And in the other World T20 semi-final, the Analyst explains why India's depth and skill might be decisive against the West Indies
The four most consistent T20 teams over the last two years have made it to the ICC World T20 semi-finals.
Two – West Indies and New Zealand – did so comfortably, while England and India had a scare or two.
The teams are well matched, though, and anyone who believes they can confidently predict the finalists – or the winner – is a fool.
England have a marginal advantage over New Zealand because they have played their last two matches – both victories – at the venue for Wednesday’s first semi final: Delhi.
The England batsmen will be better acquainted with the best shots to try and the angles to use and the bowlers with what paces and lengths to bowl.
Fast, pitched-up deliveries disappear off the bat at an even greater speed and shorter bowling at varying paces is harder to time.
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New Zealand have bowlers better able to adapt to the conditions – especially their spinners Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi, who have taken 17 wickets between them in the tournament at paltry cost.
They also bowl at a quicker pace than England’s spinners, while left-arm paceman Mitchell McClenaghan has clever changes of pace.
England’s attack is less deceptive, but they are growing into their roles and the seamers handled the pressure of the Sri Lankan run chase superbly.
There is little to choose between the batting line-ups. Both are well stocked with destructive players and bat deep.
But maybe, just maybe, Joe Root and Jos Buttler are the extra special dimension that cancel out New Zealand’s slight superiority with the ball.
So it may boil down to one over, one catch, one direct hit on the stumps that decides a match that is likely to go down to the wire.
Both teams are likely to want to bat first. Familiarity with the conditions gives England a gossamer-thin advantage.
The Wankhede stadium in Mumbai will be bursting at the seams for the second semi-final.
That places extra pressure on India, but the fact that they have got to this stage without remotely playing to their potential makes them favourites.
They have been over reliant on the brilliant Virat Kohli and, to a lesser extent, MS Dhoni up to now.
Excellent players like Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Darwan are due some runs, while Suresh Raina has not yet fired either.
The key for the West Indies will be to bowl first.
Fired by Kohli, who averages an incredible 91 batting second in international T20s, India seem invincible in a run chase.
West Indies need to keep them to below 200 with their combination of spinners and artful medium pacers – Dwayne Bravo’s excellent changes of pace make him the best death bowler in the world.
Then their middle-order batsmen must back up the inevitable early thrust they will get from Chris Gayle, provided he survives the opening overs from the wily spinner Ravi Ashwin.
If Gayle gets on a roll, West Indies could win.
If he fails to deliver something substantial, India’s depth and skill will take them through.
An India v England final infront of 90,000 people in Calcutta on Sunday?
That will be some event.
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