impose himself on the bowlers and wrest control.
England have several initiative-stealers in Root, Stokes, Bairstow and Moeen Ali. This may prove decisive in the final equation, applying intolerable pressure on South Africa’s inexperienced attack.
So with Finn, Root, Stokes and Bairstow all flourishing and confident, England just have the edge in potency and pugnacity.
But they won’t want to be chasing more than 250 on Sunday.
South Africa v England third Test betting
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