The Analyst says England should make the semi-finals, where their ultra-attacking batting will only be a few brief hitting sprees from glory
The T20 World Cup is similar to the football version in one sense.
Home sides rarely win it. In fact, in cricket, they never do. Until now perhaps.
India are red-hot favourites for this tournament with an excellent recent track record of 13 wins from their last 18 T20 international matches.
They have a vast amount of experience mainly derived from the IPL, a battery of match-winning batsmen, and, even more importantly, wicket-taking bowlers – especially spinners.
MS Dhoni knows that he has proven bowlers for every eventuality and that is a huge bonus for a captain.
The off-spinner Ravichandran Ashwin has been a star of the IPL ever since he first took part.
He is reliable, accurate, intelligent, deceptive and can bowl at any stage of the innings against any batsman.
He has perfected the Carrom ball – named after a South Indian game involving flicking counters across a board – and few batsmen can read its movement, which is from leg to off for a right-hander.
He takes wickets regularly and rarely goes for many runs.
The only bowler higher placed than Ashwin in the ICC T20 world rankings – West Indies Sunil Narine – has had to twice modify his action and has been nowhere near as effective since.
Ashwin will love playing in his home conditions, as will his slow-bowling partner Ravi Jadeja, a canny left-arm spinner with a lethal quicker ball.
England are with Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and West indies in the chasing pack.
England and Australia have the most destructive batting units but the most uncertain bowling attacks.
New Zealand and South Africa are slightly better balanced though New Zealand will feel the absence of the retired fire-starter Brendon McCullum.
West Indies are dangerous and have the most impactful powerplay batsman in Chris Gayle and the best death bowler in Dwayne Bravo, but they lack consistency.
Simon’s crunches the numbers on the Super 10’s recent T20 form, and discusses what England must do to be in with a shout in India.
England could easily make the semi-finals.
Before being derailed by an improving South Africa in two games in mid-February they had won six T20s in a row against New Zealand, Australia and Pakistan. They beat New Zealand again in a warm-up on Saturday.
Their batting is ultra-attacking, though relatively untested against top-class spin. Luckily there is not much of that in their group. In fact, in that regard qualifiers Afghanistan might prove the trickiest.
They have to set out to win three of their four group games. They should manage victories against a rebuilding Sri Lanka and an inexperienced, though talented, Afghanistan.
Which means that their first two matches – against West Indies on Wednesday and South Africa on Friday – are the key games.
Both are under lights on the bouncy Mumbai track where it is often better to bat second as the ball skids on more later on in the evening. Encouragingly, England also won their only T20I match here when successfully chasing India’s 177 in 2012.
Adil Rashid will be their key bowler. His disguise – few batsmen seem to be able to pick his googly – and his experience in the Big Bash make him a potential wicket taker at any time.
If he can hold his nerve against the big guns like Gayle and AB de Villiers and England’s slightly suspect fielding holds up then they can reach the last four.
But their fragile bowling – which always seems to be playing catch up after an expensive start – will probably inhibit further progress.
But the beauty of the World T20 is that the title is only ever a few brief hitting sprees away.
READ: Simon Hughes: Add pace to Rashid’s spin and England have a world-beating T20 side
